Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

While I agree this deal is a net positive, it also cuts the other way.

What I mean is Tesla owners will also be getting exposed to the latest offerings from competitors. I can see a bored Tesla owner drifting over to compare notes on Tesla alternatives, and chatting with owners about their experiences and impressions. Right now, I think Tesla’s hold their own quite well, but the competition is not resting. The upside is Tesla will see ongoing pressure to maintain its engineering and design edge, and not just rest on its laurels.

I can attest to this. A friend of mine who has been driving Leafs for over 7 years now, leased an Ariya SUV last week. I took it out for a spin and was very impressed with the riding comfort, quietness, smoothness and handling. Quite spacious too. The back hatch has a very similar styling to Model Y.

If it had access to Tesla Superchargers, I would be very tempted. But then for me Tesla's Autopilot is a huge plus. On the other hand, my wife hates Autopilot and the rough ride of my Model Y, and so she would jump into an Ariya if it had Supercharger access.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Fully agree - queuing theory solves lots of problems. The number of times I've sweated buckets over some fancy dynamic system simulation model only to produce a result I could have gotten with queuing theory in a fraction of the time. (Proves I'm dumb. At least I recognise that and don't trade my TSLA shares, simply HODL).

For a similar reason a lot of the big gaps in the network in the in-between lands can be filled with 4-stall or 2-stall units. They certainly don't need to be 8-stall (etc) builds. And this is where they can be easier to build out even in a weak grid because genuinely one can take some storage and solar and plonk it in co-located in a lot of these places. I accept that the utilisation fraction will be low and so this is not yet the priority, but in time it will be more important. This might be a reason to build out skinny Megapacks with the central solar inverters also pre-plumbed, and hook straight in to 10-acres of solar (or so). Should be fun trying to home in on the correct design solution(s) to suit that type of site(s).

To my eyes Supercharger manufacturing needs to roughly double in volume - there is a lot of territory to build out. Recently I've been driving through southeast Europe (again) and as soon as one goes beyond Nis (Serbia) the Tesla count zeroes. On the other hand the Porsche and Mercedes and BMW count does not. It is not until one gets down to Patras/Athens (Greece) that the Tesla count starts to climb. People down here are not cash poor as one can observe just by looking at the cars on the road, but they are completely charger-starved. Same goes for a lot of the world.

So, lots more pre-fabbed 4-slot units to as a minimum build out the global transport corridors please.

View attachment 945865

Hmm... Queue Theory - I think fewer sites with 8 stalls might be better - especially on holiday routes. Often little use and then a lot of people for a few days a year - but the peak still needs to be served. I sometimes plan out routes to Morocco, Black Sea, Turkey, Northern Norway/Sweden/Finland and Wales for curiosity and potential future travel. It's entirely doable* now as you seemed to have described but could do with improvement. I just think 4 connectors/site is too few - especially for Christmas holidays.

*perhaps not Wales - bit of a charging desert (/s).

 

[Electroman]

Looks like this is already stewing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667577710225379329

Although going by the poll numbers it is clear most of them prefer NACS, but if you look at the replies in that forum thread (not Twitter thread), you will see a majority of them say - screw Tesla, lets stay the CCS course.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Fully agree - queuing theory solves lots of problems. The number of times I've sweated buckets over some fancy dynamic system simulation model only to produce a result I could have gotten with queuing theory in a fraction of the time. (Proves I'm dumb. At least I recognise that and don't trade my TSLA shares, simply HODL).

For a similar reason a lot of the big gaps in the network in the in-between lands can be filled with 4-stall or 2-stall units. They certainly don't need to be 8-stall (etc) builds. And this is where they can be easier to build out even in a weak grid because genuinely one can take some storage and solar and plonk it in co-located in a lot of these places. I accept that the utilisation fraction will be low and so this is not yet the priority, but in time it will be more important. This might be a reason to build out skinny Megapacks with the central solar inverters also pre-plumbed, and hook straight in to 10-acres of solar (or so). Should be fun trying to home in on the correct design solution(s) to suit that type of site(s).

