Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

I am not an expert but it seems that the wait time for a car can be modeled using Queueing Theory. In my workplace we model the wait time for an expensive medical procedure using this methodology. When a resource (the factory or the medical equipment) is fully or nearly fully utilized, small changes in new demand (new patients or car orders) will dramatically increase wait times. There is a distribution of the rate of new arrivals (patient demand or new car orders). This distribution of demand will not allow you to utilize 100% of your capacity at all times without significant increase in wait times. Tesla of course could just make extra cars for export but a hospital cannot always find new patients during times that demand is slightly less than maximum. An increase in capacity to make cars will have an exponential impact on reducing wait times with constant demand. Bottom line is that Tesla’s significantly increased capacity should have non-linear impact on wait times with a constant demand distribution.

Sort of . . .

Tesla's algo is not a straight queue. It's more of a "priority queue", if you are talking in strict data structures. That means there are a lot of things that can cause one's position in the queue to change (geography being the biggest - but in the past it has even included things like "current Tesla car ownership").

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Was a bug on my ticker and was stuck at .96%, my bad!

I sometimes get a similar bug…..which then leads to excitement or disappointment when it finally updates correctly

 

[SmokyPeat]

Let's see the bizarro version of yesterday's trading between 3:00-4:00!

 

[betstarship]

I'm vacationing right now in Hawaii - its awesome to see how many electric vehicles are here. Also, its concerning the experience people are getting in non-Teslas as their first experience with electric vehicles.

I think, market strategy-wise and much like the open sourcing of patents and making Tesla super/wall-charger network available to all EVs, there is going to be a real need to improve the safety and ride-ability of these non-Tesla vehicles (maybe thats Dojo and neural nets as a service?) to make people not on this EV train to stfu and get on the train. Also, its going to be REALLY interesting just how much the rest of the auto manufacturers rely on Tesla's tech going forward. Will they just be highly profitable design/brand houses?

 

[betstarship]

Lastly, just heard and saw a little of the Jay Leno interview - gotta have more people realizing what Musk and team are doing for people and get out of his way.

 

[ZsoZso]

Imagine, that TSLA suddenly gets a cat eyebrow raise rally in the last half an hour...

Spoiler

Now, wake up and smell the coffee...

Welcome back to reality!

 

[ZeApelido]

Could this hint at HW4.0 being ready? (allowing excess HW3.0 to be used for installs).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572970174629691395

EDIT: Yes I understand Joe already had the camera upgrade, but Elon didn't know that, and so he was intimating something about a sudden increase in hardware supply coming.

 

[mongo]

Could this hint at HW4.0 being ready? (allowing excess HW3.0 to be used for installs).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572970174629691395

Joe already had the cam upgrade, he Tweeted that Tesla Service found that he has a flaky B pillar camera.

 

[thx1139]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

 

[traxila]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

I vote recall with conviction. You know those algos...

 

[woodisgood]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

Honestly just an ugly day for renewables/solar/EV. Maybe simple sector rotation, maybe the idea that higher interest rates and/or coming recession will slow green adoption.

 

[Mengy]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

My local Burger King ran out of Impossible sandwiches, and I think that's why TSLA is underperforming it's beta today.

 

[bkp_duke]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

Most EV makers are down as much, or more. I would say it's "segment" wide, not unique to TSLA.

For some reason, NIO was an exception.

 

[Dutchie]

Even a respected news organization as the BBC goes in the FUD train. What is this about letter to notify that affected owners as from November 5? By that time this whole thing is already taken care of.

Tesla ordered to recall more than a million US cars https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62996103

 

[Ogre]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

Ogre needed a little more TSLA.

I shook out a few more AAPL shares in favor of some December TSLA Calls

You could say I'm winding up the TSLA Coil a bit more. Hopefully the results will be shocking.

 

[MP3Mike]

Even a respected news organization as the BBC goes in the FUD train. What is this about letter to notify that affected owners as from November 5? By that time this whole thing is already taken care of.

Tesla ordered to recall more than a million US cars https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62996103

The title is just plain false. Tesla wasn't ordered to do a recall. They found the issue with their own testing, resolved it in current production on 9/13, and voluntarily issued a recall.

But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of your click bait reporting...

 

[wipster]

I sometimes get a similar bug…..which then leads to excitement or disappointment when it finally updates correctly

That's what happened to me earlier... clicked on eTrade and it showed a straight up shot to 308.23, checked on two windows and graphs and they all showed it. Logged off and logged back in and it was gone. Should have taken a screenshot as it did seem quite unusual, too bad it wasn't real.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

When there's no real volume, TSLA snaps to max pain because it's options market is so huge. Max pain was $301.67 this morning and now the SP is setup nicely to coast into that while MM's get the side benefit of unwinding any shorting. Likely at a profit.

I don't think a single soul was terribly interested in buying or selling TSLA today. And I take that as a good sign. Relatively speaking of course.

I thought we'd snap back to $299 by the close, but I guess not.

 

[mickificki]

So do we have theory about the huge underperformance today?

The non-recall recall?
Troy tweets about China deliveries?
The weather is chilly in Chicago?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572971423286628354

 

[Electroman]

Even a respected news organization as the BBC

I lost you at the first few words there. "respected news organization as the BBC".