Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just today my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

Don't do a thing. Don't listen to them because you have way more information than them. And let me tell you it's a terrible feeling for awhile. Everyone you know thinks you are completely dumb and have no idea what you are doing. Eventually you begin to believe it. In fact I fell for the bait with my gigantic stake in AMD and missed out on 200k worth of returns (so 340k gains vs 140k gains I have today).As a bull, that's the worst feeling. You stuck with a company thick and thin and had with weeks/months of headaches but when the reward came you were left out for the ride. Dude when AMD short squeezed after I sold 2/3 of my stake I couldn't eat for 2 weeks. I felt just fine when I was -40k with AMD though.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just today my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

The *sugar* is getting shorted out of it and then negative headlines are pumped out daily, at least that’s my short answer.

 

[Curt Renz]

Lately there has developed a perfect storm of negative coverage of Tesla from analysts and the media resulting in a 50% drop from its all-time high. But it’s not unprecedented. Tesla also fell 50% from September 2014 to February 2016, before nearly tripling into September 2017.

Here’s a report from CNN Business shortly before the low of February 2016. It sounded eerily similar to the noise from the current storm: Tesla's worst nightmare ... cheap gas

 

[Prunesquallor]

Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just today my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

Point them to the latest ARK Invest Tesla valuation. Ask them which assumptions they disagree with.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just today my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

Just wink at them via Twitter...

Thanks for the insight into how Musk must be feeling. I feel it would double his resolve, and that of the entire company, to prove the naysayers wrong.

 

[aznt1217]

Lately there has developed a perfect storm of negative coverage of Tesla from analysts and the media resulting in a 50% drop from its all-time high. But it’s not unprecedented. Tesla also fell 50% from September 2014 to February 2016, before nearly tripling into September 2017.

Here’s a report from CNN Business shortly before the low of February 2016. It sounded eerily similar to the noise from the current storm: Tesla's worst nightmare ... cheap gas

Thanks for posting Curt for the zoomed out perspective!

 

[Hock1]

Short sellers borrow stock and then sell it on the market. If they time their sales well, they can create seeming gluts in supply, causing the price to fall. If they do that strategically, they can make a perception of a sell-off or trigger stop losses, causing further stock declines. Also, since they're borrowing shares, rather than buying them, they effectively cause (temporary) dilution until they cover.

"Mark

When the intention is to manipulate the price, it is illegal. This type of behavior was the chief reason behind the 1907 panic that lead to the run on the banks when the Knickerbocker Trust was rumored to be insolvent after a failed corner of the copper market by the Hienz brothers. In the 20s, Michael Meehan of the RCA pool operated the same type of scheme knowning many shares were held by insiders. he accumulated shares, pumped the stock with fake news letters, and sold before the price crashed. After the SEC act was made into law, Mr Meehan was the first person charged for securities violations.

 

[TradingInvest]

Is it possible for Tesla to spin off several units: Tesla Network; Tesla AI/FSD; Tesla Insurance; Tesla Energy...
so the current shareholders proportionally get shares of each unit?

 

[Pras]

Thank you sir.

Edit: That’s what I love about quantitative analysis, even if some of the internal model workings are opaque. Different input, different results. Do they make sense?

Editx2. How straightforward for ARK to make their model available. Absolutely transparent. Every ”analyst” out there should be asked about the model they are using, and if it available to the public.

True, that is why you run multiple cases to know the ranges to work in. The problem with Adam Jonas and other auto analysts of the world I’d that they are too reliant on current and past data. They will never even dare to imagine if Tesla can grow to build 1m cars. For example they are still imagining that q2 deliveries will likely be 70k. This despite knowing that Jan and Feb were literally the worst months in terms of orders, and half of the Q2 seems already doing better.

Also Adam is forecasting 250k deliveries in 2019, this is literally 62k time 4 quarters. So this is his forecast, take Q1 number multiply by 4.

The point is, quantitative models are only as good as the assumptions used.

