Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Blue horseshoe]

To counter your opinion with my opinion, I don't think TSLA will get above $275 in 2023. However, once the Fed starts lowering rates in 2024 I think we'll finally start climbing closer towards our ATH, and maybe by the end of 2024 we'll get back there. Maybe. But likely we'll cross $414 sometime in 2025 IMHO.

Not financial advice, of course!

By the end of 2023 Tesla will likely pass $100 billion in trailing twelve month revenue. By then the fed will have likely paused further rate hikes and the economy will see light at the end of the tunnel. Without factoring in fsd, dojo, and Optimus I can see us very easily trading over $300 per share by year end. $330 by year end would be a price to sales ratio of 10. At teslas growth rates a price to sales ratio of 15-20 would not be unreasonable

 

[y_naught]

I bought a house (Japan trip was eye-opening and enlightening), am in the middle of escrow, need to sell a little of my remaining TSLA holding, and am playing russian roulette with the share price during this debt ceiling ..."process". I have a little over a month.

Any feedback? I'm leaning towards just selling sometime this week and be happy.

I would hold a bit.

Seriously, I hope it works/Oakes out for you. Congrats on the house!

 

[GSP]

Ah, only v3 … I wonder why? Maybe Tesla doesn’t want Fords to clog the neighborhood 72kW chargers.

IIRC, only V3 superchargers are capable of the CCS protocol to communicate with EVs. V3 can also communicate with Tesla's proprietary protocol, which is needed for older Tesla's that are not CCS capable. V2 superchargers only have Tesla's proprietary protocol, IIRC.

For some reason, it seems like Tesla is not interested in updating V2 superchargers, and I doubt Tesla or Ford would want to use Tesla's protocol on Ford vehicles. I speculate this is the reason only V3 superchargers will be open to Ford.

I do expect the V2 superchargers to go away at some point. They will be uneconomical to maintain, and replaced with V4 or later superchargers.

GSP

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ford’s not going to disclose that because it takes the shine off of the deal for them. Hence why Ford is up 7% right now.

And unfortunately for us Tesla doesn’t seem to care about disclosing the financial terms in deals like this. We’ll have to wait until Q1 2024’s earnings to see what Ford is paying Tesla and how they’re doing it ( payment fee up front, payment per Ford Pass that’s activated, etc…)

Let’s also not forget that this deal doesn’t change the current structure for Tesla where all non Tesla EV’s are charged a higher rate than Tesla owners. Tesla can at anytime up those rates even more to generate more profit…which I genuinely hope they do.

Hope they don't. That'd either trigger antitrust or suggest their costs are too high. Just do it well and take a steady profit.

 

[Wingfoiler]

In addition to the possible revenue opportunities from opening the charging network to non-Tesla vehicles, the partnership with Ford may help de-risk two of the bigger potential risks that I see to Tesla achieving their scaling goals:

Risk #1: Anti-Tesla politics due to collapse of legacy automakers and associated infrastructure, while Tesla and Elon become extremely wealthy. Lending a hand to help at least some legacy automakers get over the hump to the post-ICE world may make it less of a “Tesla killed our jobs” situation with less political cross-sectional area exposed.

Risk #2: Tesla production scaling outpaces the readiness of the general consumer to pivot to EVs. The partnership with Ford (and hopefully others) helps as it is critical that overall EV adoption not be limited by how terrible the fast charging experience is for non-Tesla customers.

As a long-term investor, the reason I follow day-to-day news is to monitor how longer-term risk/opportunities are affected by the latest actions. The Ford announcement fits solidly in that category.

I’ve been considering posting the more complete list of risks that I am keeping an eye on, to try to help foster a productive dialogue regarding the long term factors that impact Tesla’s business. Let me know if you think that would be useful; I am reticent to be dropped into care-bear category as a relatively new poster.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla doesn’t seem to care about disclosing the financial terms in deals like this.

It is in their best interest to keep these details confidential. Gives them a stronger hand in negotiations with other players in the market.

Now that Ford is onboard, Tesla has a stronger hand and can be tougher at the negotiating table. If they release details, it gives the other auto makers a critical negotiating tool. I’d expect GM and others to pay more than Ford.

