Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I hope Tesla insurance is offered to the whole fleet, including legacy cars (like my 2013 S)

My guess is that there will be a different price for FSD vs non-FSD.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Meh. Not too far off third quarter 2018 guidance.

“We achieved GAAP net income of over $300 million, increased cash and equivalents by $731 million and achieved a greater than 20% gross margin for Model 3. And moreover, we expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4. And I believe our aspirations I think it will be for all quarters going forward. I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment, for example in Q1 next year.”

 

[eloder]

I can't wait for my Sentry Mode Auto Insurance discount, to be honest.

I think it's an extremely good news. Insurance companies in general seem to screw over EV drivers. (Even when driving econo-EVs, I had insurance quotes that were 4x higher than what I am paying with my Model 3 now--only found one single reasonable insurance company quote). It's free money and also would remove a huge customer pain point as Tesla would have far more control over the process and a guarantee that repairs would be only through Tesla-approved sources.

Usually not a fan of a closed ecosystem, but it makes a ton of sense for car ownership.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That doesn't really make sense though if they hit all those deliveries.

I kind of wonder if they have more one time restructuring events they expect in Q2.

Depends how many they produce, no? Quickly looking through, I don't see an answer in the report.

 

[elasalle]

OT I was searching for a meaning and here is what I found -

Urban Dictionary: Blowing leaves

 

[Fact Checking]

Deciding whether Model Y should be in NV or CA. I called that one (and got some hate for it...).

Called that one too:

Secondly, it still appears to be unclear (to me) whether the Model Y is going to be made at GF1, or in Fremont. Doing it in Fremont would be safer, faster, and it would allow GF1 vehicle production to be the grounds-up design they always planned - and not a fast copy of the Fremont Model 3 lines. It would also allow GF1 to attract a larger labor force.

Note that I can see four low capex methods to make space at Fremont for Model Y production:

• Retool the Model S body line - this just got easier to do.
• Use the space of the 75D pack assembly lines - this too just got easier to do as well with the new Model S/X.
• Free up and shrink warehouse space at Fremont and re-purpose it as factory floor space. Guess what: Tesla is applying the finishing touches on their new giant warehouse just 55 miles away from Fremont: "Tesla’s massive distribution center in Northern California is coming to life".
• Reduce the complexity of the Model S/X interior, this would free up plastic molding lines at the molding shop. (See 'plastics' on the map below.) The rumored/leaked Model S/X interior refresh might enable this.

A fourth, high capex method is to build new buildings at Fremont:

The blue areas are still available expansion areas I believe - but those would have longer lead time than the re-purposing of existing factory floor space, and would cost significantly more.

Anyway, I think the chances have now increased that Tesla might be able to build the Model Y at Fremont. The other option would be to do it at the Nevada Gigafactory.

 

[Zaxxon]

And that insurance product will be very compelling compared to what is out there now

Till you need the adjuster to come out and the voicemail is full.

Kidding.

Kind of.

non-Tesla cars within same household

For shame.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So far this is a much more informative call than in other quarters.

 

[SebastianR]

HAHA - capital raise question coming I knew it

I like how both Zach & Elon answer this. Very good.

 

[Causalien]

The way Adam Jonas asked that question. Might be some interested party behind the scene.

 

[T@oo]

cap raise question: correct answer by elon

 

[elasalle]

The way Adam Jonas asked that question. Might be some interested party behind the scene.

Trying to extract negative sound bites ...

 

[Boomer19]

who is this f guy?
elon never said they wouldnt raise
he said they wouldnt in 2018

he said they may in middle to second half of 2019
these 'analysts' dont know sugar - then their ignorance becomes the narrative

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"At this point I do think there may be some merit to raising capital" -Elon

 

[tivoboy]

HAHA - capital raise question coming I knew it

It’s not a Tesla quarterly conference call without a capital raise question/concern

“This is probably about the right timing” sort of means it’s coming

 

[Dynastar]

In retrospect, but M3 lines should have been designed for both M3 and MY ...

So they should have figured out how to ramp up their first mass market car AND made sure that line was future proof too? I think the Tesla team is pretty amazing but there are limits...

 

[Tslynk67]

Just stop. (Tesla)

No one is going to believe that. If someone does, I’d like to introduce them to a few bridges that just came available off-market.

Tesla claim that cell production limited their car numbers in Q1. If most purchases from now on are SR+ then in theory they can get, what 35% more M3 for the same number of batteries. Added to that renewed interest in MS/X, maybe it's not such a crazy statement...

 

[X Fan]

Glass half full:
To me it looks like they packed as much bad news into this earnings release as they could. I thought they would try to add some ZEV or recognize the FCA revenue, but they seemed to take no optional revenue sources and have taken all possible write downs. Some of those write downs could not be avoided, due to price reductions, but it didn't seem that all the lease write downs all had to be done in Q1. If deliveries really pick up like they are saying revenue and profit should improve significantly going forward. They just need to tough out the hate campaign, maintain the brand image and keep plugging away on the new products and FSD. Even if FSD is 2021, 2020 should be very profitable.
Glass half empty:
I guess my dream of the stock firing up to $406 after earnings is not going to happen!

"To me it looks like they packed as much bad news into this earnings release as they could"

That's the right approach....

 

[Cobos]

Removing the wave will also be a big boon for Norway. The delivery service really can't handle 5000+ cars in one month here. The consensus seems to have been many were surprised how not sucky the delivery experience was, which is a bar slightly too low. And I'm finally 3 days later catching up on this thread

 

[elasalle]

So they should have figured out how to ramp up their first mass market car AND made sure that line was future proof too? I think the Tesla team is pretty amazing but there are limits...

Learn from S/X, just keep it in design principles from the beginning

What you build is based on initial requirements ...

+ remember, EM himself once stated in future they should be prepared to handle multi-products at same time