Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Here is an example of Oregon's plan for the NEVI funding for the next few years:

View attachment 852582

They are hoping to select contractors and start construction on the FY22 sites in April of 2023.

So they really aren't getting to the rural areas in the next ~4 years. Maybe in the next plan? (for 2025-2028)

I haven't looked for what other states have submitted for plans.

Not sure what you mean by not getting to rural areas. Highway 20 is largely rural, as is much of 26, particularly east of Bend is very "rural". A charge station in Sweet Home or where 126 hits highway 20 would have saved be a ton of time this weekend.

Adding charging along 101 and 20 will be hugely helpful, hopefully Tesla gets some of those locations. Sadly 58 and 126 are missing. Both are sorely missing charging infrastructure.

Addressing the 2 corridors with the highest current coverage is baffling to me though. I5 and 97 are both well covered already and it's almost certain EA and Tesla will continue investing in those corridors. Putting them first is nonsense.

 

[MP3Mike]

Addressing the 2 corridors with the highest current coverage is baffling to me though. I5 and 97 are both well covered already and it's almost certain EA and Tesla will continue investing in those corridors. Putting them first is nonsense.

No Tesla site is currently NEVI compliant so they have to pretend that they don't exist. A lot of EA sites don't qualify either, so those have to be ignored or be upgraded using NEVI funds to make them compliant. So while there is coverage on the main highways, it isn't up to the standards that the NEVI program requires. (Except as you notice the section of I5 between Portland and Eugene is already covered with NEVI complaint sites.)

 

[Electroman]

Not clicking, but I bet Lolora "wrote" it

Of course. You don't need to click to know which low life wrote it.

 

[Ogre]

No Tesla site is currently NEVI compliant so they have to pretend that they don't exist. A lot of EA sites don't qualify either, so those have to be ignored or be upgraded using NEVI funds to make them compliant. So while there is coverage on the main highways, it isn't up to the standards that the NEVI program requires. (Except as you notice the section of I5 between Portland and Eugene is already covered with NEVI complaint sites.)

I think the V4 charging stations are NEVI compliant.

Not sure if Tesla is bidding those in 2023 or not.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not sure what you mean by not getting to rural areas. Highway 20 is largely rural, as is much of 26, particularly east of Bend is very "rural". A charge station in Sweet Home or where 126 hits highway 20 would have saved be a ton of time this weekend.

Adding charging along 101 and 20 will be hugely helpful, hopefully Tesla gets some of those locations. Sadly 58 and 126 are missing. Both are sorely missing charging infrastructure.

Addressing the 2 corridors with the highest current coverage is baffling to me though. I5 and 97 are both well covered already and it's almost certain EA and Tesla will continue investing in those corridors. Putting them first is nonsense.

The scenarios I’m thinking of involve folks that need to travel 100’s of miles a day between rural towns along secondary roads in the dead of winter (I used to be one of those). Level 3 charging is non-existent.

Yes, I’m sure the algorithms try to optimize for the most cost-effective way to serve the most motorists. That doesn’t help these folks.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I think the performance 3/Y are approaching what the lower end of what the S/X used to cost…great for stock holders, awful for customers.

As an owner of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, with FSD (but at less than half the current all-in cost thanks to buying EAP initially and then FSD upgrade on the cheap a few years ago), I worry that if my car gets wrecked or otherwise totalled, the insurance wouldn't come close to covering the cost of replacing the vehicle (since even if I got full value of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, that's nowhere near what the nearest equivalent of a AWD LR Model 3 is now, not to mention FSD). I'd hate to have to sell my TSLA to afford a new Tesla. That's of course ignoring that I might be waiting 3-6 months for the vehicle to be replaced on top of everything. The car a financial stretch at the time, and at the current pricing I couldn't afford it without selling TSLA.

As both a Tesla owner and a TSLA investor, I am hoping the day that pricing returns to "normal" levels and supply meets demand happens sooner than later. And I wouldn't mind if Elon gave up this $15k FSD nonsense, or at least let me buy a hypothetical level 4/5 EAP package for highway usage at a reasonable price, at least (I personally have no use for self driving on city streets beyond it being a cool tech gimmick) - the only reason I bought the FSD upgrade was in hopes of some day having no-nag highway autosteer.

