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Just curious / how have you been responding to recent weakness in Tesla? Buying / selling? Any sense on when we climb out of this mess?

It’s all numbers at this point man, until a large uptick in deliveries are shown and/or financials get better expect the same price action.

Unfortunately the I believe the Tesla Pick up could’ve been a small catalyst but I’m uncertain on how it’s going to look. If it’s too Sci-fi and weird that’s not going to cut it.
 
On the topic of costs, they cut the Homelink chip recently:

(Fred link)
Tesla removes Homelink from standard Model 3 features, now a $300 aftermarket product - Electrek

It can be installed by Tesla Service for $300 if you request it.

I've been thinking about this and I think it's correct. It's a third-party chip and the licensing fee is probably high. People who park outdoors, or in shared apartment-building-style parking garages, or have manual garage doors simply don't use it.

Now, the patents on Homelink should have expired (circa 2017). So it should be possible for Tesla to create a home-brewed garage door opener implementation and implement it in much cheaper than whatever they're paying in licensing fees. They clearly have not done that yet. But in the meantime, getting out from the licensing fees may be a meaningful cost reduction, and a lot of people don't use the feature at all.

The Model Y replacement of 70 parts with 5 in the rear will probably be adopted by the Model 3.

There's gonna be a lot of this stuff.
I am curious how many people have zero use for the functionality - not in a could use their standard remote sense, but actually don't have any garage door or gate to go through, i.e. street parking or non-gated or non-RF (PIN code, RFID, etc) gated communities. For the S/X removing it would be probably silly, but for the 3/Y, especially on the SR, this may actually not a terrible idea to both reduce costs and monetize a "lesser used" feature to a greater extent.

Emotionally this feels like a silly cost cutting move, and I bet their cost is nowhere near $300-labor for the unit, but it probably is a separate unit connected via a harness connector someplace, not embedded into any Tesla bespoke hardware, so installing it "aftermarket" should be trivial, and the only production line change should be not installing it (versus switching to a different module and changing harnesses to use an external module and so on), plus of course a minor software change so that the car knows whether or not the device exists (so it doesn't throw errors if it would have, and hide the menu option since it's not there)

Everyone already has openers for their garages / gates / etc, so it's not like losing is crippling, though it does feel cheap to remove the feature by default, even if you don't have an immediate use for it.

I would be astonished if the module cost more than $50, and even at that price whomever is their supplier is ripping them off for what ought to be about $5-10 at most in parts all in (licensing fees and Homelink profiteering aside). So probably half an hour job to install it at most, this should be something like a 200% margin add-on.

So I'm sort-of okay with this as an investor, but boy would I be annoyed as a customer. Sort of how I'm okay with all the price changes (though they should be less haphazard) and so on as an investor but I'm kind of annoyed with the fact that I now effectively paid "too much" for my LR 3 (though to be fair, with the timings of tax credits and uncertainty of backlogs and being able to buy a RWD LR so that I have the longest range 3 currently in existance... and this is Tesla and I knew it would happen eventually).

I'm actually sort of surprised there isn't already alternatives to the homelink solution. Nobody cares about the X-10 wireless support, almost nobody ever used that to do anything from their car and X-10 is a dead/dying standard (now if it could speak Insteon, Z-Wave, Zigbee, or something else modern, perhaps HTTP REST to a custom endpoint after connecting to your home wifi, that would be at least interesting), and universal replacement garage door remotes have existed forever that aren't "Homelink compatible". Perhaps the patents specifically call out integrating the RF device into the vehicle, blocking (until recently) anyone from doing even basic GDO functionality. Still, if the patents expired in 2017, there should have already been Chinese suppliers with fully tested devices ready to go the same day.
 
Q3 gave us a mix of RWD/AWD. Q4 gave us a mix of LR and MR packs. This data plus supporting info from Tesla statements and teardowns tells us the COGS difference between SR+ and LR-AWD is nowhere near your 15k. Maybe it's 4k or 6k instead of my 5k, but small differences don't change the final conclusion.
The point is not that it is 15k, but you can change the numbers by small amount to come up with COGS that are quite different and thus approximate rough calculations are not reliable.

If 20 kwh and a motor and needed electronics (and other differences) can all be done for 4K, it is not clear why the rest of the car would take $40k. Makes no sense.
 
Best to ignore deliveries, they blur the picture. Tesla produce as many 3s as they can and they all sell. That’s a given.

But Tesla did make a ‘mistake’ with model 3. They made it too good. People paying for the top of the range S and X expect the best specs.

