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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It's a fun read but also a revealing one.
It speaks volume about the kind of brief but interested interactions Elon has all the time with his circle.
Calacanis and Lonsdale don't come out good IMHO.
Here is the full court doc...all 151 pages. Who will be the first to read it all? Not me, in case anyone is wondering...
 
Tesla will start giving employees cash grants as their default incentive to stick with the company, rather than equity, though employees will still be able to receive stock awards instead of cash grants if they prefer

 
Tesla will start giving employees cash grants as their default incentive to stick with the company, rather than equity, though employees will still be able to receive stock awards instead of cash grants if they prefer

That’s what happen when your CEO torpedoes the stock constantly and employees get impatient/annoyed because of it 🥴

(I eagerly await all the disagrees 😂. Yes the overall market is down and Yes Elon did plenty of damage on his own)
 
That’s what happen when your CEO torpedoes the stock constantly and employees get impatient/annoyed because of it 🥴

(I eagerly await all the disagrees 😂. Yes the overall market is down and Yes Elon did plenty of damage on his own)
It's because Tesla has more cash than it knows what to do with - and it is being inflated away at high single digit speed. Much better option than diluting the stock.
 
It's because Tesla has more cash than it knows what to do with - and it is being inflated away at high single digit speed. Much better option than diluting the stock.
Paying employees with cash bonus will be a direct hit to operating costs when it comes to earnings. It doesn’t matter how much cash or fcf Tesla has. That doesn’t factor into this at all.

All this does is move some of the earnings hit from Non GAAP to GAAP earnings. And in a lot of ways, it’s worse. If a company’s stock continues moving higher, then they can get away with offering less stock for each $ of value.

For example:

Tesla employees get a 20k bonus every year. At todays current share price, that would be 73 shares.

Next year if the stock is at say 400 share price, for Tesla to give that same 20k bonus, it only costs them 50 shares.

Now that it’s cash bonus, 20k is 20k…..it doesn’t change.
 
Paying employees with cash bonus will be a direct hit to operating costs when it comes to earnings. It doesn’t matter how much cash or fcf Tesla has. That doesn’t factor into this at all

Its actually pretty common (happened to me and others working at good co's back in the 2007-2010 year recession range) and a good way to retain great employees in bad markets at big co's.

There's a cost-benefit analysis most engineers make as to whether to work at high-flying startups looking to poach big co engineers (who get an onslaught of requests from startup recruiters...). On the one side of the grass, bad market and cash equals more money. Than stock with lower multiples. On the other side of the grass, riskier to take on tons of stock and lower salary.
 
Paying employees with cash bonus will be a direct hit to operating costs when it comes to earnings. It doesn’t matter how much cash or fcf Tesla has. That doesn’t factor into this at all
SG&A and R&D already have stock based compensation (SBC) as an expense. This will impact EBITDA though as SBC was backed out of that number.
 
Bear with me here, but I'm starting to think that the entire stock market is based on nothing but feelings and hopes vs being based on things like earnings. Stay tuned for my next talk, "Water, it makes things wet."
The stock market used to be about feelings, then everyone got the internet on their phones and figured out that hedge funds don't really know anything.

Now the stock market is about manufacturing volatility to screw over retail investors wherever possible.

TMC has now taught the world that HODLing defeats that. Not sure what's next, we're likely already seeing it with MM's shaving risk-free billions of the top.
 
It is blowing my mind that TSLA has followed the NASDAQ this week (with it's Beta, or worse), as if there is nothing significant happening this weekend (P&D). It's as though the market doesn't care that TSLA is about to blow the previous record out of the water. 👀

Edit: It should be up 5-10X
Kind of shows you who's in charge, doesn't it?
 
SG&A and R&D already have stock based compensation (SBC) as an expense. This will impact EBITDA though as SBC was backed out of that number.
It’s moving costs from non GAAP to GAAP when it comes to earnings. The downside is what I mentioned in the post above about how a higher share price means less of a hit to earnings verses paying out cash
 
It is blowing my mind that TSLA has followed the NASDAQ this week (with it's Beta, or worse), as if there is nothing significant happening this weekend (P&D). It's as though the market doesn't care that TSLA is about to blow the previous record out of the water. 👀

Edit: It should be up 5-10X
No one here should be surprised by this weeks action. It’s been the playbook for years on the week before P/D numbers. Add in the demand narrative that a supposed Tesla Twitter bull themselves started and here’s what ya get.
 
In that case they should do a stock buy-back.
If Tesla posts the kind of earnings that Economist/Matt are projecting (over $1.50 in GAAP EPS), Tesla absolutely should announce the buy back. If they can do h the at level of earnings off of just a 50k delivery improvement from Q1, then they’re going to be by far flush in cash that they won’t need
 
Paying employees with cash bonus will be a direct hit to operating costs when it comes to earnings. It doesn’t matter how much cash or fcf Tesla has. That doesn’t factor into this at all.

All this does is move some of the earnings hit from Non GAAP to GAAP earnings. And in a lot of ways, it’s worse. If a company’s stock continues moving higher, then they can get away with offering less stock for each $ of value.

For example:

Tesla employees get a 20k bonus every year. At todays current share price, that would be 73 shares.

Next year if the stock is at say 400 share price, for Tesla to give that same 20k bonus, it only costs them 50 shares.

Now that it’s cash bonus, 20k is 20k…..it doesn’t change.
It stops dilution. as you say 20k is 20k and not 73 shares @1.5k in a few year = 110k. all that difference accrues to us lucky shareholders. At the same time today's 20k will be reduced in value by inflation if left on the balance sheet.

The more the stock is expected to go up the better it is for existing shareholders that bonuses are paid in cash rather than shares.
 
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It also shows that we never know the whole story. This should be a reminder to those who like to have an authoritative opinion about that which they have limited knowledge that they should actually be quiet and wait patiently like the rest of us for all facts to be revealed.

Elon was going to lose the Vernon Unsworth lawsuit - he didn't
Elon was going to lose the Solar City lawsuit - he didn't
Each time I was sure he was going to lose because I was reading biased reporting on the cases.
So this time with the Twitter case, I don't believe much that is reported . . .most of it comes with a bias.
I have no expectations on whether Elon wins or loses . . .and I really don't care . . . imo, it won't impact the company or the stock long term.
 
FYI from Reuters. Side note, is there value to posting things that might also be on Twitter? I figure not everyone has the time or interest to be there, but I also try to only share the most relevant things across platforms as many use both.

 
FYI from Reuters. Side note, is there value to posting things that might also be on Twitter? I figure not everyone has the time or interest to be there, but I also try to only share the most relevant things across platforms as many use both.

Here's the link to Reuters:


The ambitious goal came despite lingering supply chain risks, a slowing economy and rising competition and falling Tesla order backlogs. But its forecast, which covers the next four consecutive quarters, sets an ambitious target to produce almost 495,000 Model Y and Model 3s in the fourth quarter of this year. Those two models account for about 95% of Tesla’s output.
 
Tesla will start giving employees cash grants as their default incentive to stick with the company, rather than equity, though employees will still be able to receive stock awards instead of cash grants if they prefer

I really like that is a free choice: the best for the workers.