 

[Skryll]

As an owner of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, with FSD (but at less than half the current all-in cost thanks to buying EAP initially and then FSD upgrade on the cheap a few years ago), I worry that if my car gets wrecked or otherwise totalled, the insurance wouldn't come close to covering the cost of replacing the vehicle (since even if I got full value of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, that's nowhere near what the nearest equivalent of a AWD LR Model 3 is now, not to mention FSD). I'd hate to have to sell my TSLA to afford a new Tesla. That's of course ignoring that I might be waiting 3-6 months for the vehicle to be replaced on top of everything. The car a financial stretch at the time, and at the current pricing I couldn't afford it without selling TSLA.

As both a Tesla owner and a TSLA investor, I am hoping the day that pricing returns to "normal" levels and supply meets demand happens sooner than later. And I wouldn't mind if Elon gave up this $15k FSD nonsense, or at least let me buy a hypothetical level 4/5 EAP package for highway usage at a reasonable price, at least (I personally have no use for self driving on city streets beyond it being a cool tech gimmick) - the only reason I bought the FSD upgrade was in hopes of some day having no-nag highway autosteer.

I presume you dont buy your cars cash since you know that inflation pays for interest and the principal is better parked in TSLA appreciating to pay for your car. So in case of 2018 Model 3, you probably already almost paid it off. In that case, if it gets totaled, you get CASH from the insurance company, and finance another model 3 with minimum down and put the rest into TSLA. Another free car, just dont crash it for 2 years.

 

[Electroman]

No Tesla site is currently NEVI compliant

Maybe I missed it if it was explained earlier, but what does it take for a charger to be NEVI compliant?

 

[Nocturnal]

It depends on if Tesla applies for it, and any states pick them to operate sites. But given the NEVI formula program funding requirements, I wouldn't expect Tesla to apply for them. A standard V3 site configuration doesn't have enough power to meet the requirements, not to mention needing to have a display/credit card reader on site and a 24x7 call center to take payment over the phone. (Each state is likely to have different requirements and application processes, which makes it a pain. And some states could decide to do it all on their own and not hire out site construction/maintenance/operation to anyone.)

Pay by phone call? Do they also require the ability to fax in your payment and wait 6-8 weeks for delivery of your electricity?

 

[wipster]

<snip>
That little Walter isaacson clip is great. Let the market compete and sort it out. If I owned a car company (I guess I sort of do with my TSLA…), I’m not sure anything close to a work from home policy would be something I’d even think about experimenting with…

The jobs in a car company that can't be done from home are on the assembly lines. But... with Optimus coming, there could be quite a few of those jobs that may be eliminated.

Things that make you go hmmm...

 

[MP3Mike]

Maybe I missed it if it was explained earlier, but what does it take for a charger to be NEVI compliant?

The main requirement is that it be capable of supplying 150kW to every stall with a CCS connectors at the same time. Supercharger V2 is only capable of ~72kW, most V3s can only do ~90kW.

Other potential requirements are having a onsite display and credit card reader and a 24x7 call center to be able to take payments and start a charge over the phone. (Those requirements are from the Oregon plan document.)

 

[betstarship]

What’s at stake in the freight rail labor fight

A strike was likely averted — but it would have been an economic disaster.

www.vox.com

Could this affect Tesla? Looks like a deal needs to be made or the issue squashed by Friday

 

[Tommy O]

The jobs in a car company that can't be done from home is on the assembly lines. But... with Optimus coming, there could be quite a few of those jobs that may be eliminated.

Things that make you go hmmm...

Partially agree, mostly disagree. Will DM you.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The main requirement is that it be capable of supplying 150kW to every stall with a CCS connectors at the same time. Supercharger V2 is only capable of ~72kW, most V3s can only do ~90kW.

Other potential requirements are having a onsite display and credit card reader and a 24x7 call center to be able to take payments and start a charge over the phone. (Those requirements are from the Oregon plan document.)

Well, that’s really strange. Those are requirements for a failed system. The requirements SHOULD read:

No display necessary (eliminates faded/failed displays as as a failure mode).
No credit card reader required (eliminates skimming scams).

