Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

this does not make sense to me. If they really can run robotaxi, why sell those cars? Don't tell me about sharing the profit with consumers, those cars will be gobble up by big investors with deep pockets, ordinary Joes won't be able to buy them.

Yup.

You can bank on several PE firms running simulations post presentation.

 

[humbaba]

But then why would they sell you a car and gain 10k profit when they could use it for their network and make 50k/100k profit? Why let Joe Blow buy 20 SR+s when you still have demand for robo taxis?

Basically they need to take out economic profits from the model so that it's worth their while to EITHER sell you a car and receive part time revenue share or keep it themselves and use it for their fleet.

Yes, that was a good point I missed for my list of "they aren't taking this timeline seriously" bit.

The short answer is that they have to keep selling cars until they get approval in that market. Past that I guess we will find out.

 

[Nocturnal]

this does not make sense to me. If they really can run robotaxi, why sell those cars? Don't tell me about sharing the profit with consumers, those cars will be gobble up by big investors with deep pockets, ordinary Joes won't be able to buy them.

That's why the revenue share will be necessarily setup so that this model won't work. If they take 70% then it's not worthwhile for a big business to get into it.

Yes, that was a good point I missed for my list of "they aren't taking this timeline seriously" bit.

The short answer is that they have to keep selling cars until they get approval in that market. Past that I guess we will find out.

I wonder if this is my last Tesla. Of course if this happens in the near future my Tesla stock will let me retire to the Caribbean where I won't need to drive.

 

[Cloxxki]

Technically meeting the requirements of level 5 doesn’t necessarily make it safe to sleep while the car drives. The requirements have more to do with how and when it falls back to different systems than anything else.

But doesn't that then call for a person with a valid driver's license to be on board and sober?

 

[capster]

Is there a TL;DR version?

Tl;dr: Tesla FSD FTW

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wouldn't that functionality need to be delivered to customers, rather than demonstrated, in order to be recognized?

Tesla reoranized the AP vs. FSD feature matrix on Mar 2, 2019:

Autopilot Features*

• Auto Lane Change
• Autosteer
• Traffic-Aware Cruise Control
• Autopark
• Summon
• Navigate on Autopilot

* The strikethroughs represents features that were originally part of Enhanced Autopilot but now moved to Full Self-Driving Capability.

Tesla will therefor be able to recognize banked FSD revenue in Q1 for FSD features already shipped, most notably the new FSD functionality offered by NoA.

Cheers!

 

[mekberg]

I could see that at first (probably priced based on local demand), as long as it's significantly cheaper than Uber/Lyft, but it needs to be much less than that if widespread adoption is to occur.

Disagree. Most Uber/Lyft cars are subpar and uncomfortable. Drivers often questionable.

 

[Causalien]

Presentation on the AI is mind blowing.

I've been seeing the car driving better on each update.

Now I know why.

Fleet Data Collection -> Machine Learning -> Driving Like You Never Thought Possible.

Incredible.

And of course... the market doesn't get it.

True, it is the right approach to full autonomy. But I think Elon is under estimating the complexity of city street driving. So the time line should be 2x.
I actually thought about this before the event. Assuming FSD improves the rate it improves now, it'll take at least 2~3 years for it to reach something that is acceptable. 5 years before hands free driving.

 

[Cloxxki]

To change the emphasis a bit: he didn’t say they would seek to forbid people from driving their own cars. The expectation is that, at some point, people will demand that non-autonomous cars be banned from public roads. I’ve long held this belief as well.

For the 2-3 year thing, he was talking about Tesla-owned robotaxis not having steering wheels(and he mentioned customers can opt for that, if they wish)

That would make personal transportation like the next big brother. You could not go anywhere anonymously. Would one be allowed to sit in the back of the car with a ski mask on while another person paid for the ride?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Looks like Elon is betting the farm on self-driving. As far as owner cars in the Tesla fleet it was a bit confusing. So, I CAN purchase 3-4 cars and just run them on the Network? is that correct? Gross Revenue per car is approx 30K/Yr...is that what I heard?

