Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

A few weeks ago I said I was disappointed with the low number of Teslas in Italy, but after three weeks in Milan I can say they are everywhere. It’s hard to not see one no matter where you look

I’m staying quite far away from the city center, but still see all the time, just today as I opened my window in the morning a Model 3 passed, followed by a Y

Yesterday I was there (in the center), walking on the sidewalk, a blue Model 3 was stuck in traffic. Half a minute later, I turn and a blue Model 3 is parked, and another one was turning right at the end of the road... I thought I was tripping, but there were three of them!

Milan is the most international of Italian cities, and more eager to innovate. Tesla sells a ton of cars in the greater Milan area. BTW, in the street near me in a rural area (at <200km from Milan), there where one model Y last year, but now there is another one and a 3. Slowly but surely.

 

[ggies07]

Ready.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782670894365810991

 

[DarkandStormy]

Show one post of mine to support it, POS.

Ah, the usual. When you can't discuss something on the merits, resort to insults.

My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek, btw. Guess that went over your head.

 

[Ellec]

Ready.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782670894365810991

Looking forward to the call as well!

 

[Krugerrand]

After too many years as an investor I have tried things that ‘should’ work and do work…until they don’t. The deeply analytic approaches are all fundamentally schochastic, so use historical patterns to forecast the future. Highly capable people have made fortunes, and many of the same people have lost them.

HODL at it is. Now called also works, and with enough diligence does so long term. Still, there are limits to that too, recognizing when fundamentals change is a critical component of this one.

On this thread we have a soupçon of all available approaches with reporting biased towards reporting success rather than failure.
I continue to learn from the thread. I miss quite a number of formerly prolific posters from whom I learned important things. I won’t list them all. We do need more seriously analytic perspective, more people well-versed in The Scientific Method, which is described cryptically by Mr Musk as First Principles.

Were we to have more serious analytics we might have:
1. More of the solid scientific education that enables understanding of such things as the Octovalve (it took an expert in fluid dynamics at Lawrence Livermore to explain that one correctly), an Inconel alloy from SpaceX that enabled Ludicrous ( took a metallurgist to explain that one in clear terms) , The GigaPress, practical use of which required several arcane specialties combined. And so on….

Not too long ago we had genuine expertise on these subjects and many more. Much of that has drifted elsewhere as we have here gradually drifted into populist ideology, speculations not based on fact and regular mod intervention due to such digressions.

Every one of us should know that there is widespread use of generative AI tools and highly capable FUD generated to help suppress critical thinking. All of us should be trying to better infirm ourselves of those risks.

We desperately need more well informed critical opinion that helps us inform our own views.

Whether Bull or Bear, superficiality is the enemy of knowledge. Diligent study and analysis leads to better decisions, including identifying what some investors call ‘trigger points’ which are specific events that generate immediate deeper review and analysis of historical metrics use to justify actions.

Here, we can all benefit when we retain such rigorous standards. When we ignore them we are just gambling without the benefit of ‘house’ information.

It’s tiresome. All of it. But in particular the liars, the short-sighted, the bad actors, the disingenuous and intellectually dishonest -

We’ve just engaged an ‘Alex’ who joined the forum this past Friday. It took me less than two posts to know he was at best dishonest. Under 30 posts for him to finally spill he’s short the stock - so he’s in a long term investor discussion thread, why? Oh, yeah - fill in a story people will fall for.

We’re still engaging a ‘Storm’ who’s been a troll since he first appeared here. He comes and goes as the SP oscillates and never takes any responsibility for any of the garbage he drops here - like the mistranslated tweet he posted twice, even after it was retranslated by a native speaker. Oh, right. He doesn’t have time to read every post. But he has time to drop crap here over and over again. He has time to argue about whether this is a long term investor thread or not with a decade+ member even after the thread owner says as much.

The ‘Q’ does the same thing. Drop in on perceived bad news, toss down a sentence or two, ask a question that’s self-explanatory or been answered here hundreds of times, leave when things aren’t actually half as bad.

The list is endless and it’s exhausting having to explain the simplest, most basic things about how Tesla and Elon operate, how the world works, how SP rarely ever reflects the true value of ANY company, and so on.

You should know by now, at your mature age , people suck. This thread is a mini version of how the human race moves through its existence. Despite a few bright spots, we are a disgusting species.

 

[Linkmeup]

"Sales of electric vehicles will “grow strongly” this year and could see battery and hybrid models account for one in five cars sold worldwide, according to a bullish forecast from the International Energy Agency"

and

“Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

IEA bullish on electric vehicle sales in 2024

Energy watchdog’s forecast runs counter to sentiment among many carmakers struggling to sell battery-run vehicles

www.ft.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Whose long term, mine or Tesla's?

Spoiler: Many words I omitted for brevity the first time

Holding is continually choosing to buy the stock at the price it is with the money you have. The line you quoted was from my analogy of taking lottery winnings and putting it all in TSLA at the ATH, which is functionality equivalent to holding at the ATH.

