Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Do people really have a hard time understanding that the The Boring Company is not Tesla? It doesn't matter if The Boring Company is making a profit, or losing money, on each ride. Any person that decides to buy a Tesla after a ride cost Tesla nothing.

If the Boring Company makes a profit, then it's a profit centre--just not a Tesla profit centre (other than the cars that are purchased due to the ride).

 

[Mengy]

Most of the market is green today, but TSLA is of course solidly down. Probably on the China sales news.


Seems like every time the market has an up day there is something negative going on with Tesla news to counter it. I'm getting tired of that.

 

[vikings123]

Tesla is a unicorn amongst growth stocks! 40%-50% yoy growth with a growth story for the next decade on 28% margins. Can anyone name another story liek this?

To be fair investors are likely worried about all the incentives/price cuts in Q4 and the margin impacts going forward. It could be 28% and it could also be 24% or 20%. Tesla can likely have reduced gross margins and still be OK from an operating margin perspective.

I'm very well aware of all the analysis in this thread, Zach's comments in Q3 call and from other Tesla analysts but it would be naive to make any statements on margin until we see the actual numbers.

If we show steady margins then IMO we will likely see a huge upward adjustment to the stock price.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Meet Kevin video on expectations around FED pivot etc. Key segment for us discusses how companies with low to zero profits will be hard pressed to maintain market share vs those who have fat margins and can lower prices while increasing output and gaining share. Example is BYD vs Tesla.

Specific example starts at 25 mins in.

That thumbnail image of JPow is a classic. The happy go lucky, can't print money fast enough JPow of '21 may have been irresponsible, but he sure was a lot more fun, lol.

 

[thesmokingman]

That thumbnail image of JPow is a classic. The happy go lucky, can't print money fast enough JPow of '21 may have been irresponsible, but he sure was a lot more fun, lol.

Fun and oblivious? I guess that's better than when that time someone asked him if he knew the market was greening as he was speaking. And then when the dust settled...

 

[Motor Mouth]

Most of the market is green today, but TSLA is of course solidly down. Probably on the China sales news.


Seems like every time the market has an up day there is something negative going on with Tesla news to counter it. I'm getting tired of that.

I feel ya, but today's action smacks of the SP taking a breather to me. In the current environment, there's so much negative garbage out there that I think it's truly just become noise to pretty much everyone. A couple of up days followed by a down day doesn't surprise me in the least. Nobody believes in TSLA right now and it's just gonna bump along for a while is my best guess. Not even sure that earnings are going to make too much of an impression. We're just detached from any rational evaluation for a while. And that's ok as far as I'm concerned.

 

[navguy12]

That sort of anecdote adds some credence to the idea that Tesla should do some limited advertising to trumpet their safety record etc.

Few people realize how safe they are. If you let your opponents speak with impunity...

When having a late Christmas supper with my dad last week, my dad’s first inquiry was about, “Did you see that Tesla that fell down a cliff and everyone lived?”

He then waxed poetic that that incident was the best marketing that Tesla could hope for, how anyone with kids would want to check out the product.

My dad was a salesman for 42 years and I trust his point of view when it comes to marketing angles.

 

[thesmokingman]

When having a late Christmas supper with my dad last week, my dad’s first inquiry was about, “Did you see that Tesla that fell down a cliff and everyone lived?”

He then waxed poetic that that incident was the best marketing that Tesla could hope for, how anyone with kids would want to check out the product.

My dad was a salesman for 42 years and I trust his point of view when it comes to marketing angles.

Yea this times 100. Even my mom's asked me about it. You don't need advertising when the product's speak for themselves. Other companies could spend billions on ads and never get this!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Adam Jonas out with another note about how Tesla is "uniquely positioned to lead engineering and cost improvements that have yet to truly unlock the scale potential of the EV economy"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612894018194575367

 

[googlepeakoil]

If the Boring Company makes a profit, then it's a profit centre--just not a Tesla profit centre (other than the cars that are purchased due to the ride).

What I find silly about the Boring company that nobody seems to say (like an emperor with no clothes) is when people going, "what a fantastic way to get from A->B!" when you see a car driving down a tunnel and emerging at a different point in LA in 3 minutes when over-ground it might take 5 is that ONE tunnel works one way. That one tunnel can't also serve people going B->A. Most train subway tunnels are built in pairs. You need both directions or it's silly!
And I don't believe Elon has reinvented the wheel. You previously had TBM's - tunnel boring machines. More or less automated machines that make tunnels. Is there many 4m diameter TBM's vs 8m diameter, probably not. But is there a real market for lots of 4m tunnels? No, I don't think so!

 

[Cosmacelf]

What I find silly about the Boring company that nobody seems to say (like an emperor with no clothes) is when people going, "what a fantastic way to get from A->B!" when you see a car driving down a tunnel and emerging at a different point in LA in 3 minutes when over-ground it might take 5 is that ONE tunnel works one way. That one tunnel can't also serve people going B->A. Most train subway tunnels are built in pairs. You need both directions or it's silly!
And I don't believe Elon has reinvented the wheel. You previously had TBM's - tunnel boring machines. More or less automated machines that make tunnels. Is there many 4m diameter TBM's vs 8m diameter, probably not. But is there a real market for lots of 4m tunnels? No, I don't think so!

I’d recommend putting your prose through ChatGPT. It is hard to extract what your point is. Regardless, this has zero to do with TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

it would be naive to make any statements on margin until we see the actual numbers.

Ha! That's not naive, that's speculation. That's kinda what investors do, so your point was... ?