Q3 and Q4 all focus was on the 3. 5000/wk took the company profitable, but only because S and X were still selling well. Come Q1, the Osborne effect kicked it, it’s winter, delivery challenges, new parts challenges. Back to loss. Ugh.

Tesla see the problem and rush to address it with Raven. (We know it was rushed because of the supplier lawsuit, where Tesla phoned through an old parts cancellation.) Flagship orders return, but it takes time to scale up once more. But the media is brutal. They now have ammo to attack the share price. They do so successfully.

We are in a hole, but there are two roads out. Scale up 3. Scale up raven S and X. Both roads are being taken.

Massive buying opportunity for anybody who accepts that the speed bump is in the rear view mirror, the accelerator is down.

Should Tesla have seen Ozzie coming? Perhaps. Did any of us? No, we were too excited about the 3 ramp. If you did see it coming and can point to a post made in 2018 supporting that, by all means be critical.

I bought at $184. I will buy more if the price falls. I will buy more if the price starts climbing.

Good analysis. I'd add that Tesla apparently underestimated the tax credit "cliff" effect (which I estimated roughly correctly) and so were confused by that (this led to low store traffic for Jan and Feb, causing an excessive focus on store closures, which was reversed when foot traffic came back in Mar/Apr).

And I think Tesla saw the Osborning problem in advance, planned Raven in advance... and then Raven was two or three months *late* in completion, which hurt. And probably required the discontinuation of the 75 (they'd run out of parts for it, perhaps).

There is a third road out of the hole: S is being Osborned and X isn't, so switch the mix from S to X. But X and S have separate body lines, so they have to merge those to do that (as originally planned). So they're taking that road too (according to what we've heard).

Tesla had a third problem: they didn't manage to get Model 3 up to 7000/week let along 10000/week. They're still working on it (probably near 7K/now).

And they had a fourth problem: Model 3 costs were not dropping to target levels fast enough. The first move to deal with that was the SR+ -- luckily it proved *very* popular, popular enough to turn the SR into a software-locked model (and probably eventually discontinue it) the way the Model S 40 was software-locked and discontinued. The second move was a lot of different cost reductions, which are coming in one at a time.
 
That is just hilarious. Even one of TSLA's longest standing bears thinks Tesla is now beaten down enough that it is a buy (barely).

Too funny.

Here are some of his past valuations for context:

Sept. 2013, SP was $170, he valued it at $67.
May 2014, SP in the 260s, he valued it at $114.
July 2015, SP in the 220s, he valued it at $123.
June/July 2016, SP in the $200s, he valued it at $151.
June 2017, SP well into the 300s, he valued it at $192.
June 2018, SP was $350, he valued it at $170-$180.
To be fair, TSLA was a big fat bubble in 2013 due to a massive short squeeze and FOMO. Valuation has been high for some time too. He’s kind of right. Now is the time for smart money to hop in
 
Here's a paragraph from my daily charts post I just had to share with a larger audience:

Also hurting TSLA today was a Bernstein note (CNBC version here) that basically said that nobody would want to pick up Tesla and that if Tesla went out of business life would get better for the European auto makers. This is the same kind of lame fear tactics and nonsense that Adam Jonas has been selling lately, but it's good for knocking a couple points off the stock price and so they do it. Here's a free piece of advice for the Bernstein analyst. Maybe, just maybe, one of those car companies that is going to be paying Tesla billions of dollars for EV credits might find some use for a positive cash-flow EV automaker with huge demand.

Nah, let's not tell him and make him figure it out on his own.
 
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I don't have to watch videos, I do believe progress is impressive.

The problem with FSD is that anecdotes do not mean data. If a camera only approach can reconstruct 99.99% of the scenes, that is still not going to be good enough! I have faith that Tesla can aggregate all the key data to ramp up camera-object identification accuracy as much as possible giving the data and deep RL methods, but how could I possibly be confident its going to get to a certain number of .99999 digits? I work in ML and I would be insane to be so confident in the eventual accuracy of my work.

You have to assume probabilistic outcomes. If the camera based approach is only 99.99% reliable, where does that leave Tesla in terms leveraging the technology? I am more optimistic it means people will pay some more money for L2 (maybe L3) that can handle more roads.

It will NOT allow robotaxis (outside of constrained environments). Thus the financial valuation changes.

I am not saying Tesla will not achieve L4/L5 with cameras. I am saying I would give it a 10% chance. The "expected value" of valuation (say $4000/share if successful) given that would still be much higher than the current stock price, so it is a rationale bet.

But enough with the crazy talk, you crazies ;)

I have no idea where you came up with numbers on a camera based approach. Citation?

