Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I'm genuinely surprised inflation numbers came in higher than expectations and core (sticky) CPI is going ham, we're going to see an even more hawkish central bank looking to get inflation expectations back under control.

How new vehicle prices are shooting up so intensely after all this, I don't even know. Interest rates are surely going significantly higher.

And my thoughts are I don’t actually trust any of these number/s are correct. Yes, I feel it runs that deep; either human error, incompetence or dishonesty.

 

[AndrewZ]

Houseing a 1/3 of the CPI, and the way they calculate it makes it very slow to change.

You're referring to house prices coming down? But rents are way up if I recall correctly

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You're referring to house prices coming down? But rents are way up if I recall correctly

Housing prices have only just started rolling over and coming lower….and the recent declines have only just started to show up in actual listed sales prices for homes. So it won’t show up in the Aug cpi numbers. Might not even show up in the Sept cpi numbers. And that’s because of the time delay from housing market demand destruction to sellers dropping prices to homes going pending at lower prices and then finally the sale transaction is completed, at which point then it starts impacting the cpi. So you’re talking about a 2-3 month process minimum. It takes one and a half months just to close on a home.

 

[henchman24]

The chicken/egg situation around rents and interest rates are going to be an interesting factor to watch. A good amount of the rentals out there have adjustable rate loans tied to them. The more the Fed raises the rates, the more landlords have to charge to cover their loans... the higher that pushes prices, at least until demand craters.

 

[mongo]

Hmm... Ok. As has been posted, if the claim these are v4 Superchargers was based on the drawing notes, then there's not any reason to give that much credence.

If there's some other unreleased data, I'll be interested in seeing what that may be....

From his other Tweets, the main clue is that the charging pedestal is more centered at the back of the stall instead of offset to the driver's side like Tesla only locations.
Also, Tesla has switched the description to Alternate instead of V4, which seems to make sense as they are still using V3 cabinets and it's mainly a matter of if they are CCS enabled or not.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ukraine pushing Russia out might actually be bad for the markets... Don't take that the wrong way, it is VERY good for humanity and the world that Ukraine has turned the tide. Russia just has more of a reason to act out very aggressively against the west. More drama around energy is likely to happen very soon.

Meh. Everything is bad if it makes WallStreet richer; bad to invade, bad to be pushed out, bad that I had eggs for breakfast.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And my thoughts are I don’t actually trust any of these number/s are correct. Yes, I feel it runs that deep; either human error, incompetence or dishonesty.

For me, the entire calculation is antiqued and outdated. It’s impossible nowadays with things like EV’s and home power generation/storage, work from home/remote work, migration of high paid workers across the country, etc……to get an accurate representation of inflations effect or even how to combat it.

The Fed is walking blind at this point

 

[Drumheller]

And my thoughts are I don’t actually trust any of these number/s are correct. Yes, I feel it runs that deep; either human error, incompetence or dishonesty.

Dishonesty.

The formulas the govt used up until the 80s are in use at ShadowStats and those numbers for inflation much more closely match my observations and those of friends, family, and co-workers I've spoken with.

Food and rent are the worst. Some people are taking loans to buy food. It isn't as obvious as it should be because some people are simply using credit card debt to continue buying the same products and amounts as two years ago but at inflated prices. Of course those people won't receive a bailout like the trillions created from nothing to hand to cronies at the start of Covid lockdowns in 2020.

I'm still working in career. My salary is better than most working people I interact with. My disposable income is at a lower point than the past 8 years of my working career. Inflation has been impacting the working class far more than the official govt stats are showing.

 

[Electroman]

Ukraine pushing Russia out might actually be bad for the markets... Don't take that the wrong way, it is VERY good for humanity and the world that Ukraine has turned the tide. Russia just has more of a reason to act out very aggressively against the west. More drama around energy is likely to happen very soon.

.. and there is a chance that Russia and China might start collaborating more overtly, and turning this into a larger war.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Rivian and Lucid are also strong players today. Starfoxisdown is not complaining about Tesla today so it must be performing better than beta suggest as well.

Give it time, TSLA weakening more and more as the day goes on.

At this point though, it just seeing how resistant TSLA can be with only 13 more trading days until Q3 numbers

 

[insaneoctane]

There have been a lot of comments about the increasing price of FSD mostly they refer to reducing take rate or FSD’s increasing value. My doofus view is that Tesla is piling up cash to refit all cars sold with FSD with the hardware that will actually be needed for it to work. My car was sold to me with the commitment to upgrade any equipment if necessary for true FSD. We have seen hardware 2 1/2 cars getting upgraded computers. We also know hardware 4 computers are under development, and I wouldn’t be surprised if hardware 5 is being blue skyed. Cameras with higher resolution and contrast are needed to see further down the road. Also, there is at least one problem unsolvable with the current camera suite, passing on a two lane road. Too much car has to be exposed when peeking, with centerline cameras. A camera in the drivers side mirror would probably be best. I think Tesla will have to replace all cameras and computers and probably add at least one camera on all FSD cars that are sold under this commitment. Either that or I will be a party to a record class action suit. Your opinion may differ.