To my eyes Supercharger manufacturing needs to roughly double in volume - there is a lot of territory to build out. Recently I've been driving through southeast Europe (again) and as soon as one goes beyond Nis (Serbia) the Tesla count zeroes. On the other hand the Porsche and Mercedes and BMW count does not. It is not until one gets down to Patras/Athens (Greece) that the Tesla count starts to climb. People down here are not cash poor as one can observe just by looking at the cars on the road, but they are completely charger-starved. Same goes for a lot of the world.

So, lots more pre-fabbed 4-slot units to as a minimum build out the global transport corridors please.

View attachment 945865

Well, if you head towards Greece there's a gap. But there's Sofia, Plovdiv and Edirne that connects to Istanbul.
Uh, not zero beyond Nis.

 

[petit_bateau]

Well, if you head towards Greece there's a gap. But there's Sofia, Plovdiv and Edirne that connects to Istanbul.
Uh, not zero beyond Nis.

There's nowt between Nis and Athens.

And there are a lot of folk from up north who like to go to Greece (and vice versa).

 

[Snerruc]

Weekend trading related topic, anyone on TD Ameritrade dreading the shift to Schwab, or have already experienced it? I've been seeing a number of complaints about the shift, I'm still on TD because I also have Thinkorswim.

I’ve been switched. It was transparent, and there was plenty of communication from Schwab. I don’t like their app as well, but that’s small potatoes.

 

[Max Plaid]

Waymo just killed a dog:

Autonomous Waymo car runs over dog in San Francisco

The vehicle was in autonomous mode with a safety driver present in a 25 mph zone.

arstechnica.com

Relevant when comparing performance of FSD. Bizzarely it even had a safety driver. clearly not that good a driver methinks.

 

[winfield100]

Weekend trading related topic, anyone on TD Ameritrade dreading the shift to Schwab, or have already experienced it? I've been seeing a number of complaints about the shift, I'm still on TD because I also have Thinkorswim.

@JRP3
been with Schwab probably 40 years now. no complaints

 

[FastEddieB]

I’ve been switched. It was transparent, and there was plenty of communication from Schwab. I don’t like their app as well, but that’s small potatoes.

I have an Ameritrade account. The website appears identical, as does my most recent mail from them.

Can I expect a change at some point, or it the switch really that transparent?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I agreed with you except for this one. They ALL can win, because they are all competing with ICE rather than BEV's, in this situation. Tesla will lose market share of BEV, but gain market share of all vehicles. That is the point for both Ford and GM in this context.

Everyone wins!! ...except ICE

Short to medium term I agree with you v ICE and v the alternative of using Electrify America et. al., but having your customers effectively visit a competitors dealership (i.e. see Teslas at the charging station and look them up online) on a regular basis is a losing strategy in the long run IMO unless you have a better offering...which is nigh on impossible for most segments.

 

[Snerruc]

I have an Ameritrade account. The website appears identical, as does my most recent mail from them.

Can I expect a change at some point, or it the switch really that transparent?

You will get all kinds of communication fromSchwab and account down to the change. Schwab app will activate and TDwillstop. Download Schwab app now. Sign in with your TD. Credentials.

 

[insaneoctane]

... As Cramer says...

Click....

 

[insaneoctane]

They remain profitable by selling the electrons for $.35-.50/kw which is roughly in line with PG&E residential rates.

I have some friends who live in areas that don’t have PG&E service, and for them supercharger rates are about 5X their residential rates.

I don’t usually see the rates, as our car has the free unlimited; but I hear a lot of whining from friends.

I do hope tesla gets this all sorted out in time for my cybertruck and I’d love to see Tesla break the back of PG&E and disrupt the entire California grid. It’s overdue.

In this previous post, an example of $14,000/month just in "demand charges" for an 8 stall Supercharger. That is on top of the $/kWh that the grid charges. Those charges, IMO, make the required time for Tesla to realize an ROI quite a bit longer. I'd suggest many of Tesla's Superchargers (at least in California) still haven't turned positive ROI yet. This opinion of mine is what makes me wince as I swallow the latest speculation that Ford/GM didn't have to offer much for their SC access because....the mission. I am interested in someone better at estimating than I am to share an estimated capital investment cost for the current Supercharger network.

BTW, I am not saying I am against the opening of the Supercharger network, I'm just trying to understand if Tesla is sold themselves short in the process.

 

[Fairchild]

I have an Ameritrade account. The website appears identical, as does my most recent mail from them.

