They will affect Tesla's gm smaller and smaller unless Tesla's next mission is to build 4 gigas at the same time, keeping the same ratio going where Shanghai was a drag on Fremont, then Texas/Berlin was a drag on Shanghai/Fremont.
Tesla still needs to double production line output more rapidly than every two years. So Austin and Berlin will both be ramping phase 2 very soon.This has been stated by other poster(s) but I will restate their position with my words for hopefully added clarity.
As a company grows in size, new factories have less and less impact on margins.
When Shanghai was ramping - we had 1 efficient site (Fremont) and 1 inefficient site (Shanghai)
With Berlin/Austin ramping, we now have 2 efficient sites and 2 inefficient sites.
By Dec of this year, we will have 4 efficient sites, unless Tesla ramps 4 new site at once, the drag of 1 or 2 new sites will be less as we now have 4 efficient sites producing 2M cars.
Keep in mind that much of the 50% growth year on year is expansion at existing efficient sites where there is virtually no drag on margins.
Look at Shanghai, it produced about 480m cars in 2021 and 725m in 2022 -There was no drag on margins from Shanghai in 2021 and 2022 from what I can see.
I guess the question becomes how much of a drag from the initial building of a factory included in phase1, versus drags from expanding a factory’s output in subsequent phases. Obviously adding brand new production lines in existing factories, mean those have to be ramped, but if the fixed cost absorption for land and buildings is mostly realized in phase1, then phase 2 will be easier.
But both Semi and Cybertruck are completely new programs that will undoubtedly be more difficult to ramp, later this year and into next.