Question is, do you know your safety number? As in how many 9's of safety do you estimate for yourself? Or how many 9's in a salesman's life of traveling? I think many are just plain measuring trust against self confidence and ignoring the data strategy. I'm not surprised.

Are you OK with 2X safer FSD than you? If not, this discussion is moot. Kick back, wait and see, but be prepared to pay dearly for FSD when that day comes.
 
You have to assume probabilistic outcomes. If the camera based approach is only 99.99% reliable, where does that leave Tesla in terms leveraging the technology? I am more optimistic it means people will pay some more money for L2 (maybe L3) that can handle more roads.
How good do you think human vision is ? NN needs to be just better than that.

Fairly sure they can do better than a lot of us in rain at night, for eg.

The 3D maps created by cameras look very good - including the ones posted by Google researchers. I posted a link to some tweets on this by Karpathy some time back.
 
It's not just Fiat buying credits from Tesla...

GM and Fiat Chrysler are buying Tesla's regulatory credits

GM and Fiat Chrysler are buying Tesla’s regulatory credits – TechCrunch

"Meanwhile, GM’s first and only credit purchase has been more recent and with a specific mission in mind. GM already produces an all-electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt, and until recently was making a plug-in hybrid, the Chevy Volt. These sales would seem to be more than enough to offset sales of its vehicles with tailpipe emissions. And it has been. GM contends this is an insurance policy against future regulatory uncertainties.

“We do not need credits for compliance today, but purchasing credits is permitted under the regulations and is used as an insurance policy against future regulatory uncertainties,” a GM spokesperson said in an emailed comment.” The filing is a routine procedure that is used to protect interests in performance of contractual obligations.”
Future uncertainties such as "we have no idea how we are going to turn around this battleship and retrain all our ICE design engineering, manufacturing teams, dealer networks, marketing teams, service centers, parts centers to live in the BEV world so we better buy credits since we know in the future the battle ship will not have turned" ... :D i love it admitting they are on the horns of an innovators dilemma
 
It’s all numbers at this point man, until a large uptick in deliveries are shown and/or financials get better expect the same price action.

Unfortunately the I believe the Tesla Pick up could’ve been a small catalyst but I’m uncertain on how it’s going to look. If it’s too Sci-fi and weird that’s not going to cut it.

Agree. The pickup is in the same category as robotaxis - the Street will believe it when they see it and there are bonafide plans with realistic timelines - suppliers lined up, production facilities identified, funding secured, etc. - that are known. At least the pickup is more believable at this point. If the pickup is far out of the mainstream though, then it will be regarded as possibly having a negative impact - sunk costs for something that's going to be a hard sell to traditional truck buyers. It would be better to say nothing at this point since most are not going to believe it and it just looks like a diversion. IMHO, of course.
 
I am curious how many people have zero use for the functionality - not in a could use their standard remote sense, but actually don't have any garage door or gate to go through, i.e. street parking or non-gated or non-RF (PIN code, RFID, etc) gated communities.

56% of Model 3 owners own their own home.
Tesla Model 3 Demographics: Who Buys Model 3s by Age, Income:

This isn't a perfect correlation:
-- I know a lot -- I mean really a very large number -- of homeowners who fill the garage with junk and park outdoors.
-- People can rent houses with garages.
-- Some homes have driveways or street parking and no garages.

However, I'd daresay about half of Model 3 owners never ever have a garage door or gate to go through. Possibly more.
Of course, everyone can just use the remote which came with their garage.

For the S/X removing it would be probably silly,
With 88% homeownership, it probably gets used by a much larger percentage of S/X owners than by 3 owners.

Tesla Owner Demographics by Age, Income, Gender, Home Value

but for the 3/Y, especially on the SR, this may actually not a terrible idea to both reduce costs and monetize a "lesser used" feature to a greater extent.

Emotionally this feels like a silly cost cutting move, and I bet their cost is nowhere near $300-labor for the unit, but it probably is a separate unit connected via a harness connector someplace, not embedded into any Tesla bespoke hardware, so installing it "aftermarket" should be trivial,
Yes, apparently. The harness connector is installed anyway apparently.

and the only production line change should be not installing it (versus switching to a different module and changing harnesses to use an external module and so on), plus of course a minor software change so that the car knows whether or not the device exists (so it doesn't throw errors if it would have, and hide the menu option since it's not there)

Everyone already has openers for their garages / gates / etc, so it's not like losing is crippling, though it does feel cheap to remove the feature by default, even if you don't have an immediate use for it.