 

[dhanson865]

What I find silly about the Boring company that nobody seems to say (like an emperor with no clothes) is when people going, "what a fantastic way to get from A->B!" when you see a car driving down a tunnel and emerging at a different point in LA in 3 minutes when over-ground it might take 5 is that ONE tunnel works one way. That one tunnel can't also serve people going B->A. Most train subway tunnels are built in pairs. You need both directions or it's silly!
And I don't believe Elon has reinvented the wheel. You previously had TBM's - tunnel boring machines. More or less automated machines that make tunnels. Is there many 4m diameter TBM's vs 8m diameter, probably not. But is there a real market for lots of 4m tunnels? No, I don't think so!

Nobody has to say that because all the boring company tunnels are dug in pairs also. It's so obvious for tunnels no one makes a big deal out of it.

Spoiler: picture of the side by side tunnels

That would be those dull white circles in the wall at the back of the picture

note: not all pairs have to be perfectly parallel.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’d recommend putting your prose through ChatGPT. It is hard to extract what your point is. Regardless, this has zero to do with TSLA.

I just put the mods out of work. Sorry mods! (or maybe "you are welcome"?)

The Boring Company is a tunnel construction company that was founded by Elon Musk, who is also the CEO of Tesla. While the Boring Company's work may be interesting and innovative, it may not be directly relevant to the financial performance or future prospects of Tesla. Therefore, discussing the details of the Boring Company's tunnels in a forum for Tesla investors may not be considered on-topic or important for those interested in analyzing and discussing the investment potential of Tesla.

As a public company, Tesla is required to disclose any financial or operational ties it has to other companies, so if there is any material impact of the Boring Company on Tesla's financial statements, it would be required to be reported in the company's financial filings.

Furthermore, as a Tesla investor, one would be more interested in Tesla’s production, sales, and deliveries, financial performance and guidance, research and development progress, and future plans, and these are the key aspects investors would like to discuss. The Boring Company's tunneling work, while interesting, may not have a significant impact on those aspects of the business, and therefore may not be considered important to discuss in a forum for Tesla investors.

This is not to say that discussion about Boring Company is not interesting but it's more likely to be relevant for infrastructure or construction industry investment forum rather than a forum for Tesla investors.

-chatgpt

 

[JupiterMan]

What I find silly about the Boring company that nobody seems to say (like an emperor with no clothes) is when people going, "what a fantastic way to get from A->B!" when you see a car driving down a tunnel and emerging at a different point in LA in 3 minutes when over-ground it might take 5 is that ONE tunnel works one way. That one tunnel can't also serve people going B->A. Most train subway tunnels are built in pairs. You need both directions or it's silly!
And I don't believe Elon has reinvented the wheel. You previously had TBM's - tunnel boring machines. More or less automated machines that make tunnels. Is there many 4m diameter TBM's vs 8m diameter, probably not. But is there a real market for lots of 4m tunnels? No, I don't think so!

errrr, 2 tunnels, one going each way......

 

[vikings123]

Ha! That's not naive, that's speculation. That's kinda what investors do, so you point was... ?

Haha those two words mean the same thing in my native language

I'm not sure what the point of your response was but are you saying it's a bad idea to wait for numbers? OK...

 

[thesmokingman]

Haha those two words mean the same thing in my native language

I'm not sure what the point of your response was but are you saying it's a bad idea to wait for numbers? OK...

You know my post... it wasn't speculation, it wasn't guessing, it was based on what Tesla has done to now. I didn't need someone to state the obvious. Instead I posed a question, find us another example of a unicorn, but you took that as someone needing a lesson on speculation? Ok?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Haha those two words mean the same thing in my native language

I'm not sure what the point of your response was but are you saying it's a bad idea to wait for numbers? OK...

Er, what's you native language?... At any rate, the point is Investors are going to speculate, that's what they do. Risk tolerance is another topic. I think if I had low risk tolerance when I opened my TSLA position in Apr 2018 I'd have no TSLA right now.

TL;dr Waiting for numbers is the road to mediocre returns. Prediction is the skill of merit, and is sometimes rewarded by the Market.

 

[vikings123]

You know my post... it wasn't speculation, it wasn't guessing, it was based on what Tesla has done to now. I didn't need someone to state the obvious. Instead I posed a question, find us another example of a unicorn, but you took that as someone needing a lesson on speculation? Ok?

"Tesla is a unicorn amongst growth stocks! 40%-50% yoy growth with a growth story for the next decade on 28% margins"

Sorry how is this not guessing? Key words "next decade". It is based on Tesla's track record over the last couple of years but to accuse me of giving you a lesson is just silly. I basically wrote what I think investors will be looking for as confirmation.

Anyway, we can agree to disagree as a respect to others. I also don't want to get two funny reactions on the same day from @Artful Dodger lol.

 

[thesmokingman]

"Tesla is a unicorn amongst growth stocks! 40%-50% yoy growth with a growth story for the next decade on 28% margins"

Sorry how is this not guessing? Key words "next decade". It is based on Tesla's track record over the last couple of years but to accuse me of giving you a lesson is just silly. I basically wrote what I think investors will be looking for as confirmation.

Anyway, we can agree to disagree as a respect to others. I also don't want to get two funny reactions on the same day from @Artful Dodger lol.

Then name another if its not dude wtf man? Ohh and its not guessing. ICE bans in Cali by 2035, EU - 2035, US in 2045. Who the **** is gonna make all those EVs to replace all those ICE????