All I needed to do to be set for life (my long term) was not HODL (Tesla's long term) and just walk away. That would have been best (for me fiscally). Now I'm looking at 1/2 of triple of 1/4 of what the portfolio was, contemplating when/ if it might ever get there again and for why? Churn != return. Pain != gain.


If one knows a drop is coming, and is dealing with tax deferred accounts, then why hold? To be 'seen' as a good supporter? If in a taxed account there is a minimum drop required to breakeven on exit/reenter, but even then what were the investor's personal goals?

Sure, it will likely rise again, but 3 birds in the hand is better than one in the hand and 2 in the bush (that used to be in the hand). One should be willing to say to themselves, "this amount is enough." Unless, somehow, me owning a miniscule piece of a multi-hundred-billion dollar multinational corporation is the one thing keeping it from collapsing, in which case there is a point to it.

Well, yes. And no. Depends.

Money isn’t everything. It’s not even something a lot of the time. Many of the early investors did so because they believed in what needed to be done.

Never mind. It no longer matters to me that people understand. This moment in time right now is simply deja vu. I know how this movies ends.

You do you and whatever works for you because you’re the only one who has to live yourself when all is said and done.

Sincere best wishes to you.

 

[DarkandStormy]

It’s tiresome. All of it. But in particular the liars, the short-sighted, the bad actors, the disingenuous and intellectually dishonest -

We’ve just engaged an ‘Alex’ who joined the forum this past Friday. It took me less than two posts to know he was at best dishonest. Under 30 posts for him to finally spill he’s short the stock - so he’s in a long term investor discussion thread, why? Oh, yeah - fill in a story people will fall for.

We’re still engaging a ‘Storm’ who’s been a troll since he first appeared here. He comes and goes as the SP oscillates and never takes any responsibility for any of the garbage in drops here - like the mistranslated tweet he posted twice, even after it was retranslated by a native speaker. Oh, right. He doesn’t have time to read every post. But he has time to drop crap here over and over again. He has time to argue about whether this is a long term investor thread or not with a decade+ member even after the thread owner says as much.

The ‘Q’ does the same thing. Drop in on perceived bad news, toss down a sentence or two, ask a question that’s self-explanatory or been answered here hundreds of times, leave when things aren’t actually half as bad.

The list is endless and it’s exhausting having to explain the simplest, most basic things about how Tesla and Elon operate, how the world works, how SP rarely ever reflects the true value of ANY company, and so on.

You should know by now, at your mature age , people suck. This thread is a mini version of how the human race moves through its existence. Despite a few bright spots, we are a disgusting species.

You pointed out it was mistranslated and I noted fair enough.

Lol

Thanks for engaging in honest discussion!

 

[Krugerrand]

Ah, the usual. When you can't discuss something on the merits, resort to insults.

My post was mostly tongue-in-cheek, btw. Guess that went over your head.

Mostly, huh? What about the part of your tongue not in your cheek but hanging to your knees? What’s that part doing?

 

[Krugerrand]

You pointed out it was mistranslated and I noted fair enough.

Lol

Thanks for engaging in honest discussion!

You didn’t say it to me. You didn’t apologize for getting it wrong TWICE. You didn’t apologize to the forum members for being a jerk about it or for spamming it or for not waiting 30s to make sure it was correct information or for even checking yourself it was correct information the first time around - knowing full well that if it was correct it was important information for investors to know.

You are as dishonest as the day is long. You don’t fool me and never have. You’ll have noticed that in the past few days a number of other people have realized your true intentions for being here as well. The jig is up.

 

[Stretch2727]

"Sales of electric vehicles will “grow strongly” this year and could see battery and hybrid models account for one in five cars sold worldwide, according to a bullish forecast from the International Energy Agency"

and

“Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

IEA bullish on electric vehicle sales in 2024

Energy watchdog’s forecast runs counter to sentiment among many carmakers struggling to sell battery-run vehicles

www.ft.com

Here is the original report if you don't mind a long read. Lots of good charts showing penetration in different countries.

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4b9758a7-543c-4c6a-b749-f53deffc5c4b/GlobalEVOutlook2024.pdf

 

[Gigapress]

Right now I do not have an opinion on the Board's proposal to leave Delaware and reincorporate into Texas, because I don't understand the ramifications. Is there anyone who knows more about this topic?

 

[LST]

I just called them. They will create a "Confirmation of holding" for me now, it should be in the account in 2 days. They couldn't say for sure if I'll be able to vote with this confirmation, however, and if so, how.
Just to assure you guys: I will absolutely 100% vote PRO the comp package!

thx, I will reach out to them as well, and vote yes of course.

 

[Gigapress]

Can we stop feeding trolls so much please? On this website, block lists do not filter out replies to blocked posters.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla needs pricing power. Without pricing power it’s a commodity.
Relying purely on price reductions is a losing proposition.

For the stock to rally tesla needs pricing power and sales growth,
Elons should indicate how he plans to achieve that.

