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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It's a mess!

campaign+zach+straw.jpg
 
Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound? At this point, we need a 25% gain to get back to 300.

The only ones I can see are both much later this year: China factory completion and full self-driving feature teases.
Better Q2. China factory completion is expected - so won't move SP by more than a 1%. FC on FSD probably won't move the needle either. What would move SP are some demos which are better than on autonomy day. In different cities and longer, more ad-hoc routes.
 
Hah, good point!

May delivery numbers for Europe then! Or ship loadings. I haven't been following the ship loadings, what's the current guess on Euro ships and China ships?

With regards to Pier 80, Q2 is so far a bit behind Q1, fourth ship is at Pier 80 28 days into the quarter 13 days after the quarter's first ship arrival. In Q1 the fourth ship arrived at Pier 80 23 days in to the quarter, 12 days after the quarter's first ship.

So it's a bit early to say, but there is some indication that domestic versus overseas deliveries are more balanced in Q2.

Q2's fourth ship is believed to be headed for EU, for a 50/50 split with China.

Tesla Carriers

- with thanks to Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter
 
With regards to Pier 80, Q2 is so far a bit behind Q1, fourth ship is at Pier 80 28 days into the quarter 13 days after the quarter's first ship arrival. In Q1 the fourth ship arrived at Pier 80 23 days in to the quarter, 12 days after the quarter's first ship.

So it's a bit early to say, but there is some indication that domestic versus overseas deliveries are more balanced in Q2.

Q2's fourth ship is believed to be headed for EU, for a 50/50 split with China.

Tesla Carriers

- with thanks to Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter

Are you counting the Glovis Sonic? The first ship in Q1 was also lightly loaded.
 
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Maxwell is unrelated to cell production. It's a tech related to the production of anode and cathode materials.
Cylindrical cell production:
1. Cut copper and aluminum sheets into long strips of proper width (e.g. 70 mm)
2. Coat sheets with active material (NCA, graphite, etc.) to make anode and cathode
3. Layer anode, separator and cathode
4. Cut to length and wind layers to make 'jelly roll'
5. Put jelly roll in cylindrical can
6. Wet separator with electrolyte
7. Connect anode and cathode to leads, seal can, etc.

Maxwell's DBE changes step #2. Panasonic currently mixes the NCA or graphite powders with solvents and coats the metal sheet with a wet slurry, then evaporates the solvents out in huge drying ovens. DBE mixes the powders with glue and coats the metal sheets. There's no need for drying ovens, no toxic solvents evaporating into the air, etc. I consider it part of the cell production process, but I suppose one could say it's part of the anode and cathode production process, which then feeds the cell winding process.
 
With regards to Pier 80, Q2 is so far a bit behind Q1, fourth ship is at Pier 80 28 days into the quarter 13 days after the quarter's first ship arrival. In Q1 the fourth ship arrived at Pier 80 23 days in to the quarter, 12 days after the quarter's first ship.

So it's a bit early to say, but there is some indication that domestic versus overseas deliveries are more balanced in Q2.

Q2's fourth ship is believed to be headed for EU, for a 50/50 split with China.

Tesla Carriers

- with thanks to Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter

Worth noting that Zach commented during the CC that now they are filling all ships (which wasn’t always the case in Q1), so it is possible that they are not behind Q1 in total cars shipped.
 
@Wooloomooloo

OT
let's see. 2012 Tesla S better than competitors 2019+
7 years technological advantage, vertically integrated/
Please give a vague timeline of when Tesla is a minority in the EV market?
Please focus on the battery technology
(how long have you been following this field?)

I am not sure why you're asking me that - I wasn't talking about battery technology, I was referring to his specific comment that Maxwell would be better off staying independent and thus having a larger market to sell to (i.e. being able to sell to other EV makers). My point was, if and when that market grows significantly beyond Tesla (I'm sure it will someday) it will be too late, Maxwell is arguable more valuable being part of Tesla in the short to medium term, and for them, there is no long term so that option is off the table.

Hypothetically, to address your questions, well I don't think Tesla will maintain >50% market share in EV sales indefinitely and so Maxwell would have other markets to sell to eventually, if they last that long.

As for batteries, as I said in another thread, I think that's truly where there future lies and more specifically in space travel. I don't know if Musk will ever make it to Mars, but I'd be willing to bet the first power modules used there (and on the moon) will be Teslas.
 
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Worth noting that Zach commented during the CC that now they are filling all ships (which wasn’t always the case in Q1), so it is possible that they are not behind Q1 in total cars shipped.
So far ship cadence and loading times match Q1 very closely, so I'm taking Zach's claim with a grain of salt.
Even better - make 20/25k S/X without adding a third shift. That would be really bullish ;)
S/X line went to two shifts in early 2018. They said that was all they needed for 100k/year thanks to efficiencies achieved in late 2017.

In early 2019 Tesla's layoff notices included some production workers and reports said other S/X workers were moved to Model 3 production. When asked, a Tesla spokesperson said they had reduced S/X production hours. At the time I took that to mean they dropped to a single S/X shift. The Q1 production report backs this up - 14k vs. 27k for the highest previous quarter.
 
At $3 I score a 50+% profit. I am fine gambling for more. Where's the fun otherwise? ;)

Wait, you are in Iceland? Do they sell Teslas there yet/ offer service?

They're prepping to start deliveries / service. We're part of a whole world that the "no demand!" people think doesn't exist, including for example, all of E. Europe, Russia, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, India, Brazil, etc etc etc.
 
Indeed the Motley Fool transcript says "SEC":

"...will Tesla be able to complete their purchase of Maxwell Technologies? What is holding that back?

Jonathan Chang -- General Counsel

Yeah. Hi, it's Jonathan Chang, General Counsel here. Right now, it is going through approvals with the SEC. There is not a whole lot of things holding it back. We're on schedule, we're on track. Right now we're looking to close in mid-May.​

When I get the time, I'll go back to the audio recording and verify what Jonathan said.

Paging @mongo @neroden

The Motley Fool transcript was likely lifted from the Youtube Closed Captioning (CC) which does read "SEC". Start listening at 14:25 to hear the subject Q&A yourself:


There is an audio glitch in the recording just as Jonathan is pronouncing the 3 letters in doubt. :( Arguably (to my ear) the 1st letter could be either an "S" or an "F". Very difficult to interpret without a moving picture to assist with lip reading clues.

The second letter sounds (to me) like a "T" rather than an "E" because it has a sharp "TAH" initiating sound, rather than a softer "Eee" sound. It helps to slow down playback.

And of course the 3rd character is of no help since it is a "C" in either interpretation.

Again, I hold that it makes more sense for Tesla to be seeking approvals from the FTC since they are the Gov't Agency responsible for oversight of Aquisitions and Mergers.