 

[mongo]

The figure "12,000" literally comes from the title of yesterday's P.R. by Ford:

Ford EV Customers to Gain Access To 12,000 Tesla Superchargers; Company To Add North American Charging Standard Port In Future Evs​

Since we know that Tesla had about 17K Supercharger stalls in 2023Q1, and we know their current buildout rate for the SC network, we can estimate that providing access to 12K SC stalls to Ford in 2024Q1 is about half of Tesla's total SC infrastructure in N. America. I think this is comparable to the access Tesla currently provides to 3rd parties in Europe.

Cheers!

Yep that's the title. Here's the body:

"Starting early next year, Ford EV customers will have access to more than 12,000 Tesla Superchargers across the U.S. and Canada,"

"This is great news for our customers who will have unprecedented access to the largest network of fast-chargers in the U.S. and Canada with 12,000+ Tesla Superchargers"

There is a restriction, but it's not a percentage:
"A Tesla-developed adapter will provide Ford F-150 Lightning, Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit vehicles fitted with the Combined Charging System (CCS) port access to Tesla’s V3 Superchargers."

Going with your 17k total number and a floor of 12k, that's 70% of the current total (ignoring impact +/- of magic dock).
Any build out from now forward is V3+, so compatible
and increasing the percentage of pedestals Fords have access to. Build rate is around 3k SpC globally per quarter; if NA gets 1k a quarter, that's at least 15k/20k by early 2024, so 75%. Better than half.

 

[Singuy]

Hope they don't. That'd either trigger antitrust or suggest their costs are too high. Just do it well and take a steady profit.

Anti trust for what? According to short sellers, EA, and marketing material from legacy auto, the tesla super charging network is not even that big. Then add up all the 110v sockets and Tesla supercharger makes up like 1% of the total "charging infrastructure ".

Nothing wrong with paying more to have a more reliable premium experience.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Heaven I hope not. Supercharging is a fantastic bridge between Tesla Auto and Tesla Energy. I want them to stay fully integrated into the Tesla company.

Besides, spin-offs are not Tesla's style. It's the opposite of vertical integration.

First time on TMC I have heard Tesla's Supercharging Network correctly described as a "bridge" instead of the opposite, a "moat". Well done @bkp_duke. Well done Tesla. Tesla's Supercharging Network will unify most all EVs and I look forward to those days, sooner this happens the better.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, true, but most research I've seen suggests that price promotions tend to influence choice between two or more vendors of a given item, rarely influencing an actual product choice.

Hmm…and I just bought an expensive item from a vendor with a higher price. Exact same product, one vendor offered it at a 15% discount. I did not choose that vendor.

On the face of it, that seems dumb and throwing money away. Except the more expensive vendor had a better website (easier to navigate, more information available, online instant chat etc…). Additionally, provided real life top notch customer service answering fully and in depth via email, then actually picked up the phone and talked to me, investigated the other vendor on my behalf and was upfront and honest that that vendor was approved to sell the product, admitted the other vendor was indeed offering a better price that they couldn’t match HOWEVER did in fact offer me a price reduction.

In the end I paid more because I felt if there was ever an issue, I had a better chance of getting it resolved with this vendor.

Ultimately, I agree with you. What motivates people to purchase varies and can be multi-faceted. People are both simple and complicated all at once.

Inventory levels across the world are trending down. Given that Berlin/Austin hit 5k/week over the past month, I would have to imagine they average somewhere around 4,000-4,200/week for Q2. Which means production across all factories would support a delivery number of 475k, if not 500k. Not saying it’s going to happen but it’s hard to understand how inventory can be dropping worldwide while production has materially ramped this quarter and not get a delivery number significantly higher than expectations

Frankly harder for me to understand given the demand problem we’ve been assured is happening and Tesla yet to *hic* ‘advertise’ to any noticeable degree.

Truly a conundrum, huh?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

To counter your opinion with my opinion, I don't think TSLA will get above $275 in 2023. However, once the Fed starts lowering rates in 2024 I think we'll finally start climbing closer towards our ATH, and maybe by the end of 2024 we'll get back there. Maybe. But likely we'll cross $414 sometime in 2025 IMHO.

Not financial advice, of course!

