Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

Even the r/Tesla is a mess of Tesla loathing. The Tesla owners there seem to hate themselves for buying their cars. Not sure what it is about that site.

I don’t think there is any value in trying to read consumer sentiment from Reddit.

r/Tesla is about Nikola Tesla you know the dead scientist from prior centuries. Anyone loathing Tesla the company in that subreddit isn't an owner of Tesla or TSLA.

r/teslamotors is where Telsa owners talk

r/teslainvestorsclub is where TSLA owners talk

If you can't find your way to the right subreddit I'm not sure why you expect people to take your comment seriously.

 

[insaneoctane]

What better example is there that the game is rigged than WS getting this buying opportunity after being so very very wrong...

 

[Gigapress]

Just my opinion but if we drop below 200 tomorrow we are headed for 155 and will probably hang out there for awhile. This Twitter thing will keep everyone guessing for at least another month.

45x TTM GAAP P/E ratio after next week's earnings? 30x forward GAAP P/E for 2023 based on Wall Street's ridiculously low projections?

If that happens I'm selling all remaining shares for Jun '24 and Jan '25 LEAPs around $300 strike and submitting job applications to earn income to buy more.

 

[mongo]

That's a great point. I didn't think of that. I have been thinking that Tesla will keep their own Megapacks for developing their electric utility business, but maybe they won't do that in the US since the IRA gives such a strong cost advantage to selling them to somebody else.

So spin off Tesla Energy ( roof, grid ) ? TSLA can sell to NOT A TESLA (NTSA) ...
Govt is referee, TSLA just plays the game, per their rules

Ack, just reread, the Treasury Secretary will (may?) allow sales to related parties to be treated as unrelated (as long as you don't try gaming the system).

(3) UNRELATED PERSON.— ‘‘
(A) IN GENERAL.—For purposes of this subsection, a taxpayer shall be treated as selling components to an unrelated person if such component is sold to such person by a person related to the taxpayer. ‘‘
(B) ELECTION.— ‘‘
(i) IN GENERAL.—At the election of the taxpayer (in such form and manner as the Secretary may prescribe), a sale of components by such taxpayer to a related person shall be deemed to have been made to an unrelated person. ‘‘
(ii) REQUIREMENT.—As a condition of, and prior to, any election described in clause (i), the Secretary may require such information or registration as the Secretary deems necessary for purposes of preventing duplication, fraud, or any improper or excessive amount determined under paragraph (1).

 

[Unpilot]

as long as you don't try gaming the system

 

[Unpilot]

So it seems we are not where the MM want us to be.

 

[Mengy]

45x TTM GAAP P/E ratio after next week's earnings? 30x forward GAAP P/E for 2023 based on Wall Street's ridiculously low projections?

If that happens I'm selling all remaining shares for LEAPs and submitting job applications to earn income to buy more.

The PE is about to get ridiculously low for TSLA after next week, and especially after Q4 earnings if the stock stays low.

I know I've been predicting we wouldn't hit a new ATH until sometime in 2024 and that we'd get some serious PE compression until then, but these current lows are TOO low to sustain over the next year if Tesla continues to grow revenues at its current rate. Something will probably have to give toward the upside for TSLA even if the macros stay low and we enter a recession.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This 215 range is annoying me. It’s my nickname given earlier in life - 228 was my cat. (Spells cat on the phone, and is evidence we CAN be both cat and dog lovers and all get along, just maybe not at the same time in life.)

As if a reminder, I see this mile marker in my garage everyday. (Had it since the 80s, ADOT didn’t want it back. Deer Valley I17 exit became a freeway stack.)

Question is… what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing but another mile marker on our way to sustainability. Carry on.

Spoiler: Not Numerology

And you thought Elon had the market cornered on strange names with numbers? I didn't do it legally, but this was considered many times, but then Intel/AMD battled for the rights to the 586 chip and hence made it so you could not trademark a number. This is why Intel went from the 486 to the Pentium® Processor. I think we all have a little crazy in us, and I have a unique connection with Elon's family in this crazy way.

I can be addressed as 21 or 2, I respond to both. Like a first/middle/last name thing. Mr. 5, not good. Pronounced Two-One. The closest people to me, I'm simply 2. How this came to be is for another day - it involves Trade School style education when in Canada.

 

[willow_hiller]

r/Tesla is about Nikola Tesla you know the dead scientist from prior centuries. Anyone loathing Tesla the company in that subreddit isn't an owner of Tesla or TSLA.

r/teslamotors is where Telsa owners talk

r/teslainvestorsclub is where TSLA owners talk

If you can't find your way to the right subreddit I'm not sure why you expect people to take your comment seriously.

