Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

How is this guy still relevant after a partner comes out and accuses him of embezzlement? Who in their right mind would give him $ again?

Jim Chanos Says It’s Hard to Raise Cash in the ‘Golden Age of Fraud’

(Bloomberg) -- From solar stocks to data centers, legendary investor Jim Chanos sees plenty of opportunities for short sellers. The problem: Bearish money managers like him are still struggling to raise capital.Most Read from BloombergUS Inflation Broadly Cools in Encouraging Sign for Fed...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[elasalle]

One example where no means "yes" ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791288098720244075

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791360942615527571

 

[jerry33]

One example where no means "yes" ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791288098720244075

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791360942615527571

That's how it should be. No vote means you agree with the BoD's recommendations. If you want to vote against the BoD, you have to take action.

 

[Skipdd]

So, I was picking my car up at my Service Center today (Cyber Wednesday) and checking out the Cybertrucks there. Appears they have begun to ship the AWD version. Took a picture of the sticker for the one I saw - purposely avoided snapping the VIN.

 

[GOVA]

So, I was picking my car up at my Service Center today (Cyber Wednesday) and checking out the Cybertrucks there. Appears they have begun to ship the AWD version. Took a picture of the sticker for the one I saw - purposely avoided snapping the VIN.

Do they name current models different on the paperwork? In my app config, all wheel drive is 100K

 

[Skipdd]

Do they name current models different on the paperwork? In my app config, all wheel drive is 100K

The price on this one was $101k. The Service guy initially said it was Foundation until I pointed out the price and he saw that Foundation was not etched on the side. Then he saw AWD and said it’s likely the first or one of the first to arrive.

 

[Mengy]

So let's actually discuss the new ARK price targets for TSLA in 2029, just five years from now:

Bear Case: $2000/shr
Prob Case: $2600/shr
Bull Case: $3100/shr

Does anyone here believe these targets are likely to be met? If so, why? Do you base that belief on modeling & math or on feeling & hunches? Does anyone think TSLA might go even higher by 2029?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So let's actually discuss the new ARK price targets for TSLA in 2029, just five years from now:

Bear Case: $2000/shr
Prob Case: $2600/shr
Bull Case: $3100/shr

Does anyone here believe these targets are likely to be met? If so, why? Do you base that belief on modeling & math or on feeling & hunches? Does anyone think TSLA might go even higher by 2029?

flagged for being on topic

 

[Singuy]

Situation in HK is similar to the bay area in California. I am counting about a 10% Tesla on road car replacement which is incredible. For every 20 to 30 Teslas I see, there's a BYD and Seal is the model I usually see. Plenty of RHD refresh model 3s spotted as well. Also it seems they have good early support as well since I have never seen so many pre-face lift old model S.

BYD and Teslas so far are the only two EVs I have spotted so far. No Nio, Xpeng, or any of the other Chinese brands I have seen in China.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Chins sales were not good last week - hopefully just a blip.

12,000 vs 16,400 last year.

View attachment 1055840

Insurance registrations are informative, but I don't put too much stock in any single week. The official monthly numbers show May YTD flat vs. 2023 and QTD +5%. Growth has stalled in China until new models come out, but 0% financing is holding the line. Even if June ends up down a bit it's not a disaster. Lower exports, especially to Europe, are the bigger issue facing Shanghai.

 

[MC3OZ]

Cometh the blockage, cometh the Elon (to unblock and get whatever endeavour going again 10 times faster than almost any other company of its size could do).

Having Elon in charge of tech & finance speeds up decision making. Tesla needs him at the helm today - in the future, maybe not.

We may only have a few years of active Elon left. Having lost friends younger than him, I'd like to have his abilities for Tesla as long as possible, with as little restriction on his brilliance as possible..

I find it ironic that the same people who often complain about "slow progress", also complain abut quick pivots, "changed plans", changed messaging, and chaotic decision making.

Rapid progress requires someone like Elon making quick and bold decisions when necessary.

This isn't necessary at Apple, because they are only doing marginal amounts of innovation, mostly as simple extensions to existing products.

The real test is when companies try to do new innovative products in a category that the haven't done before, e.g. the "Apple Car".

Some also seem to think Elton's politics, social commentary or other activities are more important than Tesla products.

If it was easy, everyone would be doing it, and we wouldn't need Elon.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800750159833575844

Yes

 

[GOVA]

So let's actually discuss the new ARK price targets for TSLA in 2029, just five years from now:

Bear Case: $2000/shr
Prob Case: $2600/shr
Bull Case: $3100/shr

Does anyone here believe these targets are likely to be met? If so, why? Do you base that belief on modeling & math or on feeling & hunches? Does anyone think TSLA might go even higher by 2029?

You said 'just' 5 years. 5 years is a long time in terms of AI developments.

All I know, see and experience - FSD will happen. Looks like the Optimus project will too as both use same programming (not exactly, but for this argument here)

I love watching GigaTX videos from all who make them. Most of the latest addition is the proper room for compute. Tesla will grow 10x (?) in regards to ability of compute. All will be aimed toward FSD and Optimus. Additionally, Tesla also makes its own hardware to ride it. Nobody else is even half way there. Tesla has the engineering and monetary resources. They put their money where their mouth is.

