2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I'm filled with hopium that the court decision posted yesterday bears a veritable cornucopia of fruit toward nixing naked nepotism between MMs, banks, and the shortiez.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'm filled with hopium that the court decision posted yesterday bears a veritable cornucopia of fruit toward nixing naked nepotism between MMs, banks, and the shortiez.
I just listened to the call.
1. Didn’t seem as bad as what some made it out to be. I just think the market is overreacting as usual. I’m taking advantage of it.
2. CT ramping process makes sense. Sounds like it will be feature rich. That’s maybe where the production complexity concerns comes in more so than the exoskeleton? Either way, it will turn out fine. Elon was quite adamant that they will have it figured out and profitable in ~18 months.
3. WFH definitely is something that rubs Elon the wrong way. It sounded like he wanted to say much more against it. Glad he refrained. Not necessary. Tesla is just not a place where people should work if WFH is a priority. Simple as that. Personally I think WFH is fine IF the work still gets done well and I don’t feel bad if others in different roles are forced to come in. They chose that profession just like the WFH group. Every job has pluses and minuses. Just like I don’t have to run into a burning building like firefighters do. But even though I feel this way about it, I’d go into work at Tesla because that is what is expected. If I didn’t like it, I’d work somewhere else. Tesla should be free to put in rules they want just like workers are free to work somewhere else. Sure they may lose some talent but they don’t seem to be hurting with applicants.
4. Gen 3 - as long as there’s still progress on the platform at TX, makes sense to not build plant too quickly due to current macro. Even though the flip side is that the 25k car would be a big seller. I can see both sides to this.
5. Being prudent is not a bad thing in regards to macro/interest rates. Continuing like nothing is wrong is what got GM/Chrysler in trouble before and required bailouts. Nothing would be worse for the mission than Tesla needing a bailout for survival.
1. Didn’t seem as bad as what some made it out to be. I just think the market is overreacting as usual. I’m taking advantage of it.
2. CT ramping process makes sense. Sounds like it will be feature rich. That’s maybe where the production complexity concerns comes in more so than the exoskeleton? Either way, it will turn out fine. Elon was quite adamant that they will have it figured out and profitable in ~18 months.
3. WFH definitely is something that rubs Elon the wrong way. It sounded like he wanted to say much more against it. Glad he refrained. Not necessary. Tesla is just not a place where people should work if WFH is a priority. Simple as that. Personally I think WFH is fine IF the work still gets done well and I don’t feel bad if others in different roles are forced to come in. They chose that profession just like the WFH group. Every job has pluses and minuses. Just like I don’t have to run into a burning building like firefighters do. But even though I feel this way about it, I’d go into work at Tesla because that is what is expected. If I didn’t like it, I’d work somewhere else. Tesla should be free to put in rules they want just like workers are free to work somewhere else. Sure they may lose some talent but they don’t seem to be hurting with applicants.
4. Gen 3 - as long as there’s still progress on the platform at TX, makes sense to not build plant too quickly due to current macro. Even though the flip side is that the 25k car would be a big seller. I can see both sides to this.
5. Being prudent is not a bad thing in regards to macro/interest rates. Continuing like nothing is wrong is what got GM/Chrysler in trouble before and required bailouts. Nothing would be worse for the mission than Tesla needing a bailout for survival.
Krugerrand
Meow
I do not share your optimism. But I would welcome some ethical correction on this topic.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Hopium, being a pseudo-drug, should indicate my post as being more like ramblings of a madman than optimism.
But, I'll take this sort of change any way it comes.
X Fan
Active Member
FWIW: The fear of banx. Is well overblown.
By the time market forces was at a point to “kill“ Tesla just about very other car company on the planet would be bankrupt; plus, given the job creators that auto companies continue to be, government intervention/support would in place.
Alternate uptick rule in effect now through tomorrow.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Alternate Uptick Rule triggered for TSLA at 14:31 ET (down >10% since previous Close)
Short sales now accepted only on downticks. Rule in effect for the rest of today, and tomorrow's session until 16:00 hrs ET (not in effect during After-hrs session tomorrow).
As always, TSLA Options Market Makers have an SEC-mandated exemption to the Uptick Rule which allows them to continue short selling "to remain delta-neutral" when they purchase a Put contract at below the current "National Clearing Price". So don't be surprised if support doesn't materialize in force. Options volume outweighs equities by ~10x
Short sales now accepted only on downticks. Rule in effect for the rest of today, and tomorrow's session until 16:00 hrs ET (not in effect during After-hrs session tomorrow).
As always, TSLA Options Market Makers have an SEC-mandated exemption to the Uptick Rule which allows them to continue short selling "to remain delta-neutral" when they purchase a Put contract at below the current "National Clearing Price". So don't be surprised if support doesn't materialize in force. Options volume outweighs equities by ~10x
Last edited:
It will also have to have a hatch instead of a trunk, so lots of people will _not_ be cross-shopping with Model 3, they'll be cross-shopping with other makes.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Model Y vs Model 3 , OMG one has a hatch and one has a trunk. Guess what, I and others cross shop these two.