Can I expect a change at some point, or it the switch really that transparent?

They are gradually shifting customers to SCHWAB. I have been told that because I am a heavy trader, I will be transferred in November.
My friend say the transfer was seamless.

 

[2daMoon]

Coming soon to a convenience store near you... Tesla Test Drives

​

Someone mentioned this to me and I did a quick search to see for myself. Found confirmation on Reddit.

Buc-ee's has a plethora of Tesla models on site at what is likely their nearest location to GigaTexas, and, what appears to be an automated test drive process. The report was that there is a sign at each entrance and you just point the cell phone camera at the code and it initiates the registration process to sign up for a test drive.

I don't recall other OEM's selling cars like this.

Bullish?
​

 

[2daMoon]

In this previous post, an example of $14,000/month just in "demand charges" for an 8 stall Supercharger. That is on top of the $/kWh that the grid charges. Those charges, IMO, make the required time for Tesla to realize an ROI quite a bit longer. I'd suggest many of Tesla's Superchargers (at least in California) still haven't turned positive ROI yet. This opinion of mine is what makes me wince as I swallow the latest speculation that Ford/GM didn't have to offer much for their SC access because....the mission. I am interested in someone better at estimating than I am to share an estimated capital investment cost for the current Supercharger network.

BTW, I am not saying I am against the opening of the Supercharger network, I'm just trying to understand if Tesla is sold themselves short in the process.

Tesla will be getting more usage of the SC Network, therefore more revenue to offset the cost you presented.

Isn't this better than they would have done if the others hadn't adopted the NACS?

This should reduce the time to ROI if there are more users, right?

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla will be getting more usage of the SC Network, therefore more revenue to offset the cost you presented.
Isn't this better than they would have done if the others hadn't adopted the NACS?
This should reduce the time to ROI if there are more users, right?

Possibly. More usage can also increase demand charges. It's not simple. I know I'm supposed to just trust that Tesla figured this all out, I'm just sharing the difficulty I'm having....

 

[dhanson865]

I have an Ameritrade account. The website appears identical, as does my most recent mail from them.

Can I expect a change at some point, or it the switch really that transparent?

Depends on what kind of account you have.

I had 4 accounts and they were very communicative about the switch for my accounts (or so it seemed).

I did all the prep for the switch and they moved 3 accounts over and 1 stayed behind.

No communication about the 1 account that stayed behind. I had to call both companies multiple times to find out why the 4th account didn't transfer and get access to see the stock there. I still have no word from either company one when the 4th account will move (if ever).

Maybe I'm stuck with a split broker situation until I retire and transfer the funds out of that account into one of my other accounts.

 

[GLDYLX]

Weekend trading related topic, anyone on TD Ameritrade dreading the shift to Schwab, or have already experienced it? I've been seeing a number of complaints about the shift, I'm still on TD because I also have Thinkorswim.

No problems here.

Opened TD account in 2012 to hold my TSLA separate from my other accounts (post-financial-meltdown paranoia), opened Schwab account in 2021 to get a SBLOC (AKA PAL), since TD wouldn't talk to me about it (Schwab acquisition already under way, so I guess they didn't want to bother), transfers from TD to Schwab were easy (one to open account, one to prevent a margin call, which missed by 1.5 hours, but resolution was just a phone call), remainder of shares transferred over Memorial Day weekend, which went into a new, non-pledged account, after numerous informational e-mails.

How's THAT for a run-on sentence?!

I never used ThinkorSwim, but I've never had any problems with TD, other than not being able to get a SBLOC through them, which turned out to be a good thing, I think. TD history is archived through Schwab in theory, but I haven't explored that yet.

Schwab has been very good at answering/returning/following up on the phone (I've never been on hold for more than a few seconds). My PAL rep is awesome; never trying to get me to diversify AND he's a TSLA HODLer.

Opening a Schwab account in preparation for the transfer is recommended in the info-e-mails, so maybe that makes things go smoother for those new to Schwab... I have no complaints.

HTH and Happy Sunday!

 

[bkp_duke]

Although going by the poll numbers it is clear most of them prefer NACS, but if you look at the replies in that forum thread (not Twitter thread), you will see a majority of them say - screw Tesla, lets stay the CCS course.

View attachment 945901

Yeah, there are some REAL HATERS in that comments section.