And here's our first glimpse of the 100KWh battery module... I hereby nickname it "Centurion"...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Must have been an awkward ride home from the hospital that evening.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
I think part of the reason is that by aiming at a hard but achievable target, it motivates, so more is achieved. Moving faster is thought to be more important that Wall Street. Ultimately Tesla earns more, even if $TSLA suffers in the short term. Growth of 40% or 50% is still wonderful. Some years it will be 70-100%
Just getting around to listening to this whole thing from Oct 22nd...a few tidbits stand out.
- Munro **only** does EV work now. NO ICE work being accepted!
- Munro is tight with IDRA
- 12 more 8000 ton Gigapress's coming to North America
- Dies for Gigapress's are done by another company in Italy which get 100k "shots" (cycles) before needing maintenance/replacement (2.5X industry norm)
- Dies can be swapped to switch to a different form factor
- Example --> Make CT, Roadster, Semi on the same Gigapress by swapping dies.
- Dies can be swapped to switch to a different form factor
cliff harris
Member
I really cannot get my head around the idea that there are demand concerns. I've owned my new model Y performance (RHD) forabout 6 weeks now. I had to wait a YEAR to get this car. You still cannot just decide to buy a tesla here and get one the same day, not even close. And thats with just TWO available cars (S/X not here yet), and a choice of 5 colors in total, and 2 interiors, and zero advertising.
I would KILL to have a business that could so effortlessly shift £70,000 cars with a £30k profit and zero adveritising or marketing.
Anyone who thinks Tesla has a demand problem is just wrong. Its not a matter of emphasis, or a matter of being conservative or cautious, its just WRONG.
I'll believe they have a deman problem te day I'm sick of seeing TV ads and billboards everywhere trying to get new orders.
Ignore this idiocy.
Given that we are only 4 days in to '23, there's a lot of decade left. Might be a bit premature to decide that TE is not going to be a major player.
Subsequent posts have addressed this somewhat... but the power products have gone through many changes/revisions thus far. My guess is they are working to get the scale right, and then will relentlessly drive down cost and enhance gross margin on the products as they gain market share. And given they have what appears to be a 1-2 yr order backlog, I suspect they have lots of runway to make this happen.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
For 2023 credit has to be claimed on someone's taxes. It is not till 2024 that it is deducted at point of sale. That will give everyone pause for clarity.
Please add your voice if you haven't already ...
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ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
I lost my respect for him when I watched one of his videos in which he claimed that you can make free money almost guaranteed by selling calls… he was way off then and even more now…
On the plus side, it looks like name brand value investors are getting involved at these prices.
Here is Dan Loeb talking positively (clarifies down thread) and twitter tells me Cliff Asness (of AQR) liked this tweet. The latter is mostly a quant guy, but runs a bigger book of assets.
Here is Dan Loeb talking positively (clarifies down thread) and twitter tells me Cliff Asness (of AQR) liked this tweet. The latter is mostly a quant guy, but runs a bigger book of assets.
For a car to be considered a new energy clean vehicle and qualify for the credit at all in 2024, it also needs to have 0 battery components from China.
Found this tweet. Glad he already have the fund to buy the 3 million shares and he does not use margins.
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Concerning profits for Tesla Energy:
This shouldn't come from selling the hardware, but from trading the energy using Autobidder.
I don't expect this to provide any meaningfull profit for Q1. Revenue will be noticable.
Autobidder value will come from having rapid meaningfull installed capacity, think GWh spread across the country. Software is the real power here, have this megapacks act like a new virtual powerplant on the grid.
Many pennies that will accumulate from trading energy on the market.
This shouldn't come from selling the hardware, but from trading the energy using Autobidder.
I don't expect this to provide any meaningfull profit for Q1. Revenue will be noticable.
Autobidder value will come from having rapid meaningfull installed capacity, think GWh spread across the country. Software is the real power here, have this megapacks act like a new virtual powerplant on the grid.
Many pennies that will accumulate from trading energy on the market.
JupiterMan
Active Member
he makes things up as he goes along, then changes it., then claims he was right all along. no respect for him whatsoever. In fact I've now blocked him.
A stopped clock will be right only twice a day. This macro is simply his stopped clock moment and even then he didn't call it right.
Yes I know. Just how it used to be when Tesla would use it in "potential savings".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Wowsers! That's enough tooling for another ~3M cars per year production (eg: if the compact car uses just one large megacasting per car)
I've heard separately (from a Joe Tegtmeyer video IIRC) that Tesla is already milling their own dies at Giga Texas. With such a high wear consumable, it'd be quite risky to have that tooling made on another continent.
Paging @Krugerrand for the color.
Cheers!
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Fremont and Shanghai numbers probably too low.
Shanghai already had two months of 87.7k and 88.6k production on Oct and Nov. With 89k per month at Shanghai (no growth scenario), production of 900k would imply 8 weeks of downtime, almost as much as in ‘22.
Also Fremont is probably in the low 140s per quarter already which is around 570k annualized. This can be estimated based on known Chinese production and estimated production from Germany and Texas. The nominal capacity at Fremont per Tesla’s Q3 report is 650k.
If these ~150k worth of adjustments are made then the conservative base case where the growth all comes from modest improvements in Berlin and Austin, then the total estimate comes to 2.2M.
Since people (I may have been one of them) have posted Peter Zeihan videos here before, thought I'd alert you to one of the worse examples of anti-EV and anti-TSLA FUD I've had the misfortune to witness in a loooong time. He posts daily videos and today's was a doozy. He literally makes up crap (like Teslas aren't bought as a primary vehicle, but instead as a 3rd or 4th luxury status vehicle) and no worldwide commodity has doubled in volume over ten years (whereas lithium has done 2x in a year and 3x in five years recently). He even pulls out the trope that EVs are more carbon intensive. Anyways, sad to see, and it makes the rest of his analysis pretty suspect.
We love uncle Leo's commitment to Tesla but he does seem to take it way to personal that Elon unfollowed him.
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