Add a new compact Tesla to the mix and I'll be cross shopping all 3.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
The decision to delay Giga Mexico and gently ramp Berlin and Austin is surprising to me. Only a couple of quarters ago the guidance was that production growth would continue at maximum speed. I think Elon had said something like "pedal to the metal, rain or shine". Why such a major change of direction now? Tesla also has even more liquidity now than when he said that. Further, if affordability is the primary challenge, wouldn't that increase the importance of Gen 3 production in Monterrey?
Thanks for posting...I read everything posted here from last night and today and after listening to this recording I don't understand what all the fuss was about. Besides the concerns of the high interest rate environment it seems they are making progress on everything important for long term success. I see that the stock is way down today but now I am thinking this is a great buying opportunity and not a reason to panic.
To me a lot hinges on the CT pricing. They talked about how difficult ramping will be but they also seem to genuinely believe this a great vehicle with all the "bells and whistles". My concern is the lack of any discussion on why they went with this radical design to begin with (lower costs, better specs, etc.). If it comes in just as heavy and expensive as an F150 then I could see issues selling them in huge volumes. However, if they come in anywhere close to the original specs and pricing I believe the truck could be a huge hit...assuming they still have good profit margins.
The competition isn't other EV trucks, but all Trucks. In order to pull people away from what they know, the CT will need to have an amazing value (specs compared to price).
just a random thought-- Mr. Musk's ability to forecast macro econ isn't great... case in point, it was only 15-18 months ago that he was spending money on the bird acquisition (at a premium) and the backdrop changed quickly in the ensuing months.
GFC scarred many people, and that's always going to be there... and rates are a big pain in the butt, but I don't know if he can forecast better than anyone else.
GFC scarred many people, and that's always going to be there... and rates are a big pain in the butt, but I don't know if he can forecast better than anyone else.
X Fan
Active Member
The 25k car is also gong to require significantly more investment in service centers/staff and another X factor of supercharger unit increases.
These two reasons contribute to Elon’s conservative approach given the need for additional batteries (plus challenging economics).
There is a case to invest in down times to come out ahead versus the competition though
Last edited:
Hi there, long time!
My take is that you have to have lead times on capitol (presses etc... Edit: or materials for that matter) and so the pause on Mexico is telling me that they're reserving cash for a rainy day is all. I don't think they'd make enough margin for several years on the $25K version - it's further out in time than a macro recovery. Double down on the R&D though.
Root cause is looking to me like a Big 3 macro mess with inventories risings every day for everyone - due to interest rates. The ship will pivot back once affordable for Tesla to expand IMHO.
Gen 3 is continuing, but first production is in Austin (which should speed up development) .
Optimize, then copy:
"Berlin and Austin factory, the current priority is actually maximize the output from our existing lines by laser-focusing on efficiency improvements. As always, maintaining a high quality and reducing per unit cost will be as critical as growing the production volume. For Mexico, we are working on infrastructure and factory design in parallel with the engineering development of the new production that we'll be manufacturing there. That's all I can share for that."
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, the intraday low on Aug 18, 2023 was $212.36. We may also receive support at the MA(200) which is currently at $214.19
There are other ways to look at the things said in the call.
Elon has gotten in a lot of trouble for being optimistic on timelines in the past. It is possible for some aspects he’s just being careful.
The interest rates are a real thing that affects affordability. So he’s being honest here.
As far as expanding Austin instead of Mexico, it’s my understanding the value of Mexico was the available labor force that Austin doesn’t have. If Optimus appears to be coming along faster than anticipated Mexico's labor supply is less relevant. Maybe given the economic situation that potentially slows things down they are taking a moment to see if labor supply is really as much of an issue as it was 6 months ago by waiting a bit to see where Optimus will be in a few months.
And as far as the cybertruck, I trust that they designed it to be easier to manufacture than anything they’ve made before. But when you have a new product built with new ideas a risk you run is that you’ve designed in a flaw that will require a recall. If you come out of the gates and make as many of them as physically possible and then it turns out something not fixable by a software update caused a recall it’s very expensive.
If you ramp at a reasonable speed and see how things go and as you gain confidence make more and more the financial risks are lessened.
I feel like anyone who thinks that call was a disaster hasn’t listened to many Tesla calls. Elon ranting about the local government being fascists comes to mind as one occasion that raised a lot of eyebrows. Frankly I chuckled when he said that. And whether he was right or wrong anyone who’s be paying attention for more than 5 minutes would know that while it wasn’t the best call it wasn’t a disaster either.
Keep calm and carry on.
Edit: something that’s been on my mind for awhile as well, especially with the new doubling down on export sanctions on nvda chips is there’s probably some level of discussion about whether or not Tesla will be allow to export Optimus. Including to Mexico. Maybe I’m silly but that seems like a concern that they wouldn’t speak about but is worth keeping in mind. If Optimus is as revolutionary to an economy as Musk is saying it would be a massive national security item.
Last edited:
If ASP was higher while demand is far more than production, the extra cushion in margin allows Tesla to go full speed ahead while still posting good financials. However demand dropped so ASP dropped to chase demand. This may even lead "full speed ahead" ramp vehicles to go 0% or - gross margins so they are deciding to scale back to optimize margins instead, hence laser focused on efficacy until demand comes back from rate drops or high focus on efficiency allow COGS to drop more in which they can lower ASP more to chase demand. Not exactly a bullish guide, but a responsible one.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