I would be astonished if the module cost more than $50, and even at that price whomever is their supplier is ripping them off for what ought to be about $5-10 at most in parts all in (licensing fees and Homelink profiteering aside).

The wire harness is apparently still installed, just with no chip at the end of it.

I suspect that license fees and Homelink profiteering are the motivation here. I figure they probably are trying for a 25% margin on the aftermarket install (so $75 in profit), probably spend $100 in labor to install it, and are probably paying $125 for the chip & the associated license fees (which is what I expect the savings in production cost is).

If they develop their own clone of Homelink, it'll probably be at a price where it's sensible to make it standard with the car. But if they're buying it from a supplier, I figure they're essentially getting ripped off on license fees.

Of course they had to pay the licensing fees to use it when they designed the car. Homelink won an award for being new technology in 1997, so I'm guessing the patents date from around then and expired circa 2017. (Probably not precisely 2017.) This is probably a transitional thing, IMO; I suspect a licensing-free garage door opener system designed by Tesla will arrive in a future version of Model 3...

So probably half an hour job to install it at most, this should be something like a 200% margin add-on.

So I'm sort-of okay with this as an investor, but boy would I be annoyed as a customer. Sort of how I'm okay with all the price changes (though they should be less haphazard) and so on as an investor but I'm kind of annoyed with the fact that I now effectively paid "too much" for my LR 3 (though to be fair, with the timings of tax credits and uncertainty of backlogs and being able to buy a RWD LR so that I have the longest range 3 currently in existance... and this is Tesla and I knew it would happen eventually).

I'm actually sort of surprised there isn't already alternatives to the homelink solution. Nobody cares about the X-10 wireless support, almost nobody ever used that to do anything from their car and X-10 is a dead/dying standard (now if it could speak Insteon, Z-Wave, Zigbee, or something else modern, perhaps HTTP REST to a custom endpoint after connecting to your home wifi, that would be at least interesting), and universal replacement garage door remotes have existed forever that aren't "Homelink compatible". Perhaps the patents specifically call out integrating the RF device into the vehicle, blocking (until recently) anyone from doing even basic GDO functionality. Still, if the patents expired in 2017, there should have already been Chinese suppliers with fully tested devices ready to go the same day.

I believe there are practically no garages of the sort Homelink would open in China. Maybe the usual Chinese clone-makers just didn't bother to target Homelink, as a small and unimportant market which they didn't know much about?
 
And I think Tesla saw the Osborning problem in advance, planned Raven in advance... and then Raven was two or three months *late* in completion, which hurt. And probably required the discontinuation of the 75 (they'd run out of parts for it, perhaps).

There is a third road out of the hole: S is being Osborned and X isn't, so switch the mix from S to X. But X and S have separate body lines, so they have to merge those to do that (as originally planned). So they're taking that road too (according to what we've heard).
My guess is less that they ran out of parts specific to the 75 (other than the battery, which they have pretty direct control over supply of, they've not got many differences) but that they ran out of some common parts and decided to only sell the highest trims they could until Raven was ready to sell, to minimize the impact of the reduced production due to running out of parts. If Raven had been on time, they would have just updated the website one day and that would be it, no removal of trims even if temporary.

The body line merge is something I have expected / hoped for and although I haven't seen / heard anything to confirm it, it would be an obvious move not only due to the reduced (at least, for now) S demand but also to free space to build Y at Fremont. Although in the recent podcast, Elon didn't say anything about doing that, instead focusing on adding on to the side of the building, and repurposing existing parts storage areas... which may indicate that the S/X body line merge is being kept a secret, or it still isn't happening.
 
Here's a paragraph from my daily charts post I just had to share with a larger audience:

Also hurting TSLA today was a Bernstein note (CNBC version here) that basically said that nobody would want to pick up Tesla and that if Tesla went out of business life would get better for the European auto makers. This is the same kind of lame fear tactics and nonsense that Adam Jonas has been selling lately, but it's good for knocking a couple points off the stock price and so they do it. Here's a free piece of advice for the Bernstein analyst. Maybe, just maybe, one of those car companies that is going to be paying Tesla billions of dollars for EV credits might find some use for a positive cash-flow EV automaker with huge demand. Nah, let's not tell him and make him figure it out on his own.

That piece was absurd. I realize many times FUD articles are full of misinformation and ridiculous assumptions, but even by that standard it was off the chain. Emblematic of the times we live in.

I know it was posted a day or three earlier, but this book by Arthur C. Brooks is so timely:

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062883755/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i0
 
I didn’t get my front replaced, but expect 1/4th or 1/2 the price of other body shops (serious).

