Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Waymo is riding on the success that is Google, the company so clever that it is hard do describe in one sentence.

Easy. The company where you are the product.

 

[Pras]

On SEC, one point I am guessing is that in the revised settlement, Elon may agree to less or no (material) Tesla related tweeting during the trading hours and have full freedom to do so during off hours.

 

[KSilver2000]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

Probably if you’ve held steadfastly over the past few years. But, TSLA has been my best stock over the years for making money on swing trades. One of the most tradable in my portfolio. Musk’s $420 tweet definitely helped also.

 

[KarenRei]

Something from Marketwatch ...

Tesla earnings: The big question is how big is the quarterly loss

Wall Street will likely be "very focused" on quarterly margins, Tesla's quarter-on-quarter cash burn, and the company's ability to reach its 2019 shipment guidance, Nelson said.

Earnings: Analysts at FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 87 cents a share. That would compare with an adjusted loss of $3.35 a share in the first quarter of 2018 and a GAAP and an adjusted per-share profit in the two previous quarters.

Revenue: The analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting quarterly revenue of $5.5 billion, up from $3.4 billion in the year-ago quarter. The Estimize forecast is for $6.1 billion.​

What does 87 cents per share equate to in terms of dollars? Is just 0,87 times shares outstanding (172720000) = $150M loss?

 

[MP3Mike]

Busy week coming up:
22nd: Autonomous Investor day (if dip then buy)
23rd: Deadline expires for redactions of the April 4th hearing transcript https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/7946295/united-states-securities-and-exchange-commission-v-musk/ Hopefully, transcript follows shortly thereafter
24th: Q1 report

You must have missed the "If no such Notice is filed, the transcript may be made remotely electronically available to the public without redaction after 90 calendar days"

So three months after the 23rd the transcript would be made available. (Assuming no redactions requests were made.)

 

[JRP3]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Trading around price movements has been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

I have neither.

 

[N5329K]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

With the occasional collaboration (but no collusion) with Tesla and Twitter, shorts have done OK now and then. I wish it weren’t so.
Robin

 

[Doggydogworld]

My personal hypothesis is that Tesla has rented temporary space for pre-tooling …
So that when the building is ready, they can take down the lines and transfer them, rather than having to build them all from scratch.

That's what Ford did with the Dearborn F-150 changeover. They ripped everything out of the factory (except the paint shop) and had MVBs rolling off the new line in six or seven weeks. Full scale 7k/week about a month later. And that's a highly automated line - Tesla says Shanghai final assembly will mostly copy GA4.

But maybe they'll just build everything in-situ.

Most likely.​

 

[Car In Ray]

Ok KarenRei <Car In Ray> IceLand (EyesLand) ... we get it ... and off to Ignore List

Wow, pronounced totally different, how could you.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, pronounced totally different, how could you.

I don't know, should I be.... honoured by this? Concerned? *boggle*

I don't think I'm important enough to deserve a parody account.

 

[AlMc]

I don't know, should I be.... honoured by this? Concerned? *boggle*

I don't think I'm important enough to deserve a parody account.

Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

 

[Cobbler]

Wow, pronounced totally different, how could you.

Are you Jake Fisher?

 

[oneday]

Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

Perhaps he/she *it* will try to imitate her intelligence and not just name/location. That would be great.

 

[M3Rider]

I don't know, should I be.... honoured by this? Concerned? *boggle*

I don't think I'm important enough to deserve a parody account.

Soon to be quoted by Chanos - Tesla's biggest bull , 'Car In Ray', said the Tesla is hopeless.

 

[X Fan]

Yes I know it's not what you asked for. It's usages that I can replicate. And they correlate to trips I've taken using a significant portion of my pack under those circumstances.

Do you have first hand data that contradicts this with your Tesla?


Yes, I know exactly how it behaves... I've been driving this Model S for 6 years now.