Yeah, sounded like Elon was confused about the question. I’m not sure why. I mean, why wouldn’t you buy 10 cars and run them? Of course, eventually, the market would get saturated. In fact, that is what would happen. In the end, people looking to run fleets of Tesla cars would have to compete with people renting out their Tesla occasionally, and not expecting to make much money from it. So revenue per ride would drop.

 

[Nocturnal]

Disagree. Most Uber/Lyft cars are subpar and uncomfortable. Drivers often questionable.

Uber/Lyft is definitely hit or miss. Better than the average cab, but still. You are in a random car that may not be all that clean/nice. Driver is literally some random person, and let's be realistic, odds are not your most elite drivers.

 

[ZsoZso]

It was a very impressive presentation - on the technical front!
The problem is, Mr. Market (large enough investors to matter) have stopped believing what Elon says / presents years ago.
Everything he says is taken by a mountain sized pinch of salt, i.e. considered sizzle.
Market will not move until Tesla presents some steak.
In terms of autonomy, FSD, that is not happening before the end of this year even in Elon's most optimistic estimate.
If you want to translate Elon-time to real-time use whatever factor you are comfortable with, I'd guess around Q3 2020.

He scheduled this presentation to preempt the disappointment of Q1 results in investors.
My feeling: it may have worked for technically inclined retail investors like myself, but I doubt it worked on big institutions, so I expect the likes of T.Rowe to continue dumping their shares.

 

[Causalien]

Tesla's robotaxi will be super popular amongst the female population as it will be a safer option when trying to get home after midnight while passed out drunk on E.

So if it is deployed, I can see it immediately take at least 50% of the market share.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Looks like Elon is betting the farm on self-driving.

No, the farm is safe. But there *might* be a gold vein running through it.

 

[NicoV]

2. Most people do not understand what is being presented today and what it means. Show a video of a drunk man staggering to the back seat of a Tesla, slurring, "Terrsslaa, go home", and then the car safely takes him home... that will get the point across and sell cars.

I actually had this discussion with a collegue many years ago. He claimed that nobody is interested is self-driving cars. When I told him it meant the car would drive him safely home when drunk, he instantly changed his opinion. (TBH, that guy was maybe drinking a bit too much than what was good for him).

 

[S3XY]

Elon mentions "LA Traffic" as a more aggressive mode than Mad Max. I predicted that very thing this morning. Wish I'd posted it here for posterity.

Yes, you should have. Because now it sounds like it came from your posterior.

 

[Remus]

I could see that at first (probably priced based on local demand), as long as it's significantly cheaper than Uber/Lyft, but it needs to be much less than that if widespread adoption is to occur.

IF they can do it, which I am not sure, they can charge a HIGHER price than Uber/Lyft, just cater to KidsCab, picking up kids from school and drive them to after school activities. Young ladies would definitely prefer no driver cars.

 

[Nocturnal]

That would make personal transportation like the next big brother. You could not go anywhere anonymously. Would one be allowed to sit in the back of the car with a ski mask on while another person paid for the ride?

I sure as heck wouldn't allow it in my vehicle. Too much risk of damage etc.

If it makes you feel better, we aren't far off from public cameras etc. being able to track you wherever you go just by your face. On top of that you have your cell phone, credit card RFDs...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla reoranized the AP vs. FSD feature matrix on Mar 2, 2019:

Autopilot Features*

• Auto Lane Change
• Autosteer
• Traffic-Aware Cruise Control
• Autopark
• Summon
• Navigate on Autopilot

* The strikethroughs represents features that were originally part of Enhanced Autopilot but now moved to Full Self-Driving Capability.

Tesla will therefor be able to recognize banked FSD revenue in Q1 for FSD features already shipped, most notably the new FSD functionality offered by NoA.

Cheers!

Pretty sure that’d only be for new sales. They still recognize those features as EAP ones for those who bought that prior to the switch.

 

[EVNow]

I missed a portion of the presentation. Was there anything about how they can collect edge/similar data from the fleet ? I know they said the car does some compute and then sends the filtered data ...