 

[The Accountant]

$1.5B tax credits in 2023 from Giga Nevada alone?
Bradford Ferguson provides a nice concise recording (on Twitter Spaces) on Tesla's HUGE $1.5B upside in 2023.
Without Tesla needing to change anything, Bradford believes that Tesla will get $1.5B tax credits for the Battery production at Giga Nevada as the Panasonic agreement requires all tax credits be given to Tesla.

See his audio here:
edit: Audio starts at 0:15 timestamp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570206597422653440

 

[WattsHappening]

Gotta think longer term! but….Yes!
Once we get over the 50 day by a few percentage points it will cross, signaling many good things for the company, spuring investors to buy more.
View attachment 852515

What I see looking at this chart is 'buy when the 50 DMA turns positive and sell when it turns negative.'

It can't really be that simple though, right?

 

[lafrisbee]

*

Voices in your head can be in any language of your choice.

My first Queen (remember ant here) was a linguist (I know since ants mainly communicate through smell, which means you have to create the language in a physical form...lying is almost impossible) . Some of it rubbed off on me.

"Language" is severely restricted and directive. After all languages are created by humans. But even in the "any language of your choice" reply, I would be limited to languages I UNDERSTAND.
I like the language of smells. They are concrete.

Sidebar. I have a theory/musing. Humans have a hierarchy of how strong a memory is and it is associated with how truthful and physical something is. "Hear" me out. Sight and hearing are conveyances of energy. Energy is transitory at best. Touch is physical but vague/inaccurate. BUT taste and smell are physical. Both are done on an in depth level and involve capturing/owning and processing a physical entity.
Additional sidebar: since smelling something means it is actually physically in your nose. Well I used to love asking my Anatomy/Physiology students if they ever smelled a friend's farts.... the "AHA" moment!

 

[WattsHappening]

With 69.2 going out to 100K users, do we think this unlocks additional FSD deferred revenue for Q3? Or will Zach remain conservative and not release this quarter?

If so, how much? Will it be material to results? Paging @The Accountant.

 

[insaneoctane]

As an owner of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, with FSD (but at less than half the current all-in cost thanks to buying EAP initially and then FSD upgrade on the cheap a few years ago), I worry that if my car gets wrecked or otherwise totalled, the insurance wouldn't come close to covering the cost of replacing the vehicle (since even if I got full value of a 2018 RWD Model 3 LR, that's nowhere near what the nearest equivalent of a AWD LR Model 3 is now, not to mention FSD). I'd hate to have to sell my TSLA to afford a new Tesla. That's of course ignoring that I might be waiting 3-6 months for the vehicle to be replaced on top of everything. The car a financial stretch at the time, and at the current pricing I couldn't afford it without selling TSLA.

As both a Tesla owner and a TSLA investor, I am hoping the day that pricing returns to "normal" levels and supply meets demand happens sooner than later. And I wouldn't mind if Elon gave up this $15k FSD nonsense, or at least let me buy a hypothetical level 4/5 EAP package for highway usage at a reasonable price, at least (I personally have no use for self driving on city streets beyond it being a cool tech gimmick) - the only reason I bought the FSD upgrade was in hopes of some day having no-nag highway autosteer.

Our similarities are astounding. I also have a 2018 TM3 LR with FSD (which I primarily bought in hopes of a no-nag AP someday). I also consider daily the gap between any insurance settlement and what my TM3 LR is worth to me!

The issue is with the "prop-rated" current value of my vehicle. Although I have 75K miles, I've meticulously maintained both the interior and exterior of this car. It looks brand new inside and out...so much so that it's easily worth 80%+ of the cost of a new one...but the insurance company wouldn't agree with me. Why are we so far away? FSD is worthless to resale? High mileage on EVs is under appreciated?

 

[SarahsDad]

Maybe I missed it if it was explained earlier, but what does it take for a charger to be NEVI compliant?

At least for NC these are the requirements - looks like Tesla would qualify if they wanted to.

NCDOT: National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Program

Information and details about efforts from the N.C. Department of Transportation regarding the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Program.

www.ncdot.gov