I originally disagreed with your post. I have long suspected that the current HW will be "good enough" to claim technical delivery of FSD, while still being able to upcharge you for a HW upgrade that takes safety to a whole new level beyond what was contractually promised (ie 10x safer). But, I've been struggling to understand the $12k and certainly the $15k price point for what FSD actually offers...it's way overpriced for what it is today, and arguably, FSD has always been priced way ahead of it's actual capabilities. But, raising the price to $15K isn't that different than when they stopped selling FSD because they knew every FSD sale at the time was not only going to cost them the HW at the time, but the "included" upgrade....Maybe $15K is the new FSD pause. Tesla taking the improved safety approach I mentioned above certainly wouldn't have good optics for all the early adopters that have not gotten much value from their many years ago FSD purchase...

 

[henchman24]

.. and there is a chance that Russia and China might start collaborating more overtly, and turning this into a larger war.

Chance, but I'd say that risk is small right now. China is many, many things... stupid is not one of them. They clearly see how Russia is doing on the ground in the war. They are not likely to team up to escalate things while Russia looks and is incredibly weak. They will keep trying to help Russia like the West is helping Ukraine to turn the tide in Russia's favor. It'll stay localized for now. I'd say escalation world wide would be at a higher risk if Russia was having more success in Ukraine.

 

[henchman24]

Give it time, TSLA weakening more and more as the day goes on.

At this point though, it just seeing how resistant TSLA can be with only 13 more trading days until Q3 numbers

TSLA's weakening is tied right with the Nasdaq getting weaker. It is basically 1 for 1 right now.

 

[zach_]

Houseing a 1/3 of the CPI, and the way they calculate it makes it very slow to change.

Yes they do a rotating sample that spreads out the +/- change over many years. The idea is roughly is that not everyone is immediately looking to buy a home/rent at any given time, so the full increase in rents/housing costs should not be immediately reflected in CPI. (aside: I can't decide whether this makes perfect sense to me or is complete nonsense) This is why by many measures housing/rent costs are up way more than has been reflected in CPI, and the CPI numbers will continue to "catch up."

According to some data/discussion here, if you were to assume home prices just stayed flat here, it would take ~16-18 months for CPI shelter to flatten. So at the very least, any decline in home prices/rent will not be reflected in CPI shelter for a while. Make of that what you will.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TSLA's weakening is tied right with the Nasdaq getting weaker. It is basically 1 for 1 right now.

No if you've been following the trading action so far this morning, TSLA was actually down less than the Nasdaq for the first hour and a half of trading. TSLA is definitely outperforming it's beta today but we've seen many, many times where TSLA holds up in the first few hours of trading only to give way in the 2nd half of the day.

 

[henchman24]

No if you've been following the trading action so far this morning, TSLA was actually down less than the Nasdaq for the first hour and a half of trading. TSLA is definitely outperforming it's beta today but we've seen many, many times where TSLA holds up in the first few hours of trading only to give way in the 2nd half of the day.

It was less than the Nasdaq to start, then more, and now it is slightly less again... it is moving around.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So what you got for today's close?

I'm going $298.50

 

[EVMeister]

So what you got for today's close?

I'm going $298.50

$294.20.

 

[bkp_duke]

Housing prices have only just started rolling over and coming lower….and the recent declines have only just started to show up in actual listed sales prices for homes. So it won’t show up in the Aug cpi numbers. Might not even show up in the Sept cpi numbers. And that’s because of the time delay from housing market demand destruction to sellers dropping prices to homes going pending at lower prices and then finally the sale transaction is completed, at which point then it starts impacting the cpi. So you’re talking about a 2-3 month process minimum. It takes one and a half months just to close on a home.

Concur. I think it is worth a look at the actual breakdown of what sectors have still crazy high inflation:

Note the dichotomy in Energy. Fuel costs (petrol products and fuel oil) saw large drops in prices, which have now happened 2 months in a row. But Electricity and utility gas did not follow, they continued to rise.

This is extremely concerning because it indicates that the pricing trend from crude oil is either not transmitting through to the manufacturing and utilities chains, or it is more delayed than normal. Or, and this is the cynic in me, some companies are using the "inflation excuse" to push prices up, and we all know utility costs pretty much never come back down once raised.

 

[hitchhiker]

$294.20.

$294.21