Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[saniflash]

max pain 275

 

[scaesare]

When corruption is in plain sight, denying it is wilful blindess.

All kinds of conspiracies really happen. Big Oil conspired to hide evidenc of global warming and lie about it. There was a conspiracy to fake up lies to atart the Iraq War. The Big Tobacco conspiracy to addict people with lies and who cares about the cancwr, super well documented.

Obvious conspiracy is obvious

Indeed. Merchants of Doubt is a great watch in this regard....

 

[Fred42]

Treated like a Dignitary? They offered him Chinese Citzenship!

But in all seriousness, I think you may be onto something. China would be a much better patron than the Saudis ever could be. And I think they have a stock exchange too...

Anybody know if China allows short selling?
!*asking for a friend*!

Cheers!

China is not a democracy. Tesla is now in good standing but that could change due to a change in leadership or priorities. China's leaders can do what they want with no recourse. I'm happy about GF3, but Tesla should be careful about unnecessary exposure.

OT, but, Century of the Self is an outstanding documentary by the BBC precisely on this phenomena and its origins through the work of Freud's nephew Edward Bernays who pretty much pioneered public relations field. Covers events from early 20th Century to early 21st. Whole documentary is up on YouTube.

As pertains to Tesla, several example of events that make it abundantly clear that there have been historic examples of people/organizations in positions of tremendous influence using massive misinformation campaigns to attempt to steer mass public perception counter to actual reality. 'Conspiracy theory' seems quite a misnomer for practices that people/organizations are susceptible to deploying while having access to immense concentrated mass media influence.

Amazon has this only from someone who recorded it off the air. Too bad, I'd like to see it.

A tiny bit of local Zeebrugge news: Tesla voert leveringen op in Zeebrugge

Apparently Elon decided to skip charging, cleaning and installing accessories in Zeebrugge in order to get the cars delivered in Q1.
Which explains why my car was fairly dirty and only half charged on delivery.
Going forward, these tasks will be performed in Zeebrugge, as the operations revert to a normal steady state.
The article also mentions that the Germans should become nervous, as the market share of Model 3 in Q1 in the midsize premium sedan was 31% versus 29% for Mercedes C class, 14% for Audi A4 and 13% for BMW 3- class.

How does it make sense to clean them at Zeebrugge before trucking them to the delivery location, usually in another nation?

 

[scaesare]

Actually, as it turns out AI has all the biases of the people who train it. Its a big topic in AI.

Google’s AI chief says forget Elon Musk’s killer robots, and worry about bias in AI systems instead

As Tay can confirm

 

[ggr]

Unless I'm mistaken, the wash sale rule applies. If you buy back the same securities within 30 days, the proceeds from a sale (or the losses from a sale) are not claimable. But I am an engineer, not an accountant.

Of course you misunderestimate the IRS. Proceeds (positive) are taxable. Losses (negative) are not claimable.

 

[Krugerrand]

As a bull, the current setup is good. I don't have to look over my shoulder wondering if anoyher pedo or 420 tweet is coming.

Basically, anything that stops a tweet from moving the stock price by 5% or more. What the SEC did is counter to the intents of the settoement. What was supposed to be ebforcement that calms became enforcements that ended up causing the same thing. Someone at sec got scorned and is out for revenge. And is on a powertrip that think they can do no wrong because "mah government". Funded by tax payers who are tesla stock holders. Of which, I am one, even though I am not american. I still pay all the sec fees and 25% witholding taxes.

That tweet did NOT in fact move the SP 5%. The big SP move that day happened because of the media’s reporting of the Saudi stake.

Even the supposed longs have fallen for FUD now.

 

[S3XY]

Help.... My computer screen seems to have flipped upside down... The MMD is going the wrong direction?

Just wait a few minutes. It's self healing.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

other automakers : there seems to be a lot of demand for EVs. Let's build one. How hard can it be?

204 miles with a 95Kwh battery? damn

 

[WarpedOne]

Even the supposed longs have fallen for FUD now.

The FUD works.
Idiocracy is not a conspiracy, it is the strongest attractor.

 

[printf42]

Did I see it wrong?

Was there really 2.48m shares traded in one min at 10:40am?

What the F is that?

 

[EVNow]

Next thing I noticed was that it appears to be more sensitive to poor weather. It went from Nav on Autopilot to regular Autopilot three times during my trip for this reason. Each time it would re-engage when the rain let up ...

So, we can use it 3 months of the year !

 

[jhm]

I don't think it's quite like that. The SEC is not saying all tweets. But the problem is it's very hard to define exactly what tweets should be scanned. This was revealed when the judge repeatedly pressed the SEC on their "clear and unambiguous" claim. Judge was like if it's so clear, then tell me what it means, and the SEC really couldn't (see my joke in an earlier post). The use of the additional phrase "that could reasonably be considered to be material" in addition to simply "material" was the problem, and the judge zeroed in on that.

It's going to be very interesting to see what new agreement they craft.

