Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

A couple things:

• The span on the support members to create a large open floor plan requires a large structural member to support that span. Hence the truss style frames
• The span is much larger than it looks due to drone footage and not actually being there in person
• The roof will have to carry some load: solar panels and heavy rain and wind
• The open sections of the truss will be used for infrastructure. Wires, ducting, even possibly equipment

Thanks for your informative reply! In the meantime I did a google search (which I should have started with...), and found this: Space frame - Wikipedia

To quote: "...a space frame or space structure (3D truss) is a rigid, lightweight, truss-like structure constructed from interlocking struts in a geometric pattern. Space frames can be used to span large areas with few interior supports. Like the truss, a space frame is strong because of the inherent rigidity of the triangle; flexing loads (bending moments) are transmitted as tension and compression loads along the length of each strut... With these features, steel space frames can be used to achieve also complex geometries with a structural weight lower than any other solution. The inner highly hyper-static system provides an increased resistance to damages caused by fire, explosions, shocks and earthquakes. Space frames are modular and made of highly industrialized elements designed with a remarkable dimensional accuracy and precise surface finish."

So, lighter, stronger, easier to manufacture roof solution. Cool!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Once again, would you rather they have delivered 63k and made 77k, or delivered 66k and made 90-100k and added a billlion dollars FCF loss?

It's pretty surprising to see how hard it is for people to understand that there is a limited sized market for the LR/AWD/P in each territory. Tesla wasn't shipping the SR models for all of Q1 and they could only get so many euro/china high end models on the boats. So then Tesla's only choices were to keep making the high end models at a 6k/week pace and have a huge inventory or limit production until SR production is ramping.

 

[sparcs]

So you wanted the 80-90k range? You would have preferred half a billion in extra FCF losses?

I said many in this thread probably had those high expectations. I was thinking 70k models for Q1. I didn't post it earlier in Q1 because I self-censored and didn't want to look like I was trolling as if I was being too negative.

 

[EVNow]

I would have guessed at least some incremental production increase in Model 3s for Q1 compared to Q4. I wasn't ever expecting 90k to 100k Model 3s for Q1. Probably many here were expecting in 80k+ territory for Model 3 production in Q1.

Q4 Tesla produced 61k. In Q1 they made 63k. Considering all the changes that happened - changing to China model, Changing to EU model, changing back to NA, changing to making SR+ … why is this surprising ?

 

[KarenRei]

I said many in this thread probably had those high expectations. I was thinking 70k models for Q1. I didn't post it earlier in Q1 because I self-censored and didn't want to look like I was trolling as if I was being too negative.

People who had high production expectations almost always had high delivery expectations to correspond to them. Almost nobody thought it made sense to needlessly create a big gulf between production and deliveries if you can tell you won't be able to deliver everything.

 

[shrspeedblade]

**** them. Tesla would need to build cars for another 4 or 5 years just to offset their waste.

Funny that I never see stuff like this factored in when those comparisons come out comparing the emissions of an already refined gallon of gasoline to the emissions from electricity generated to power an electric car!

Truth be known, with all the incidentals like this linked to oil exploration/extraction/refining/delivery/storage/consumption hindsight will probably show it to compare even less favorably.....

 

[capster]

Of course, I’m hurting every day TSLA is down. I’ve never sold any TSLA since investing 8 years ago, just found myself trapped with call options that are way way down because of the manipulation (and the Q1 miss).

Btw I’m posting Adam Jonas notes as soon as I receive them. I’m doing so because looking at history, generally MS downgrades will impact the stock price. So it gives some people an advance warning and they can trade on it in pre-market.

But if you like, I can stop posting them and you can read about it in the market news, like everyone else.

I apologize for misunderstanding your position and I’ve appended an edit to my original post to reflect this.

I’m not ecstatic about the SP, but am not worried about my long term position.

That said, I personally view the analysts and much of the press as mere mouthpieces rather than as holding any strings themselves as you said. Most of them probably don’t even know whose water they are carrying.

