Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Were screwed. VW says vehicle making a Renaissance.

Volkswagen Leader Mueller Foresees A Diesel Renaissance

What VW really means...…"We have no way of making mass EV's without going into bankruptcy for the next 5-10 years or more. "

It is going to be so ugly for legacy Auto makers when Model Y is launched next fall.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well I have to disagree here. People seem to be in more of a hurry and generally more pissed off.
Now maybe the zen like state I am in(coupled with occasional bouts of G-force giddiness) when I drive my MS will change people....but I doubt it.

No, people really are becoming more relaxed and chiller on their Teslas. I know several people who’ve expressed a change in their driving habits and how they feel about driving.

I’ve always been pretty chill about driving but even I’ve entered a new state of, ‘there’s no need to rush’.

 

[Nocturnal]

What VW really means...…"We have no way of making mass EV's without going into bankruptcy for the next 5-10 years or more. "

It is going to be so ugly for legacy Auto makers when Model Y is launched next fall.

And also "if we don't do EVs we will go bankrupt in 10 years as well"

+ the Tesla pickup, + Rivian etc. Land Rover should be terrified of Rivian. Somebody will do a delivery (like a Sprinter Van) EV sooner or later. That one project with the small 3 wheeled EV for small deliveries looks really promising.

No, people really are becoming more relaxed and chiller on their Teslas. I know several people who’ve expressed a change in their driving habits and how they feel about driving.

I’ve always been pretty chill about driving but even I’ve entered a new state of, ‘there’s no need to rush’.

Yes. On a recent trip it was super cold so I had to take an extra long charging stop. I started to get stressed out, but then said to myself "wait, you are on vacation, go in and have an Irish coffee while you wait for the car to charge". It was relaxing. Not to mention that autopilot makes the whole thing easier and less tiresome.

It really does help you get out of the stressful mindset of "we are making good time, I don't want to stop to pee".

 

[DocZ]

It is definitely bizarre. I can't understand how they think that Waymo could scale their FSD up faster than Tesla can. Millions of FSD capable cars on the road by the time Waymo starts rolling cars out.

I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

 

[dhrivnak]

I would say 335 miles of range would be sufficient for more like 99% of people.

Dan

The reason for extra range is towing a camper or toy hauling. Towing easily cuts effective range in half and there are MANY people with a camper, boat or other toy.

 

[pnungesser]

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense and is a great way to estimate. Here are just a few initial thoughts :

-Seawater has a density of approximately 64 lbs/CF.
-You would want to know if they also took on bunkers while in port. I'm not familiar with the port to know if this is typical there
-Ships can and will make draft adjustments by filling/draining ballast tanks. This is typically just to level the ship, but could be another source of error.

Good points. Thanks

 

[Nocturnal]

Chinese electric sports car Qiantu K50 by Mullen coming to US roads next year

WTF are they thinking? It looks kinda cool, but those performance numbers?

• With twin electric motors drawing power from a lithium-ion battery pack, the K50 can punch out 430 horsepower and 560 pound-feet of torque.

• It can launch from 0 to 60 in just 4.3 seconds, with an electronically limited top speed of 112 mph.

• The U.S. version of the K50 is expected to be priced around $149,000 when it reaches showrooms next year.

Faster than a fighter jet: The $2.5 million Pininfarina Battista electric hypercar debuts in New York

Supposedly comparable to a Gen 2 Roadster, but at a price that is 10x higher.

 

[scaesare]

Nothing, it's probably the same.

Indeed.

And several examinations (Jack Rickard's most recently) reveal that the energy increase per cell almost exactly correlates to the volume increase.

 

[1101011]

Were screwed. VW says vehicle making a Renaissance.

Volkswagen Leader Mueller Foresees A Diesel Renaissance

This article is dated March 6th. Perhaps mitigating, it seems to me that he has since said that the company has to (eventually) move to EV....

 

[Nocturnal]

I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

Do you think the competitors are really that much farther along though?

 

[M3Rider]

My 2 Powerwalls have been on order over a year. Here in California we have not only the federal 30% tax incentive but we also have the SGIP program. My net price on two power walls including install should be around $8k.

Why do people install powerwalls?
Is it to disconnect from the grid completely and not pay monthly connection charges or to prevent once in a blue moon 30 min power outage?
Or this is for commercial applications like growing weed, so you don't pay peak power rates?
I don't see how I can justify paying $8k for a powerwall.

If Elon's looking to squeeze the shorts, he's gonna wait until the last hour of trading or after hours to disclose agreement/settlement with SEC.

I guess the investment community has zero faith in Tesla FSD. Pretty amazing that there's no buying pressure considering Tesla market cap and the valuation of Waymo(and Lyft/Uber to an extent).

I think it is not zero faith, we have a good idea already of what it will be.
They will say "we are close and we estimate it will take us 1-2 years to get to the point where we are better than a human".
Whatever demo they show will be "sandboxed" to a degree, the same thing that Waymo and others can show you - whether geo-fenced or other-fenced, doesn't matter what it is until you can show it works everywhere.
So, how are investors to know/believe that 1-2 years is a correct and final estimate?
The demo may show though that Tesla is at least on par with others and cause some less significant SP adjustment.

