Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ggr]

Mod: I just deleted a bunch of posts about twitter management. They had no relevance to Tesla. But then I discovered that there were 13 more pages of posts. Many of the ones I deleted referred to "the bird" or similar euphemisms, but you know, that doesn't work on me, that makes them still about twitter. I had to skip those many pages, don't think that means they were acceptable. So the net effect is that I'm getting very upset about continued violations of pretty clear guidelines. Post about "the bird" at your own risk, I promise not to be gentle. --ggr

 

[ZeApelido]

Karen has concerns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604861182912913408

 

[MC3OZ]

It really just goes to show how all analysts, even the ones that are considered top quality ones, can be completely clueless. This really wreaks of 2018-2019 where practically every analyst, even the top notch ones, completely missed not just the potential of Tesla, but the very basics of what was happening within the company when it came to their margins and operating margin potential.

It's the same thing happening with FSD revenue, the Commerical side of Tesla auto, ignoring upcoming Tesla consumer vehicles (Cybertruck and Compact), IRA impacts to their business and demand, and especially, Tesla Energy. Even China will be a catalyst in 2023 because they're finally abandoning their Covid lockdowns...which have been the main impact on demand for Tesla in China.

There are so many big catalysts upcoming in Q1 but even the best analysts get caught up in the noise.

Many analysts would like to be a wolf, but the share price hypnotizes them into being a sheep.

It is far easier for us to stick to our convictions and follow the fundamentals, we don't have nervous clients questioning why our opinion differs from the market.

 

[thesmokingman]

Karen has concerns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604861182912913408

So sad she still has a hard on for him. Leave the man alone, he killed you by paying billions in taxes more than any other HUMAN in the history of the world lady.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[trayloader]

What would you pay for Tesla to rebuild/refresh your car along with a renewed warranty?

Serious question.

10-15000. supercharging flat extra.

 

[thesmokingman]

View attachment 886867

Someone here called this yesterday well most with the M2, but I forget whom?

 

[thesmokingman]

EViking on it again today. This time he's looking into the ticking time bomb that is debt for legacies. You probably won't be surprised who he lands on as the winner. I mean, they can't even build one w/o its wheels falling off so...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We're gonna have 130-140 million shares traded today and end the day at 149.99 huh.

Probably not the bottom but hey, at least is seems like there's some serious accumulation going right now. It's definitely not Elon selling now that we're in a the quiet period.

 

[cusetownusa]

Go to the Tesla home page, and do not immediately click a model listed at the top. Instead scroll down to see the model you want. Then choose to custom order.

or select a model and scroll down for both options...at least that is how it works for me.

 

[Curt Renz]

or select a model and scroll down for both options...at least that is how it works for me.

For me it works that way for some models/configurations and not others. What always works for me is immediately scrolling down to a model and not clicking a model name at the top.

 

[MC3OZ]

Only on ex-demo cars as far as I can see, and there are very few inventory cars in Europe

This could be playing out like a traditional Q4.

Elon said that the team was executing well, I assume that means manufacturing and logistics.

 

[AndrewZ]

Ok.....but again, we know some of the COGS are already dropping. Steel prices are lower than they were in this time in 2020. Price of aluminum has dropped 50% since March 2021. Copper is practically the same price as it was in late Dec 2020. As far as I'm aware, Tesla doesn't have long term contracts for these commodities, they just have long term contracts on Lithium.

So Tesla has already taken the hit from these commodity price increase and will these headwinds will turn into tailwinds as these commodity prices drop further. Whenever the contract on Lithium expires, Tesla will have the benefits from the IRA, which will drastically offset the new price of Lithium that they'll pay.

Meanwhile, we know that worldwide, economies are about to go through a softening or even a recession, which means the cost of all of the commodities listed above with the exception of Lithium (due to EV adoption) will continue to drop. This isn't even taking into account the drop in shipping costs, which has plummeted and will plummet even more if the auto industry goes into a contraction (the ICE part).

We have no idea how their costs are flowing based on their procurement methods versus changes in spot or futures prices. I haven't worked in auto manufacturing but have worked in various types of fabrication and large-scale purchasing, and I know it's not that simple.

But because you're so unabashedly optimistic, I went right to the source to see if there was any official commentary around this stuff. Here are the remarks from the Q3 earnings call where the team was asked about commodity prices, starting @ 51:02 and going until about 54mins

Zachary tried to set the expectation that the decline in commodity prices and even shipping etc will not be "some windfall of cost reduction in this space coming in Q4" but that they're optimistic about seeing it flow through next year. That sounds more realistic, assuming commodity prices don't pick up again in 2023 and they shouldn't if we're entering a recession.

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[trayloader]

So sad she still has a hard on for him. Leave the man alone, he killed you by paying billions in taxes more than any other HUMAN in the history of the world lady.

You are mixing things up. Her concern in this case is valid. Read it.

 

[wipster]

We're gonna have 130-140 million shares traded today and end the day at 149.99 huh.

Probably not the bottom but hey, at least is seems like there's some serious accumulation going right now. It's definitely not Elon selling now that we're in a the quiet period.

Missed it by  that much...

 

[Drumheller]

Does this imply that Sen. Warren is a TSLA shareholder?

U.S. Senator Warren questions Tesla board oversight of Musk purchase of Twitter

She and her husband have held TSLA positions for quite some time. There is an account on another app that tracks all of her stock moves so that retail investors can copy her moves, and indirectly benefit from the Congress's insider trading

 

[Skipdd]

You are mixing things up. Her concern in this case is valid. Read it.

Disagreed because it seems like a stretch that this falls under her purview. And, it’s a bad look when even, the NYT quotes her as “Last month, Ms. Warren said, “I don’t think any billionaire ought to be the one who has that kind of power, to decide how Americans, how people around the world get a chance to talk to each other.” She added, “I got a real problem with him.” [Bold is mine]. So, it’s unclear to me that her legislative concern is valid, notwithstanding any personal concerns.

I see now @Drumheller ‘s post and find it not a little ironic that she is raising potential Conflict of Interest issues.

 

[Paracelsus]

Karen has concerns.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604861182912913408

The media and elected officials on both sides of the aisle expressing concern over Elon and Twitter just means they are getting real concerned they are about to get caught with their hands in the cookie jar IMO. I take this tweet as a sign that there has been at least some longer-term value to this rough and bumpy ride the last few months

 

[ZeApelido]

March?!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604948865798574080