 

[N5329K]

Along with the financial pain, this drop has caused me to get grief from others. My dad told me to stay away from Tesla when we were still in the 250 range. Just today my brother asked what I was doing with my Tesla stock. People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

They’re suggesting you do what most people do: buy high and sell low.
Robin

 

[SPadival]

Update from Jack Rickards.. hey Jack

FF to 1:02:03 if the link doesn’t get you there directly

Edit: Direct link
ytCropper | Tesla Model 3 CAN Display with TorquePro.

 

[Hock1]

When the intention is to manipulate the price, it is illegal. This type of behavior was the chief reason behind the 1907 panic that lead to the run on the banks when the Knickerbocker Trust was rumored to be insolvent after a failed corner of the copper market by the Hienz brothers. In the 20s, Michael Meehan of the RCA pool operated the same type of scheme knowning many shares were held by insiders. he accumulated shares, pumped the stock with fake news letters, and sold before the price crashed. After the SEC act was made into law, Mr Meehan was the first person charged for securities violations.

Interesting that we have come full circle. Back then there was no uptick rule, so it was easy to manipulate share prices down. The SEC Act of 1934 instituted the uptick rule which required short sales to be initiated on up, or neutral, ticks. Then in 2007 the SEC in its infinite wisdom, decided that we didn't really need the uptick rule after all, even though it kept markets in pretty good order for 73 years. This, and the Madoff Exemption which the SEC endorsed in the early 2000's, allowing market makers to short stock that was not borrowed (i.e., fake shares), were all that was needed to create today's market of rampant manipulation.

 

[ggies07]

People at work are also asking. I'm sure I'm going to get it tomorrow from two other stock holders I haven't seen in a while who don't hold as much as I do. It sucks trying to explain to them that the stock price is no indication of the health and progress of the company. Still growing around 50%/year with no end in site for a few years.... Sigh..

Yep, same here. My head of school is poking fun at me now. He's a big supporter of EVs and the such, but he believes what he reads from the media. I tried to explain and we had a fun back and forth, but still......

 

[ggies07]

Everyone you know thinks you are completely dumb and have no idea what you are doing.

Yeah, well, that's when I tell people I keep up with the company every day and the analysts dont. That drops their jaw....

 

[Singuy]

Yeah, well, that's when I tell people I keep up with the company every day and the analysts dont. That drops their jaw....

Usually what drop their jaws when they realize how rich you became because the stock doubled/tripled.

 

[SO16]

So he could tweet it if it gets approved

At this point I prefer shorts to pile on. This sword has two edges : Elon can't suggest shorts to tiptoe to the exit without approval either.

If Elon does have something up his sleeve, I wish he’d just do it without the warnings and winks.

 

[capster]

I'm wondering, if in theory, a bunch of retail investors could pool enough money to buy all the open shares.
For ex, to raise $30B, we would need 2 million people to each put in $15k. I would think this is possible.

So basically what I'm trying to understand - is there enough money in all retail investors to actually buy Tesla Inc?

I’m in.

 

[capster]

When the intention is to manipulate the price, it is illegal. This type of behavior was the chief reason behind the 1907 panic that lead to the run on the banks when the Knickerbocker Trust was rumored to be insolvent after a failed corner of the copper market by the Hienz brothers. In the 20s, Michael Meehan of the RCA pool operated the same type of scheme knowning many shares were held by insiders. he accumulated shares, pumped the stock with fake news letters, and sold before the price crashed. After the SEC act was made into law, Mr Meehan was the first person charged for securities violations.

What if the intent isn’t to manipulate the price, but to trigger a recall?

 

[anthonyj]

This herp derp retail ganging up and buying a 50% stake is hurting my brain. It’s a really silly concept. If tutes keep dumping it will happen anyway

I think we are nearing peak hysteria. Need a couple more bulls here to capitulate and maybe some violent threats like in 2016. That will be the buying opportunity

 

[Mike Smith]

Adam Jonas in 2015 saying TSLA could realistically go to $1,900. Apparently Morgan Stanley was extremely upset about this, and he never spoke of it again.