The cars must be so desirable that people are willing to pay more, not less,
Ala Apple iPhone.
They need to educate the consumer of how compelling its products are now.
Drawing attention to advantages in safety, maintenance cost, fueling cost, performance,
Convenience, quality , OTA updates , FSD, and the supercharging network.

Moreover, mention that a FSD capable car may increase in value
over time, hence the car’s resale value may well increase.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've watch the Loki report, actually read all of how the unk convinced himself to sell "a while back", and yet I'm still super excited for what's coming with Tesla+X combined AI. This is like the Romans invented bronze and we're about to surprise the *sugar* out of our enemies. Maybe not today, but it could, and likely soon if not. No not just FSD, everything including Tesla Speed as the Germans so coined the phrase.

We can all speculate on what life would have been like had we sold at the top. But if anyone sells today... especially after holding this whole time, man you're gonna set yourself up for some disappointment if wrong. Such short-term thinking, ya might as well hit the tables in Vegas after selling. But hey, I'd understand if it's you're only lifeline, maybe limit selling to what you need until later in the year. (Not advice)

I'm not quite like the others here. Not to brag, but will make the point that there is no pure method and I'm not a pure HODLer either. Pissed off many here with my trading in fact. I think they're jealous, and one even mentioned how they might actually sell all (a true long-standing hypocrite).

So... due to my addictive personality, I did sell some well over 300 and continued day-trading the swings with 5% of held shares ever since peak. First time millionaire, what the heck do you think my type would do - continue scraping by, after spending the last 10 years working contract jobs? Hell no, I paid off some debt (including our first Model 3 with the orange glass roof), bought some Powerwalls and Solar, bought back my own company, took on a few other property improvements, and shared some fun with new family just last Christmas. I'm quite happy today and love the challenge, love the future. It's a speed bump and even FSD makes those disappear in real life. Again, I share this because it really happened and there is no perfect method, not even pure HODL IMO.

I must add that much of my holding is due to what I know to be a much bigger disaster looming with our climate. "If you don't stand for something, you can fall for anything." Today, you'll find out if and where you stand.

It is possible that I buy a few more pending the ER. For sure not selling, and still currently at max capacity. Also, I won't respond if you're on my ignore list... so have fun with that. As a Power Squadron certified boater/charting/seamanship at age 12 in Tarpon Springs Fla, I love a good storm. See you on the other side.

 

[alexxs88]

So, you ARE a trader, posting in an investor forum.

Thanks for making this clear.

EDIT: To be crystalline, when a short seller comes to an investor forum to trash talk the investment, they are TROLLing, hoping to get people to sell so they may profit.

Posting in the "Be the House" thread (aka The Wheel) where the options folks discuss strategies might be more appropriate.

It's disappointing that some investors are not ready to engage in productive discussions regarding their investment. It's very naive to think that anyone would try to influence the market by going on a forum. On a stock that trades ~100m shares / day. When I was on your side of the investment I always searched for counter-arguments to my thesis.

My behaviour doesn't change. I buy/short a company when I think there's a delta between its value and the price at which it's trading on a particular day. I find it disappointing that this forum would actively take measures to make it more of an echo-chamber, don't see how that's productive in any way, but if that's the decision, I won't mind it. If you don't get "bears" in the discussion, then you'll never have a balance of arguments, as by definition any investor in a company has a positive outlook.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Moreover, mention that a FSD capable car may increase in value
over time, hence the car’s resale value may well increase.

That has never played well when Elon has said it, not from the media or even here from Tesla owners.

Everything else you said, I agree with.

 

[CitizenKane]

Tesla needs pricing power. Without pricing power it’s a commodity.
Relying purely on price reductions is a losing proposition.

For the stock to rally tesla needs pricing power and sales growth,
Elons should should indicate how he plans to achieve that.

The cars must be so desirable that people are willing to pay more, not less,
Ala Apple iPhone.
They need to educate the consumer of how compelling its products are now.
Drawing attention to advantages in safety, maintenance cost, fueling cost, performance,
Convenience, quality , OTA updates , FSD, and the supercharging network.

Moreover, mention that a FSD capable car may increase in value
over time, hence the car’s resale value may well increase.

Agreed except that I think the part about the car as an appreciating asset may be hard to sell in light of lowered FSD subscription prices and unless there is a pretty clear path to Robotaxi revenues and even more so revenue sharing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Right now I do not have an opinion on the Board's proposal to leave Delaware and reincorporate into Texas, because I don't understand the ramifications. Is there anyone who knows more about this topic?

@unk45 I believe knows some. He said he’d have preferred Nevada.

I believe there’s some corporate tax differences, litigation differences and probably an endless list of differences.

It’s beyond my ability to care one way or another at this point. It’ll pass or fail based on institutional investors. Tesla has already reached out to them on that and on Elon’s share package. Unless they lied to Tesla IR, both will pass.

I already said I’ll vote for it simply to give Texas a chance to tell me how stupid and incapable I am to know what I voted for in the first place like Delaware did.