I've actually got some sentiment-data collecting apparatus, if this helps calm some nerves around here. The conclusion up-front is that social media sentiment is fickle, and not as overwhelmingly positive or negative as you might think. It changes wildly day to day, and while it can have short-term trends, they rarely last long as people move onto the next thing quickly. Here's the last month worth of sentiment data around Elon on 3 example subreddits:

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

WTF we're up .037%. I thought I was going to have a great buying opportunity this morning after reading all of the gloom and doom and whining. One question I have is, has @Webeevdrivers always been such a Debby Downer, or is this a new thing?

 

[WattsHappening]

It had been a while (deer in headlights), so I shook the couch cushions again this morning and was able to fund 10 shares at $213 this morning.

Lemons, lemonade.

 

[Gigapress]

Munro & Associates published fresh analysis on the ultrasonic sensor system removal.

Their calculation of the estimated direct hardware cost was $114, making @mongo 's guess last week the closest. This was not including other costs though, including installation labor, supply chain management, inventory, floor space, poor quality, etc. I changed my model from the $500 previous estimate last week to $200. This $300 per car difference makes a $0.20 earnings per share difference for my 2023 estimates.

 

[NicoV]

Since this smells so much like the 2019 doldrums , I couldn’t resist buying some YOLO calls: december 270 calls for $6.3. I find it unlikely that this nonsense will continue post Q3 earnings AND post-twitter-takeover. And if they expire worthless, I’ll probably buy some ITM leaps, that worked well in 2019.

 

[Knightshade]

The PE is about to get ridiculously low for TSLA after next week, and especially after Q4 earnings if the stock stays low.

There seems some disagreement on what is "ridiculously low" for PE for TSLA between certain folks in this thread and the market in general

 

[OrthoSurg]

I think we are in over FUD mode, so seems Shorties trying their best .... and that is a good thing.
If CPI is good tomorrow morning, big macro moves, else we might still see a small relief rally esp. with unwinding of VIX( +34 right now)/insurance.

From tomorrow morning, every move/bet will only be based on upcoming earnings report ... and that should be a good thing.
So I think SP move up starts tomorrow ....

We should publish an absolute bottom price where everyone is secure to buy all out as soon as the stock price hit that target. This way nobody gets margin called, nobody gets stressed and everybody enjoys the stock market.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Since this smells so much like the 2019 doldrums , I couldn’t resist buying some YOLO calls: december 270 calls for $6.3. I find it unlikely that this nonsense will continue post Q3 earnings AND post-twitter-takeover. And if they expire worthless, I’ll probably buy some ITM leaps, that worked well in 2019.

TSLA can’t even get out of the red on macro up days……we still have 5 more trading days where the stock will be pummeled and targeted.

And that’s not even factoring the what if on the macro level if the CPI print comes in hot.

Yes Q3 earnings like will be the turnaround for the stock, but it’s probably come from a sub $200 stock price.

 

[GOVA]

Since this smells so much like the 2019 doldrums , I couldn’t resist buying some YOLO calls: december 270 calls for $6.3. I find it unlikely that this nonsense will continue post Q3 earnings AND post-twitter-takeover. And if they expire worthless, I’ll probably buy some ITM leaps, that worked well in 2019.

Q3 of this year? Good luck.

 

[capster]

Crack reporting here. Basically "Tesla didn't care to make this until the IRA happened". A bit of FUD about specs, but at least a nod to Elon not begging for incentives.

Tesla Semi Looks Like a Bidenmobile Spurred by the Climate Bill

The truck was on the back burner until the president’s climate bill passed.

www.bloomberg.com

Something, something causality, coincidence.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There seems some disagreement on what is "ridiculously low" for PE for TSLA between certain folks in this thread and the market in general

Is there? I think most of us here can agreed anything below a PE of 100 is ridiculously low for a company with this much growth, promise, and clear durable advantage.

After next Wednesday, 100 PE will be ~$365(+70% from here). In 98 days it'll be ~$450(+110% from here).

At some point macros and maximizing options market profits for MM's must crack. Earnings are what matters most.

 

[generalenthu]

Anyone has a record of what the average price of the shares Tesla sold for $5 Billion post the S&P inclusion?

It was done in the open market, so no news items on first look

Edit: Was looking at the 8K and remembered they sold it all on one obviously super volatile day and called it done. Quite unhelpfully, they don't mention the price at which they have done this in this 8K. tsla-8k_20201209.htm