A week ago I would have agreed with you. I may have even posted similar. Now I think we might be 5 months behind NVDA, and if we copy and paste the NVDA movement of the last 5 months onto our chart, say starting two weeks ago, that gets us over 400. I know this is wishful thinking and based less on fundamentals and more on my perception of market psychology.

 

[H Mak]

This is monthly chart TSLA
Once it breaks 19 months long trendline to upside like $207 to $210 range, then the games begin
Until then it’s just a waiting game
In my personal opinion, $400+ will likely happen before 2023 is over
Not investment or financial advice
I’m usually wrong
View attachment 941245

You might usually be wrong but you're usually entertaining

 

[Xepa777]

Nice seeing healthy volume on here in a positive way again it’s been too long

 

[Singuy]

A week ago I would have agreed with you. I may have even posted similar. Now I think we might be 5 months behind NVDA, and if we copy and paste the NVDA movement of the last 5 months onto our chart, say starting two weeks ago, that gets us over 400. I know this is wishful thinking and based less on fundamentals and more on my perception of market psychology.

Wait did I miss a catalyst for Tesla which makes you think we will move like Nvidia?

Most people think Nvidia is 2 years behind Tsla and this is their 2020 tsla moment.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Even if there is no payment for it. Just starting the deluge and adding consumers to kWh priced above purchase will be enough value.

Yeah, I agree. I think there probably is some kind of licensing arrangement but I won't mind at all if Ford drivers simply pay for what they use.

 

[Unpilot]

In addition to the possible revenue opportunities from opening the charging network to non-Tesla vehicles, the partnership with Ford may help de-risk two of the bigger potential risks that I see to Tesla achieving their scaling goals:

Risk #1: Anti-Tesla politics due to collapse of legacy automakers and associated infrastructure, while Tesla and Elon become extremely wealthy. Lending a hand to help at least some legacy automakers get over the hump to the post-ICE world may make it less of a “Tesla killed our jobs” situation with less political cross-sectional area exposed.

Risk #2: Tesla production scaling outpaces the readiness of the general consumer to pivot to EVs. The partnership with Ford (and hopefully others) helps as it is critical that overall EV adoption not be limited by how terrible the fast charging experience is for non-Tesla customers.

As a long-term investor, the reason I follow day-to-day news is to monitor how longer-term risk/opportunities are affected by the latest actions. The Ford announcement fits solidly in that category.

I’ve been considering posting the more complete list of risks that I am keeping an eye on, to try to help foster a productive dialogue regarding the long term factors that impact Tesla’s business. Let me know if you think that would be useful; I am reticent to be dropped into care-bear category as a relatively new poster.

No worries on labeling.

Care bears out themselves pretty fast.

Welcome aboard.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nowadays you can just assume corruption; at the very least BBB (borderline bad behavior). Even Tesla at this point employs people and people can always be counted on to behave like people.

Thanks for proving my people point @Xepa777

 

[bkp_duke]

Currently in local Service Center for a HW2.5 to 3.0 upgrade (scheduled yesterday!)

This place is HOPPING busy with mid quarter deliveries.

Oh, and the new red is sexy AF!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Wait did I miss a catalyst for Tesla which makes you think we will move like Nvidia?

Most people think Nvidia is 2 years behind Tsla and this is their 2020 tsla moment.

It could be both!

I basically said I didn't see a catalyst. What I see is NVDA leading the way out of the bear market. Microsoft and Google have been close behind and I think more will follow, including Tesla. Especially with many feeling like they missed the opportunity with NVDA and start looking around at who's next in the AI world. Some will look at Tesla and more will jump on as they begin to see where Tesla is at with FSD.

Optimus purposefully omitted from the discussion because hardly anyone is going to value Optimus right now.

 

[MartinAustin]

Yeah, I agree. I think there probably is some kind of licensing arrangement but I won't mind at all if Ford drivers simply pay for what they use.

It could end up being like bank ATMs. Example: at Tesla Superchargers, Tesla drivers pay the basic rate/kWh and non-Tesla drivers pay an additional $0.01/kWh. If Ford pays to deploy its own Superchargers (which I'm sure it will... with parts from Tesla, to start), Tesla+Aptera drivers pay the $0.01/kWh extra but Ford drivers pay their basic rate.