bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Elon working on his moat to impress the Buffett:
Who the hell has a beaver as a pet . . . in a house made of wood . . .
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Elon working on his moat to impress the Buffett:
Who the hell has a beaver as a pet . . . in a house made of wood . . .
To be fair, I'm made of meat and own a dog.Who the hell has a beaver as a pet . . . in a house made of wood . . .
Don’t think amount withheld makes any difference, nor whether you get a refund. IANAA, bit I think it only relates to Adjusted Gross Income.People, cut your withholdings during the year. Don't wait for a refund at the end.
From the price drop? 30% on the price before the drop.
Model Y $65,990 $52,990 -$13K (-20%)
What is your point here? Why wouldn't you just look at Q3 2022 margins from the latest report? Why are you bringing up margins from 2021?Don't quit your day job, because you are really REALLY bad at these margin calculations. Tesla already had 30+% margins (reported in the SEC filings - this is fact, not supposition) on the Model Y back in 2021, before there were IRA battery credits, IRA customer tax credits, and Berlin and Austin were sucking down $$$ and not producing any substantial volume of cars.
TBMs are actually not more or less automated, and importantly, Boring Co claims to be pursuing 100% automation with Prufrock. If so, my understanding is that new advantages for speed and cost are unlocked not only from the automation itself but also from not having to deal with worker safety concerns.And I don't believe Elon has reinvented the wheel. You previously had TBM's - tunnel boring machines. More or less automated machines that make tunnels. Is there many 4m diameter TBM's vs 8m diameter, probably not. But is there a real market for lots of 4m tunnels? No, I don't think so!
I just configured my Model 3 (LR, midnight silver, fancy wheels) which I bought 2 1/2 years ago:According to my records the following price changes have occured in the UK, standard options:
Model 3 | £48,490 -- > £42,990 (-11.34%)
Model 3 LR | £57,490 -- > £50,990 (-11.31%)
Model 3 Performance | £61,490 --> £57,990 (-5.69%)
Model Y | £51,990 --> £44,990 (-14.43%)
Model Y LR | £57,990 --> £52,990 (-8.62%)
Model Y Performance | £67,990 --> £59,990 (-11.77%)
What is your point here? Why wouldn't you just look at Q3 2022 margins from the latest report? Why are you bringing up margins from 2021?
Could you do the calculation for us?
Your assumptions are as poor as my cutting things by 2/3.Because things are so much more like early 2021 than they are even Q3 2022.
1) exchange rates have made a U-turn, and in a pretty substantial way
2) commodity prices have dropped HARD from Q3 (a quick google search bears this out)
3) shipping prices have dropped HARD from Q3 (also a quick google search)
I could go on, but you should really read @Gigapress's posts and @The Accountant on things like this. They have DEEP analyses that are historically pretty darned accurate. Not "cutting things by 2/3" like you did. LoL.
Because things are so much more like early 2021 than they are even Q3 2022.
1) exchange rates have made a U-turn, and in a pretty substantial way
2) commodity prices have dropped HARD from Q3 (a quick google search bears this out)
3) shipping prices have dropped HARD from Q3 (also a quick google search)
I could go on, but you should really read @Gigapress's posts and @The Accountant on things like this. They have DEEP analyses that are historically pretty darned accurate. Not "cutting things by 2/3" like you did. LoL.
I paid $51990 for my Y in 2021 ($1,000 less than the current price), and Gross Margins were 30.5% that quarter. Now they have more than 2X the production, which lowers costs and balances some commodity price increases. Gross margins will be fine.Yes, by my calculations we should expect current margins on cars to be around 12-13% after these price cuts. The stock is going to feel a sting this year due to this.
HOWEVER, with production ramping and Berlin/Austin becoming more efficient, we should also expect margins to get a bit better throughout the year as economies of scale improve things. That said, the days of Tesla's enormous margins on cars is likely behind us now, at least for a year or two I'd say. They should still have industry leading margins, but at half or less than half what we are used to.
Unless Tesla can pull a giant rabbit out of their hat...
Your assumptions are as poor as my cutting things by 2/3.
Q3 2023 was 3 months ago but somehow you know things are more like early 2021?
Did you also know about the 405k deliveries? Could you enlighten us about Q4 earnings? You seem to have a lot of stats about commodities and shipping prices. What kind of contracts does Tesla have and when do they get renewed?