I tend to interpret what they say much differently than is intended.

I’m not interested in the short term action of the stock beyond trying to see past the volatility. TSLA isn’t the only battle and I would know the hearts and minds behind the hands that hold the various cards.

But then, I may think (very/too ) different.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Very good M3 review after 26,000 miles from Andy.
Over 12,000 likes.

 

[Doit]

Reuters: SEC steps on Tesla 'reasonable' to prevent problems: commissioner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. securities watchdog’s request that a federal judge hold Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk in contempt over the billionaire entrepreneur’s use of Twitter was “reasonable,” said a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission official on Monday.

SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson, a Democrat, told reporters at a conference in Washington that the SEC was reasonable in suggesting greater oversight of Musk’s communications, including the threat of new fines if he backslides.

 

[EVNow]

**** them. Tesla would need to build cars for another 4 or 5 years just to offset their waste.

This also shows why people on the left are mainly concerned about government action to solve climate change. "Free market" is incapable of solving such a fundamental problem - if profit is the only motivation. We have to ban fracking and make it illegal to flare gas.

 

[jhm]

The €5000 per vehicle assumed a 50% "bounty". I have no idea what that number really is. It was just an example, but the total came out reasonable compared with the "low 100s of millions of euros" comment.

Understood. There is a lot of room for negotiating on both sides, and I suspect that negotiation might not be nailed down just yet anyway. Maybe a wide range of €2000 to €7000 per vehicle is in the cards.

Side note, in the past Musk as complained about such regulatory windfalls being not fully realizable by Tesla. It get maybe half the benefit, not the full benefit. If Tesla wanted the full benefit, perhaps acquiring FCA would do the trick. The merged Tesla would burdened with how to wind down the legacy ICE business, but to make a full €8000 per EV while actively dismantling ICE production could hold some attraction. Would be poetic justice for the Marchioni legacy. But still I don't really see Musk going for that much irony.

 

[Nocturnal]

Question: Long run, what do you think the ratio of Model 3/Y to Model S/X unit sales to be?

I'm inclined to this this will be about 10 to 1 at the high end or 5 to 1 at the low. In Q1, Tesla delivered 50.9k Model 3 to 12.1k Model S/X, a ratio of 4.2 to 1. This makes sense in the short run, but as logistics smooth out and production of Model 3 catches up with demand, this can converge to a much higher ratio. Long run the ratio will simply reflect the ratio at which orders arrive.

A good long term estimate could be created by looking at the ratio of BMW 5s/7s to 3 series and Mercedes large sedans to small sedans.

This also shows why people on the left are mainly concerned about government action to solve climate change. "Free market" is incapable of solving such a fundamental problem - if profit is the only motivation. We have to ban fracking and make it illegal to flare gas.

Free market solutions forget about the free rider problem. We are already seeing that. Some of us are paying far more than our fair share to be greener while others reap the benefits without any personal cost.

 

[kbM3]

@kbM3 Is that actually on the physical front page of the L.A. Times? That is mind blowing. Although lets also add in 'Mexico City piles on the PDA' as an equally mind blowing front page headline then. I guess we live in bizarro world now? Or I guess just the slowest news day ever.

Yes. That’s the LA Times headline today.

My LA friend was in shock. He said it takes up quite a bit on the 2nd page also,

 

[generalenthu]

This also shows why people on the left are mainly concerned about government action to solve climate change. "Free market" is incapable of solving such a fundamental problem - if profit is the only motivation. We have to ban fracking and make it illegal to flare gas.

Or put in place a price for carbon and enforce it. Not a ridiculously low price like what XOM may propose, but one that reflects the true cost of the externalities.

 

[printf42]

I am a big supporter of Tesla. I own one and bought stock. About 25% of my portfolio is in TSLA. I bought it last year at about $290, believing in the imminent rise of the stock due to increased production. "Short burn of the century"
It didn't materialize and since last quarters deliveries and especially production numbers I am getting cold feet.

