Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

Whoa if this is true does it mean that all the other ones who cheated, like VW, will have to do the same?

God let it be true. This would be incredible.

 

[Causalien]

God let it be true. This would be incredible.

Justice? It's been so long, I've forgotten what it is.

 

[Steve m]

Ummm, this confuses me a little. How can Teslas be part of FCA's "fleet"?

The story states that EU rules allow the pooling of fleets from different companies.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The story states that EU rules allow the pooling of fleets from different companies.

So can Tesla parcel out its cars to multiple violators and rack up serious cash? That could be impressive previously unrealized value. We may have trouble getting new Teslas in the US.

If true, Tesla ought to soak those guys for every penny they can.

 

[ZsoZso]

"Full Self Driving" is just a product name like "Super Cruise" or "Ludicrous Mode" are product names. It does seem a bit misleading but there are lots of product names in the marketplace that suggest the product is more than it really is.

Indeed, Elon mentioned several times that even after they release FSD, it will require significant time (probably years) before regulators approve the car to drive itself without a responsible driver. This pretty much means, FSD = level 3 autonomy, not even level 4. Because the driver is still responsible at level 3, i.e. has to pay attention and take over if necessary. While level 4 does not require a driver to pay attention, the car can drive within its limitations (stay within geofence, pull over and stop in severe weather conditions it can't handle etc.)

 

[oneday]

Tesla formed the pool on Feb. 25. Looks like there could be some Q1 revenue recognition.

 

[ggr]

Here’s a link bypassing the FT paywall

Fiat Chrysler pools fleet with Tesla to avoid EU emissions fines - Phoneweek

Ummm... wow? I can't decide whether I like this or not.

 

[Singer3000]

Might as well say that any product has limited growth potential to some certain percentage of world population. Of course that's a meaningless metric until the potential market is actually saturated.

There’s a dangerous tendency on this forum for any questioning of demand to be treated as a thought crime. We know that Tesla are targeting steady state production of 10k a week. And we know there’s a long standing internal assumption that steady state ASP will be $42k. Which means there’s some steady state cap on demand for premium models that is well below 10k per week.

Q4 had an artificially elevated demand curve in North America due to tax credit pull forward, Q1 the opposite effect. European demand for premium models in Q1 (and possible Q2 also) had a pent-up demand effect that that will fade over the coming months. This can be mitigated somewhat by opening up to untapped markets but there will also be a pent up demand effect in those markets too that will fade in time.

It’s perfectly reasonable to speculate that 5k-ish per week is as much demand for LR Model 3s as we’re likely to see.

 

[pz1975]

Ummm... wow? I can't decide whether I like this or not.

I agree. I feel like it is helping them cheat since Tesla is going to sell its cars anyways. Why should they still be allowed to get away with polluting? But on the other hand I’d rather the money go to Tesla’s bottom line than whatever entity would be collecting the EU fines.

 

[Causalien]

I agree. I feel like it is helping them cheat since Tesla is going to sell its cars anyways. Why should they still be allowed to get away with polluting? But on the other hand I’d rather the money go to Tesla’s bottom line than whatever entity would be collecting the EU fines.

2 bil fine isn't going to dent them. But a couple hundred million now is crucial for TSLA.

 

[ZsoZso]

Ummm... wow? I can't decide whether I like this or not.

Yeah, I can see the bears having a field-day claiming Tesla lives on ZEV-like payment aka subsidies from other car makers.
Lutz and ilk will claim Tesla wouldnt survive without the subsidies paid by main stream manufacturers.

 

[Zaxxon]

I agree. I feel like it is helping them cheat since Tesla is going to sell its cars anyways. Why should they still be allowed to get away with polluting? But on the other hand I’d rather the money go to Tesla’s bottom line than whatever entity would be collecting the EU fines.

Hot take since it's late and I haven't yet had time to fully process this news, but...

We were just discussing alternate cap raise options today. This is... a non-dilutive, non-recourse cap raise.

Sure, I don't like that it somewhat lets Fiat off the hook for failing to develop a lower-emitting fleet, but another way to look at it is that it's forcing Fiat to help fund Tesla's expansion. Seems worthwhile to me.

Mission first.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I agree. I feel like it is helping them cheat since Tesla is going to sell its cars anyways. Why should they still be allowed to get away with polluting? But on the other hand I’d rather the money go to Tesla’s bottom line than whatever entity would be collecting the EU fines.

It SHOULD have incentivized FCA and other to get their own EV act together sooner. I would assume their current strategy would be to replace the allocated Teslas with their own EVs over time and reduce their Tesla payoff while still avoiding EU fines.

 

[Steve m]

Yeah, I can see the bears having a field-day claiming Tesla lives on ZEV-like payment aka subsidies from other car makers.
Lutz and ilk will claim Tesla wouldnt survive without the subsidies paid by main stream manufacturers.

F what the bears have to say if it generates significant 100% margin revenue.

 

[RobStark]

Do Norwegian and Swiss sales count toward this EU cap n trade scheme?

 

[Causalien]

F what the bears have to say if it generates significant 100% margin revenue.

By shuffling paper around...

 

[neroden]

"Full Self Driving" is just a product name like "Super Cruise" or "Ludicrous Mode" are product names. It does seem a bit misleading but there are lots of product names in the marketplace that suggest the product is more than it really is.

Why not go with "Awesome Self Driving", then. That is also an arbitrary product name but doesn't suggest anything specific about being level 5.

 

[Pras]

There’s a dangerous tendency on this forum for any questioning of demand to be treated as a thought crime. We know that Tesla are targeting steady state production of 10k a week. And we know there’s a long standing internal assumption that steady state ASP will be $42k. Which means there’s some steady state cap on demand for premium models that is well below 10k per week.

Q4 had an artificially elevated demand curve in North America due to tax credit pull forward, Q1 the opposite effect. European demand for premium models in Q1 (and possible Q2 also) had a pent-up demand effect that that will fade over the coming months. This can be mitigated somewhat by opening up to untapped markets but there will also be a pent up demand effect in those markets too that will fade in time.

It’s perfectly reasonable to speculate that 5k-ish per week is as much demand for LR Model 3s as we’re likely to see.

I disagree. Demand can be increased by lowering price or improving value....true for any product with high substitutes in market, I.e. mass market cars.

Tesla is just optimizing production capacity to realize savings to offer more lower end variants. So a 3% cost saving and hence price reduction, for example, can increase huge demand.

The true demand peak can’t be known yet as we haven’t seen all the variants rolled out to all the regions. Also by that time you will have Shanghai factory online, which I assume will allow further price reduction kicking in further demand. Too early to say this whole story.

 

[neroden]

OT

Yeah, like, what do you mean my Coke doesn’t have coke in it?

It used to, man... it used to... read the Wiki entry... It still has coca leaf extract.

 

[neroden]

Just curious, but how much money would Tesla need to start offering Model 3 for lease?

I think they'd need to get their production rate up to target first.

The financials are OK right now, but frankly they'll be around breakeven until they get to 10K/week on Model 3 (current plan being 7K at Fremont and 3K at Shanghai). It's at that point that they start being solid enough to take the cash flow hit from leasing in stride.