I want them to lead the FSD and Optimus. I think they will do it. Might be 2032, but in a long run it does not matter as long as they reach this goal.

Sometimes analogies look stupid, but 2019 was 5 years ago with chair price of 12 bucks. Same folks had price targets of 400 and were called names but I shared the same outlook. It did happen for a bit until the ride downhill due to the obvious reasons. The next wave will happen and Tesla looks ready to me.

 

[MP3Mike]

The price on this one was $101k. The Service guy initially said it was Foundation until I pointed out the price and he saw that Foundation was not etched on the side. Then he saw AWD and said it’s likely the first or one of the first to arrive.

Yeah, that is the AWD Foundation Edition. They have been shipping them from the start. Most of them sold are just the AWD version.

 

[GatorMeat]

The price on this one was $101k. The Service guy initially said it was Foundation until I pointed out the price and he saw that Foundation was not etched on the side. Then he saw AWD and said it’s likely the first or one of the first to arrive.

AWD FS is $101k.

 

[sunwarriors]

So let's actually discuss the new ARK price targets for TSLA in 2029, just five years from now:

Bear Case: $2000/shr
Prob Case: $2600/shr
Bull Case: $3100/shr

Does anyone here believe these targets are likely to be met? If so, why? Do you base that belief on modeling & math or on feeling & hunches? Does anyone think TSLA might go even higher by 2029?

Even at the bear case, TSLA would be over $6.2 trillion in market cap. That's about MSFT and NVDA combined who are in industries with far higher margins and little/no manufacturing (outside of the chips I guess). Their PEs are also 30s/70s respectively and NVDA has a forward PE in the 40s. No company has ever been valued like that and in 5 years now? Tesla would need insane levels of profits which have dropped a lot to even have a chance and RT/AI/Optimus isn't even a product yet.

No matter what happens with RT/Optimus, a physical product will also still need to be mass produced. I've said it before, I think folks are being dumb following her, but it's your/everyone's $$ to invest. If anything, I'd be doing the opposite of whatever she decides to do and her actually being so bullish should be a big concern for folks (since she's been pretty wrong about anything she has heavily invested in). She famously exited NVDA at the worst time in late 2022 which could've made her a billion+ (and even more now) across her funds.


Why 2029?

Here is her prediction back in early 2021 that Tesla will be $3000 in 2025. I think we'd all be dead before it happens or it won't happen since she's just moving her time targets. She can say year 2100 <shrug>. I think the BEST time to buy Tesla is probably when she gives up honestly. You also have to factor in that Elon is moving general/most AI (IMO) to xAI which has 0 benefit to Tesla shareholders meaning it's all banking on massive profits from FSD/Optimus.

Cathie Wood, Ark Funds Lay Out New $3,000 Price Target For Tesla Shares: What Investors Should Know

Ark Funds CEO and Co-Founder Cathie Wood joined Benzinga for the “Raz Report” interview earlier this month. At that time, Wood promised a new price target was coming on Tesla from Ark. On Friday, it arrived. Ark Funds on Tesla: Ark Funds updated its price target for shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ...

finance.yahoo.com

"Last year, Ark Funds listed a split adjusted price target on Tesla shares of $1,400 by the year 2024."

"The bear case from Ark Funds is for shares of Tesla to hit $1,500 in 2025. The new bull case from Ark Funds is for Tesla shares to hit $4,000 in 2025."

 

[Leftlane22]

Cathie Wood has figured out the best way for her to make money is by staying in the news all the time. Aside from one big year, when lots of stuff made money, she has been dead wrong about everything. Throwing out ridiculous valuations keeps her in the conversation among people who want to believe. Ark Innovation is the 3rd biggest wealth destroyer of the last 5 years - she just knows how to market herself. The loudest mouths get the most attention, whether they are right or not. In 2029 no one will remember what she said in 2024 and she might be long gone anyway. As a shareholder I hope she’s right, but I doubt she will be.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800750159833575844

Yes

That just pumped up his youtube channel I'm sure. I've watched a few, and all pretty upbeat and engaging with his tall buddy scientist.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The robotaxi using customers cars thing will likely never be a big deal, but if tesla solves FSD (which looks more likely every day, especially given people's tweets who have 12.4.1), then it means:

The counter to this is that 12.4.1 isn't a huge advancement to 12.3.6(according to WholeMars, BlackTesla Multiple employees, and many others), even Elon agreed it's not ready.

It's really the first real update from the mass release of V12. I think we should wait and see before the rest. The delivery thing is kind of crazy, people typically have their packages dropped off. That would require a bot.

 

[spacerfc]

Perhaps you could suggest how me in my dotage, or my descendants, then best should proceed when Mr Musk either is ensconced on Mars, or otherwise no longer is around. This will happen.

Isn't it obvious? Evaluate his successor and the state of the company, if you like what you see keep holding, otherwise start liquidating your position and looking for the next innovator/disruptor, it's no different from any investment.

No company lasts forever, eventually they all falter and die, but there will be new startups rise up and taking their place, it's the cycle of life, Tesla is no exception.