My stock are under water and I am at loss what to do. My stock are for a study plan for my kidsI don't need to cash it for another year as my oldest daughter is only going to college next year. Shall I take my loss now before the stock tanks further or is there still hope they will recover. Some things that make me nervous:

- how come that M3 is still not sustainable at 5,000 per week - let alone 6,7, or even 8,000 a week?

- what is it with all these pictures with dust covered cars?

- I see people on YouTube ordering a car only to be called by Tesla within hours that they have a deal for a new 2018 M3. So there is a big stock?

- what is indeed the story with the solar roof? Absolutely nothing is happening there

- suddenly, after years, there is a big push in Software. I don't believe in coincidences. So this in combination with the bad sales and production figures makes me suspicious. Are they trying to change the focus?

-all these restless strategies around pricing of cars and software seems very nervous and not reassuring at all

I could probably think of more.

Am I alone this? Just wondering what other people think and are considering doing

Seem you are a legit owner instead of a troll as it really sounds like.
My advice is to avoid Tweeter when you’re looking for TSLA news.

I have similar cost basis as you and I didn’t sell at 370, and I am certainly not selling at current price levels.
Not an advice.

 

[neroden]

OT

Assuming you can get people to ride it so there are not just empty trains going back and forth.

That's not a problem if you make the (electric) trains go where the people and jobs are.

And keep politicians from inserting poison pills or outright bans to keep the "undesirables" out of their neighbourhoods.

Now, that is a very serious and extremely well documented problem, which happens nearly constantly in many parts of the world. :-( :-( Those politicians are nuts, given that trains tend to *gentrify* neighborhoods, but still, they do it.

These are probably the same people who block and vandalize electric car chargers.

Sigh. I hate stupid malicious people. (I prefer smart malicious people, even.)

And have electric buses feed the trains on a convenient schedule. (It shouldn't take 90 minutes to go less than ten miles by transit, but where I live it does, not counting the time it takes to get to the first bus stop.) I realize that there are places where transit works great, I lived in one of them, but there are more places where it fails.

 

[Nocturnal]

Funny that I never see stuff like this factored in when those comparisons come out comparing the emissions of an already refined gallon of gasoline to the emissions from electricity generated to power an electric car!

Truth be known, with all the incidentals like this linked to oil exploration/extraction/refining/delivery/storage/consumption hindsight will probably show it to compare even less favorably.....

Some stats show that it takes more electricity just to produce gas for an ICE car than an EV requires to run.

 

[neroden]

And here we are in a slowing but still growing economy with Tesla selling under expectations...

No, Tesla's PRODUCING under expectations.

You can often read a lot into what Tesla doesn't say, and they don't say "we're producing at our desired target rate". In this case, all the tea leaves say: not totally out of production hell or delivery hell yet. I don't know why so many people are ignoring these indicators. It is worrisome.

As Musk said, the one thing they are not worried about is demand. Production and delivery, on the other hand...

 

[jerry33]

OT: That's not a problem if you make the (electric) trains go where the people and jobs are.

But that only works where people and jobs are in a tightly congested areas. Not the case in many North American cities where jobs and people are spread out.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Understood. There is a lot of room for negotiating on both sides, and I suspect that negotiation might not be nailed down just yet anyway. Maybe a wide range of €2000 to €7000 per vehicle is in the cards.

Side note, in the past Musk as complained about such regulatory windfalls being not fully realizable by Tesla. It get maybe half the benefit, not the full benefit. If Tesla wanted the full benefit, perhaps acquiring FCA would do the trick. The merged Tesla would burdened with how to wind down the legacy ICE business, but to make a full €8000 per EV while actively dismantling ICE production could hold some attraction. Would be poetic justice for the Marchioni legacy. But still I don't really see Musk going for that much irony.

I think FCA will be winding itself down. Those EU limits are just brutal, and I don’t know how you gear up to produce EVs (or even hybrids) when you are structurally hemorrhaging €1-2 billion a year in penalties. I thought the Tesla deal might be a lifeline, but FCA are in such a bad place that even that doesn’t look like it will be all that much help.