 

[NicoV]

started to get stressed out, but then said to myself "wait, you are on vacation, go in and have an Irish coffee while you wait for the car to charge".

When FSD is a reality you can even have 2 Irish coffees.

 

[DocZ]

Do you think the competitors are really that much farther along though?

I don’t, I think each strategy has its pros and cons. But for example Elon’s claim of “we have more data than anyone” isn’t really valid to me because all that data has not translated to a truly compelling product offering. Even WITH all that data....it’s still a pretty basic system that can kill you if you’re not careful. So I just don’t see this FSD narrative that he’s pushing. To me that’s unlikely to change even after the investor day on autopilot because I’m sure they’ll show off some previously recorded or pre mapped demo and go into future hypotheticals without actual real world tangible effects.

 

[Nocturnal]

Why do people install powerwalls?
Is it to disconnect from the grid completely and not pay monthly connection charges or to prevent once in a blue moon 30 min power outage?
Or this is for commercial applications like growing weed, so you don't pay peak power rates?
I don't see how I can justify paying $8k for a powerwall.

Selling back to the grid is less profitable than using your own power in many places.

 

[Skryll]

No, people really are becoming more relaxed and chiller on their Teslas. I know several people who’ve expressed a change in their driving habits and how they feel about driving.

I’ve always been pretty chill about driving but even I’ve entered a new state of, ‘there’s no need to rush’.

For me it's actually going in two different directions:

I am more chill in traffic, where there are no opportunities to have fun anyways, with AP on my side I leave more space in front of me than I used to and just manage that in the context of other peoples expectations, i.e. shorten distance to 4 if somebody behind me doesn't get why I leave the space, that is usually a distance they can tolerate without feeling the need to do dumb inefficient moves. Sometimes less, sometimes more. If I see a gap that I can lay a trajectory through I quickly take over and then fall back into AP once things are boring again.

But at the same time I am more aggressive in exhibiting and taking the EV advantage on surface roads, when the light turns green to make sure I get a lane with no laggy legacy gas car in front of me at the next light. Also love the cornering of the Model 3 there. Comes at the cost of tires, but so much fun... still keeping safety for myself and others priority one, but fun comes right after that.

 

[Navin]

Would like to see a close near the highs of the day

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don’t, I think each strategy has its pros and cons. But for example Elon’s claim of “we have more data than anyone” isn’t really valid to me because all that data has not translated to a truly compelling product offering. Even WITH all that data....it’s still a pretty basic system that can kill you if you’re not careful. So I just don’t see this FSD narrative that he’s pushing. To me that’s unlikely to change even after the investor day on autopilot because I’m sure they’ll show off some previously recorded or pre mapped demo and go into future hypotheticals without actual real world tangible effects.

Your comparing current Autopilot software with unseen FSD software that is going to be running/demonstrated on Hardware 3.0. No one outside of Tesla's FSD team knows what the system is capable of and/or how far along or how close they are to feature complete. The only guidance we've been given is feature complete in 8 months.

Just to add on to this. Autopilot software and FSD software suites have likely been completely forked, probably a while ago, with the FSD team pushing the FSD software. That's why what we see on Monday could exponentially more impressive than current Autopilot....even with the latest NoA and Adv Summon features.

 

[MP3Mike]

Why do people install powerwalls?
Is it to disconnect from the grid completely and not pay monthly connection charges or to prevent once in a blue moon 30 min power outage?
Or this is for commercial applications like growing weed, so you don't pay peak power rates?
I don't see how I can justify paying $8k for a powerwall.

He was getting two Powerwalls for $8k. The general uses are:

• Time-shifting to pay off-peak rates for the power even if you use it during peak times.
• To have power, and keep your solar up, even when the grid goes down.
• To keep your excess solar production for yourself instead of essentially giving it to the power company for free.

 

[Skryll]

Selling back to the grid is less profitable than using your own power in many places.

With a net-metering plan and time of use plan, selling back to the grid and high price and pulling out at low price at night is the winning combination. Also to compensate for feast+famine, i.e. January generating 20kWh/day compared to May 60kWh/day. The only moment you really miss out is if over the year you produced more than you consumed, then they screw you and call it giving you wholesale pricing instead of retail, meaning they charge/credit $0.13 at night, $0.25 at day, $0.45 at peak all year, but leftovers at the end of the year are suddenly named wholesale pricing and pay out only $0.03 per kWh. So you try to kind of break even over the year without having to worry about the difference in monthly production over the year. Its a really sweet deal really.

 

[Skryll]

He was getting two Powerwalls for $8k. The general uses are:

• Time-shifting to pay off-peak rates for the power even if you use it during peak times.
• To have power, and keep your solar up, even when the grid goes down.
• To keep your excess solar production for yourself instead of essentially giving it to the power company for free.

Two power walls plus install often requires upgrading main and so the total project cost is often about $21k for two power walls. Basically pays for itself in 10 years which is also when the warranty expires. Thats what made me say 'can't do this till the stock hits $420'.