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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If EV tax credits go away we might see a demand pull forward for Q3 and Q4. ( I wish more people start thinking this way ... :) )
By the time EV tax credits go away, Tesla needs to have the MQ/2 25K car ready.

A lot of folks who buy 50K + cars might be in tax bracket in which they don't qualify for the credits anyway. Better interest rates will negate the EV credits going away.

If EV credits go away it will hurt the hybrids more than Tesla (I think).
Everyone of more than ten Tesla owners I know qualified as do I. And the battery manufacturer credit goes straight to the bottom line.

You need to stop thinking who it will hurt “more”. I mean , do you own a hybrid auto manufacturing stock??? I don’t. It lops 25% off energy and auto earnings.
 
Good collection of long term plots of Tesla sales in China.
Takeaways if you average out the month-to-month jitter by eye (trailing twelve months):
  • Local sales pretty much flat since mid 2022 at 50,000+-5,000 (first plot)
  • Local BEV market share pretty much flat at 10% since 2021 (7th/last plot)
  • Total sales (including exports) pretty much flat since mid 2022 at 80,000+-8,000 (3rd plot)
Unfortunately I don´t have a table with the data otherwise I´d plot the TTM..
 
As battery prices keep falling, the tax credits becomes less important.
That’s so not true. The battery manufacturing credit is per kWh and could be MORE than the price of the battery. Tesla still gets the credit if it exists, even if that results in a negative battery cost. It will hurt Tesla the most if it is lost. GM might get more of it per car, but Tesla makes it up in much larger volumes.
 
Everyone of more than ten Tesla owners I know qualified as do I. And the battery manufacturer credit goes straight to the bottom line.

You need to stop thinking who it will hurt “more”. I mean , do you own a hybrid auto manufacturing stock??? I don’t. It lops 25% off energy and auto earnings.

3 family members who recently took advantage of the low APR did not qualify.

the only reason I bring up hybrids is because Ford, GM gave up on the EV aspirations to sell hybrids so they too can qualify for the EV credits ..., (+ the Tesla killers can't compete in EV space ... )

Anyway, if Tesla is planning for 25K car and the FED brings down interest rates, Tesla will be on a good footing.


cheers!!
 
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Just last week, heavy rain caused flooding in southern Germany, causing an estimated €2B in property damage. Last year July, a similar event caused damage in the range of €40B. Such calculations only account for what it takes to rebuild. Loss of lives and productivity and secondary damage to the environment from oil spills and the like go on top. The other extreme caused by climate change are draughts. About 20% of German trees are sick or already gone due to several consecutive hot, dry summers. And this in a country with moderate climate. The flood in Brazil last month left more than 600k people homeless. There are costs to the health system, for damage control, entire islands slowly drowning and how do you put a number on the effect on the oceans and wildlife in general?

And while a single event cannot be attributed to climate change, the frequency and magnitude can.

Fossil fuels are subsidized as long as the environmental damage is not fully priced in. Not much difference to a tax break for EVs.
FWIW, the recent Brazilian floods were in Rio Grande do Sul, the far south of Brazil, which has a moderate climate. Even worse are the droughts since 2018 exacerbated by deforestation in the Panatanal (the world's largest wetlands) and the Amazon River basin (lowest water level since at least 121 year ago at Manaus) by far the largest fresh water drainage aggregation in the world ~20% of the world's fresh water. For those ignore the Equatorial river systems it is wise to recognize that the Congo river Basin is the second largest drainage system and the world's deepest river also threatened by deforestation and mining, contributing to mass migration by helping stimulate the massive growth of the Sahara.

No matter how we view things, the impact of poor world energy management and resource treatment are costing the globe to be in risk of mass extinction events.

The world really cannot survive the present trajectory. Until now one of the few bright lights has been Tesla, and evolving renewable energy stimulation. Now we see populist imagery moving towards severely short term views and severe misunderstanding of refugee crises around the world.

This may strike some people as political and verboten. IT should not be so viewed. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TESLA MISSION! If everyone remembers that, and remembers signing up for that mission, we might well have healthier and more productive discussions.

We might view new products and Tesla Energy in different light. Without discounting the mercenary base of securities markets and more specifically, derivatives (all classes of options and futures ).

Is it really helping that many of us have become financially wealthier as our planet is in crisis?
Yes, I know this applies me too.
 
3 family members who recently took advantage of the low APR did not qualify.

the only reason I bring up hybrids is because Ford, GM gave up on the EV aspirations to sell hybrids so they too can qualify for the EV credits ..., (+ the Tesla killers can't compete in EV space ... )

Anyway, if Tesla is planning for 25K car and the FED brings down interest rates, Tesla will be on a good footing.


cheers!!
Ok. Well married income over $300,000 is a pretty high bar, and if you do a lease you get it anyway applied to the lease.
 
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That’s so not true. The battery manufacturing credit is per kWh and could be MORE than the price of the battery. Tesla still gets the credit if it exists, even if that results in a negative battery cost. It will hurt Tesla the most if it is lost. GM might get more of it per car, but Tesla makes it up in much larger volumes.
I’m referring to the price of the car and 7,500 tax credit. (I Wasn’t clear on that part.) Tesla can lower prices as the battery prices fall.
 