I'll point out, that in my earlier reply to you (that you've opted to not respond to), the issue of the significant impact the cold is in stop-and-go driving, despite the fact that you seem to have wanted to limit the conversation to just long highway trips.

I've got news for you: the weather doesn't care if you are road-tripping vs. multi-point daily driving.

That's the whole point of this discussion: more range is needed in the cold. If you want to try and make the argument that the impact is more for stop-n-go, then you are really just underscoring that it's an issue.

+1..I've been using Teslafi for 3 years now and have compiled a great data set of the locations I most commonly travel to.

I can analyze just about anything including high/low energy use between locations (have multiple points per SC from NC to FL and NC up to NY). Challenge to make a comparable analysis between fall, winter, summer, spring of course is wind direction, wind speed and temperature. In any event, winter temps in North Carolina are never as cold as Canadian winter temps but degradation is definitely an issue for me as well.

 

[VValleyEV]

With a net-metering plan and time of use plan, selling back to the grid and high price and pulling out at low price at night is the winning combination. Also to compensate for feast+famine, i.e. January generating 20kWh/day compared to May 60kWh/day. The only moment you really miss out is if over the year you produced more than you consumed, then they screw you and call it giving you wholesale pricing instead of retail, meaning they charge/credit $0.13 at night, $0.25 at day, $0.45 at peak all year, but leftovers at the end of the year are suddenly named wholesale pricing and pay out only $0.03 per kWh. So you try to kind of break even over the year without having to worry about the difference in monthly production over the year. Its a really sweet deal really.

Some power utilities are backing out of net metering, including those in my state of Arizona. I am still grandfathered in for a few years, after which they will be able to lower the rates used to reimburse me for generated solar power.

I understand why this appears to be a good thing to to the utilities, but question the incentives responsible for it. Instead of encouraging the power companies to invest in power storage, including batteries, they are encouraging homeowners like me to thumb their noses at the utilities and install our own private backup systems. I think this will make it more difficult for the power companies to smooth out their demand curves, and they won’t get much sympathy from me. Of course as I said maybe it really ain’t their fault, is the incentives put in place (or removed), but the utility lobbying likely had a lot to do with that.

 

[pnungesser]

Interesting estimate. Can it be known whether during the change in draft the ship was taking on fuel?

Otherwise the number is probably a pretty good upper limit.

PS. Without wanting to gloat too much, I will just redo the estimated weight change in metric units with the above assumptions:
199.94m x 32.26m x 1.3m x 0.9 x 1k kg / m^3 = 7.5M kg. The average exported Model 3 probably weighs 1.77k kg, for a weight change equivalent to 7.5M/1.77k, i.e. just under 4.3k Model 3s.
PPS. With salt water having a higher density that fresh water, the displacement corresponds to a greater weight taken on board, about 3%.

Pretty close to my calculations. I should have bothered to convert the density to sea water, but a spent my career as a water engineer and I knew the density on fresh water in my head. Also I was getting tired of trying to be too accurate with some of my estimates that I knew were just educated guesses. The biggest unknowns are the possibility of loading other vehicles than M3's and how much fuel they may have loaded.

 

[EVNow]

What does 87 cents per share equate to in terms of dollars? Is just 0,87 times shares outstanding (172720000) = $150M loss?

Yes - except I'm not sure about the actual outstanding shares. Is that from their Q4 report ? Then there is the diluted/undiluted numbers too - we don't know what that will be in the Q1 report.

But, roughly $150M loss (non-GAAP).

 

[kyzhk]

Waymo is riding on the success that is Google, the company so clever that it is hard to describe in one sentence.

And google has a consistent record of trashing products. Google+, google glass, inbox, google fiber. I think at some point in the future I can add waymo to the list. It seems its in their DNA not being able to really commit because these are just all side projects to their core ads business.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't know, should I be.... honoured by this? Concerned? *boggle*

I don't think I'm important enough to deserve a parody account.

At least they didn't name themselves "bored KarenRai".