Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[azaz]

Tesla service “goodwill” is still allowed.

Got a service bill for tmrw with an inspection being covered under goodwill.

 

[neroden]

Maxwell sold their CONDIS product line a few months ago for $50m+. That'll fund them for a while.

Not that long. It was sold in late 2018. At the end of 2018, Maxwell had $58 million in cash and $10.5 million unused under its revolving line of credit. Having sold their profitable CONDIS business, loss from continuing operations is $44 million. Cash flows are worse.

It's not a good situation when they start selling off profitable businesses for pocket change. That way lies diseconomies of scale.

At least they have a gross profit. But with a gross profit of $10 million and SG&A of $30 million, R&D of $20 million, they have to multiply their sales by a factor of FIVE to start breaking even. Where's it going to come from? More importantly, how are they going to do it *fast enough*?

A year and a half, that's how much time they have to get to breakeven as an independent company. Obviously, as part of Tesla, they can probably cut SG&A down to zero *and* multiply "sales" (for internal Tesla use) by more than 5.

If there were a white knight with a better offer, they'd have made a bid by now. I guess there might be one with a worse offer than Tesla.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You said you listened to the conference call. You might want to listen again or read the transcript. No, a lot of the 10,000 were cars that couldn't be delivered in time in Europe, even though they were mostly on the ground, because of overcrowding or snafus at the delivery centers.

The P&D report said: "US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1." So we know US in-transit was pretty high. Also, European April sales indicate they had perhaps 2k in transit at end of Q1. China might have had a few, as usual it's a black box.

I'd estimate 8k US in transit at end of Q1.

 

[EVNow]

Then why can't Tesla just buy our shares for cash? I'd tender for $4.75 in cash. With the current price action, I do not want TSLA shares. It is down to what, $234? Hell, I could lose a couple grand in the time it will take to swap out the shares in order to sell them.

But you could also make 10% - afterall the SP is at 52 wk low now.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Then why can't Tesla just buy our shares for cash? I'd tender for $4.75 in cash. With the current price action, I do not want TSLA shares. It is down to what, $234? Hell, I could lose a couple grand in the time it will take to swap out the shares in order to sell them.

You don't get to choose, for all the reasons above. ^^^^^

 

[jhm]

So about noon, I set a limit order to buy at $230. Heed my wrath!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I know I'm not the only one wondering when, not if, Tesla will unveil their own cell lines. We know how much they obsess over vertical integration. Their problems with Panasonic will only accelerate the push to in-house this last key element.

Wouldn't be surprised if Grohmann is working on it right now.

It does seem inevitable. The purchase of companies that both automate production and advance battery tech seem to be showing T is moving in that direction.

 

[EVNow]

I can't believe Spain post in realtime while the UK takes 3 months.

I saw it on the side of a bus that Brexit would fix it

 

[Tslynk67]

Oh, BMW passenger car sales were down 17% from last April. Tesla sales are up almost 100% from April 2018 in the US.

 

[ggr]

And Tesla needs every penny.

Maxwell has had no problem raising cash. Revenues are growing and losses have been reduced each QoQ for over a year.

Yahoo finance seems to disagree.

 

[EVNow]

So about noon, I set a limit order to buy at $230. Heed my wrath!

Bought some for my 401k at 232 today.

 

[jerry33]

Well, that was a sudden massive drop in pretty much every stock out there...


From Maxwell's Q3 2018 ER: "As of September 30, 2018, Maxwell had approximately $23.6 million in cash, in addition to a Revolving Line of Credit for up to $25.0 million."

As of April 1, Tesla had $2.2bn cash on hand.

2.2 is obviously smaller than 23.6. Don't worry about the pesky letters after the numbers

 

[EVNow]

Here's a piece of news we'd like to see in the coming weeks or months: adding a third shift back to S+X. That would be taken as a hugely bullish signal.

If it's going to happen (no guarantees... they're more cell limited now without the 75Ds, after all), I wouldn't expect it too soon. It's going to take time for them to ramp up motor production, suspension production, and new S+X production in general.

ED: Then again, with how few they produced in Q1, there should be a cell surplus....

Even better - make 20/25k S/X without adding a third shift. That would be really bullish

 

[JohnDinger]

Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound? At this point, we need a 25% gain to get back to 300.

The only ones I can see are both much later this year: China factory completion and full self-driving feature teases.

 

[Garlands]

View attachment 403022

How come X3 and X5 arent included in this?

 

[anthonyj]

Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound? At this point, we need a 25% gain to get back to 300.

The only ones I can see are both much later this year: China factory completion and full self-driving feature teases.

Good numbers. That’s all that matters at this point

 

[jerry33]

In reading all of these posts (which I haven't gotten to all of them yet) it is clear you we are all one of three things.

You're either a true long, an incredibly disciplined level headed person, or the king or queen of heartburn indigestion and high blood pressure.

Dan

Well, I know I'm not the third, and with only 135 shares I can't possibly be the first, so I guess I'm incredibly disciplined and level headed.

 

[Tslynk67]

How come X3 and X5 arent included in this?

Because it's just "passenger cars", the X? are defined as "light trucks", see here:

BMW of North America Reports April 2019 U.S. Sales.

So perhaps to be totally fair you'd need to exclude the MX from the equation

 

[ggr]

Why did you choose not to refer to the 10-K filed in February where Maxwell showed $58 million in cash on hand on 12/31/18?

Because the 10K says that the reason they had cash is that they were basically forced to sell off assets, as you have already noted.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It does seem inevitable. The purchase of companies that both automate production and advance battery tech seem to be showing T is moving in that direction.

From the 2019Q1 Conference Call: (the very last question)

Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Okay. And then as you look at the Maxwell Technology integration, post close, how quickly do you think you'll be able to integrate that technology into the battery production? And could you comment on potential for chemistry and form factor changes as that gets integrated?

Elon R. Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

I mean, you're really asking some super secret sauce questions here. Yeah. I think, we'll have -- I think we'll probably have an Investor Day like we have an Autonomy Day maybe later this year or early next just to go over the cell and battery technology and future strategy. And I think that will be very informative, but we do recognize the criticality of this.
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