I thought it was strange that the SEC asserted that Musk's tweet was "material" under any standard the court might recognize. And yet the SEC refuses to "pick one" and demonstrate that it material under that selected standard. Getting tangled up on "reasonably could contain" is beside the point because the SEC is asserting that is material under any reasonable standard. So it is not their burden to show that it "reasonably could contain," but rather that is in fact does contain material information. But what the SEC seems to be trying to do is set up the Musk case as a very special situation where the SEC is able to arbitrate what is and is not material on the basis of no recognizable standard for which evidence would be required. I think this is why the Judge asked under what authority would they sanction Musk. They are implying that they should have the authority to simply look at a Tweet and hold that it is material without any further consideration of evidence. No judge should grant them such arbitrary authority.

So the judge sends the SEC back to determine what standard of materiality it will abide by. I think Musk and Tesla should press for a standard that is already established policy with the SEC and that applies broadly to all whom the SEC would regulate. This would force to SEC to either accept it or argue why in this one case alone a substantially different definition of materiality should be improvised. If the SEC goes there, it should send a chilling message to all of corporate America. If the SEC can carve out a special standard of materiality that applies to Musk, they can do the same to any executive, director or significant investor. So in a broader sense, the standard that applies to Musk may well come to apply to all.

 

[Antares Nebula]

TSLA getting the Judge Nathan boost today. A close above 275 would be good to end the week - 200 weekly moving average, a somewhat significant level.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

While scanning the news feeds, it's apparent that releasing the Q1 P&D report on the evening before Elon's court appearance resulted in the P&D report getting upstaged by Elon showing up at the courtroom in person to battle the SEC and fans calling "We love you, Elon." Overall, the optics of today's Tesla news was radically improved by this timing.

I love optics as much as the next modern media observer but the reality is S/X sales have dramatically collapsed in the wake of the 3 and they needed to refresh those models yesterday and short term stock price movements don't change this reality.

I'm still following my plan, I want to divest a large portion of my stake at the earliest feasible opportunity.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So, we can use it 3 months of the year !

Patience my friend. It will only get better.

Dan

 

[EVNow]

OT :

Finally, if you don't believe me you should watch the video of Andrej Karpathy. I was struck by his point about too much data (and it resonates as I'll note below) so I repeated it here. He didn't go into all of this detail in that video, but the information is available. Feel free to disagree, but you should be aware that you are disagreeing with Andrej Karpathy as well.

(Note: this "too much data" is a problem for anyone who over collects. In my field you get places that practice excessive logging. Which doesn't help find problems and increases legal risk. There are companies whose business is to try and automatically classify (label) data and facilitate searching -- and they work to a point. But data collection and exploitation is as much art as anything and it doesn't help to have too much data. If you don't have a plan for how to exploit it then it is just costing you.)

I did watch the excellent talk by Andrej. I should note that in my day job I've been dealing with data (and only data !) for the last 2+ decades. Infact I found it funny when he said in software 2.0 you start dealing with data instead of algos !

Yes, one of the first questions I had was - how are they collecting edge cases. Are those disengagements or some other feedback from the cars ?

When I say larger data sets help - I'm talking about 1M vs 10M. In both cases you have to figure out how to identify edge cases in an automated way, anyway.

ps : For eg., if they know there is an edge case in a particular location - there is better chance of having more samples of that location in a larger data set than in a smaller one.

 

[EVNow]

Patience my friend. It will only get better.

I think this year will help - San Francisco had more rainy days than Seattle

 

[SW2Fiddler]

This is normal. Most upper management only hears what they want to hear because subordinates do not want to lose their jobs by telling the boss he's full of it, or that something could possibly go wrong with their plans. Only the bottom two layers have the real information and they are never ever listened to. Then there are all the internal politics that favour the status quo.

...It’s what I call the “snafu principle.” Communication only occurs between equals...

 

[elasalle]

.

TSLA getting the Judge Nathan boost today. A close above 275 would be good to end the week - 200 weekly moving average, a somewhat significant level.

SP on Feb 19th (day of EM's SEC #2 tweet ) was 305.xx at close ... how long before we get back there ...

+ Q2 starts with a 10K cushion of inventory for deliveries.

 

[Zero CO2]

Tesla Got an Early Lead, but Luxury Electric Rivals Are Racing to Catch Up

Here we have the latest anti Tesla FUD from the yellow rag known as the NYT.

Best part is that not only is Tesla DOOMED by all the legacy car manufacturers that are going after Tesla’s market share with the introduction of multiple BEVs (with no mention of what all these new BEVs might do to their ICE business overall) but the NYT hurries to take a swipe at BEVs in general, bringing up this exotic thing called a ‘Level 2 charger’ which costs ‘thousands of dollars’ and how necessary it is to achieve a 20mph charging rate, which is still not enough!

I read this rag to keep the enemy close, but It is a chore I must admit.

This talk of the competition from legacy ICE manufacturers is tiresome... they are all stuck with the "Innovators Dilemma" ... most will be gone in less than 10 years ... some will survive but will be stuck with ICE baggage for years to come... i would like to see a real Tesla competitor emerge but i doubt it will be a legacy automaker.