Related, but not linked. Regulations:
[3] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/adopted-regulatory-text-pdf/

So, starting from [3], which contains the regulations that define what "disengagement" means. Point 227.50 defines the concept and the reporting associated with it. Now @Doggydogworld , from what I can see under [1] and [3], there's a lot of Waymo vehicles that operate under the DMV permits and there seems to be a mix of driverless and "with test driver" reported as per DMV regulations.
This DMV web page has links to their different AV programs and permits. If you follow the links for "Testing with a Safety Driver" and "Driverless Testing" they show requirements to report collisions and disengagements. But the Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Program page has no such requirements.

Your Regulations PDF spells out the Testing Program collision and disengagement reporting in sections 227.48 and 227.50 on pages 17 and 18. Scroll down a bit further to page 20: "Article 3.8. Deployment of Autonomous Vehicles" and you'll see no such reporting requirements. Once you graduate from Testing to Deployment you stop reporting disengagements and collisions to DMV (you have to report collisions to NHTSA, though)..

Also note p18 of your PDF defines disengagement as "a deactivation of the autonomous mode .....". So even if the deployment program required disengagement reporting, it would not cover the Fleet Response events @Usain is talking about because the vehicle stays in autonomous mode.

Now, even considering the different reporting regulations for the CPUC vs DMV (which I'm not clear on yet),
CPUC is a whole different bureaucracy with different hoops to jump through. They mostly deal with fares. Companies will sometimes deploy free Robotaxis to the public under their DMV Deployment permit, but to charge fares you need deployment permits from both DMV and CPUC.

.....there is still, in my opinion, enough information in the DMV reports to be able to compute a "miles driven between disengagements under city conditions" for Waymo. It might not be all the vehicles, but it's over ~250 of them.
Lots of issues here. First, as noted above a Fleet Response interaction and a disengagement are two completely things under DMV rules. Disengagement is a safety thing - e.g. safety driver jerks the wheel or hits the brake to avoid a collision or the vehicle pulls over and bricks itself until human help shows up. Fleet Response is the car asking "are the two left lanes blocked" and a remote human clicking Yes or No. The autonomous system never disengages. Cruise at least early on was rumored to have a FR event every few miles, but their disengagement reporting was something like once every 30k miles.

There's another issue. Once you Deploy you almost certainly still run a Testing Program to validate new s/w releases, expand the geofence, etc. Testing is designed to push the envelope. It should trigger far more disengagements per mile than normal driving.

Tesla avoids all this bureaucracy for now. They are several years away from deploying robotaxis in CA. IMHO they'll first deploy somewhere in Nevada.
 
i would dispute that he delivered. He hyped, yes. There wasn't full delivery. 4680, solar roof, semi, fsd, all major projects with huge issues on delivery. The CT is at least launched, we will see if it scales. Covid production response was good. last 5 years...meh. Hype not much delivery.
Why do people keep pasting suggestions that 4680 is a failure? Did people expect every possible innovation wrapped up in 4680s to be delivered at gigawatt scale within a year? Are there other companies that are producing at scale, and at a profit, a better battery than Tesla? List them.
And 'lets see if CT scales'. Really? The entire global media seems to work around the clock trying to find fault with the CT and all they had was one minor recall about a pedal cover. They even had to invent an entirely new stupidly priced 'foundation series' because they could not possibly keep up with the insane demand from people who want the truck 'at any price'.

Oh and the list of mega-celebs who PAY TESLA MONEY to be seen with the truck is pretty amazing. Normally its the other way round... Lets compile a list of global celebs who proudly post with their F150 Lightning.

/end of list.

There is zero indication that there will be any problem scaling the CT or selling a lot of them. Last 5 years was meh? what about Texas and Berlin?
Honestly if you cannot see the delivery and innovation at Tesla, then maybe Rivian will suit better as an investment? The financials are a train wreck, and they have zero chance of ever breaking even, but apparently that doesn't matter, according to the financial press.
 
I can picture the SP falling if they both pass. So many institutional want it to fail and may sell.

Another case of down on good news, down on bad news. I’m just planning on this entire year to be crap.
On the other hand, we could see a relief rally once the vote is finally done. It's Tesla. Anything can happen.

Tomorrow is my bi-weekly day to buy some shares. I'll buy no matter the price, but it is fun when you buy and see the stock rally right afterward.
 
OK, I understand your points and apologize for my initial reply.

At the same time there is enough proof (for me) that Waymo's solution is currently at least an order of magnitude better than Tesla's (their data would suggest two orders of magnitude). I think we'll just have to see how the next few years are going to pan out, I don't see any technical reason why tesla would be able to leapfrog them in terms of results.
Apology accepted.

The technical reasons you seek are:
1. Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi platform. Waymo will never be able to manufacture robotaxis as cheaply as Tesla. It won't be a close race on this front.
2. Tesla's end-to-end system will be technically superior to Waymo's heuristics system. It will be very hard, if not impossible, for Waymo to catch up with Tesla on this.

None of that guarantees that either company will be able to build a scalable, profitable system. Both are unproven and/or unprofitable.

But if Tesla is able to do it then Tesla's system will be lower cost than Waymo no matter what Waymo is able to achieve. And lower cost will mean that Tesla wins.