I am in the process of using the Tesla Body Shop in Queens to repair damage on my 3 due to sideswipe on highway. I am of the opinion that the price quoted which my insurance company did not quibble with (when was the last time you saw that?) is one fourth to one fifth what the Tesla Certified Body Shops I have dealt with in the past would have quoted. Fair warning though, they are still ramping their expertise and equipment and can only repair relatively minor damage for now.
 
Today's EV-CPO snapshot of inventory (I am not including used cars):

-- 35 Model 3 (19 US / 16 Canada)
-- 93 Model X (14 US / 51 Canada / 23 Europe / 5 Asia-Pacific)
-- 762 Model S (484 US / 73 Canada / 163 Europe / 42 Asia-Pacific)

Only 8 of the US Model S have the "adaptive" suspension. And none of the European or Canadian Model S.

So I'm pretty darn sure the rest of those Model S are pre-Raven. Tesla may have to discount and write down those to move them; maybe $8 million impact. Interestingly, pre-Raven Xes seem to have flown off the lot.
On May 19th they had 997 S. So, 230 down in 14 days. They may be down to very few at the end of the quarter. They can just keep them as loaners.
 
The point is not that it is 15k, but you can change the numbers by small amount to come up with COGS that are quite different and thus approximate rough calculations are not reliable.

If 20 kwh and a motor and needed electronics (and other differences) can all be done for 4K, it is not clear why the rest of the car would take $40k. Makes no sense.

The difference between SR+ and LR/AWD during Q1 was probably higher than 6K.

When they introduced the new, better, cheaper pack design the statement was that it would initially be used for SR+, and *eventually* for LR too. There's been a long period when SR+ was using an inherently cheaper pack design than LR/AWD.

I've found references to the Model S motor costing $3000. The front motor in Model 3 could easily cost $1500 - $2500, even being optimistic. The extra cells could easily cost $2500 at past prices, but the extra pack overhead would bring it up higher. (This will go away as the LRs are transitioned to the newer pack design.)
 
Future uncertainties such as "we have no idea how we are going to turn around this battleship and retrain all our ICE design engineering, manufacturing teams, dealer networks, marketing teams, service centers, parts centers to live in the BEV world so we better buy credits since we know in the future the battle ship will not have turned" ... :D i love it admitting they are on the horns of an innovators dilemma
And uncertainties like “a new administration may reinstate the Paris Climate Accord and limits will be nationwide”.
 
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On May 19th they had 997 S. So, 230 down in 14 days. They may be down to very few at the end of the quarter. They can just keep them as loaners.
I think they don't want to have old stock on the lot at all. I mean, it would make sense to me to allocate them as permanent service loaners, but they don't seem to have a policy to do that; I think they're going to get all of them delivered before end of quarter.

Another thing they could do is use them as internal service cars; I know they've modified some Model Ses as Mobile Service vehicles, and it might make sense to "buy their own stock" for this. However, I'd probably start by doing that with the used Model Ses which are more of a problem for Tesla and even harder to sell at a good price.
 
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56% of Model 3 owners own their own home.
Tesla Model 3 Demographics: Who Buys Model 3s by Age, Income:

This isn't a perfect correlation:
-- I know a lot -- I mean really a very large number -- of homeowners who fill the garage with junk and park outdoors.
-- People can rent houses with garages.
-- Some homes have driveways or street parking and no garages.

However, I'd daresay about half of Model 3 owners never ever have a garage door or gate to go through. Possibly more.
Of course, everyone can just use the remote which came with their garage.
Well, there's also plenty of people who might use it who live in apartments or other communities with GDO style gate openers, so it's probably more than just the home owners. My grandparents live in a lake side community with a front gate with PIN and RF entry (PIN for visitors, RF for them). They always park in their circle drive in front of the garage because it has stuff and old cars in it that never go anywhere. So they're in a home, with a garage, that they wouldn't park in, but would still have a use for a homelink type integration.

Also renters would usually get a GDO remote to operate the garage (my sister rents a house, has a GDO remote), unless the landlord is too cheap to even install a GDO (we have a house in our neighborhood, which is a decent upper middle class neighborhood, that is rented out and at some point the past when the GDO failed the landlord just removed it and didn't replace it, so the renters just leave the door open all day because they're too lazy to manually operate it when leaving and returning)
Of course they had to pay the licensing fees to use it when they designed the car. Homelink won an award for being new technology in 1997, so I'm guessing the patents date from around then and expired circa 2017. (Probably not precisely 2017.) This is probably a transitional thing, IMO; I suspect a licensing-free garage door opener system designed by Tesla will arrive in a future version of Model 3...

I believe there are practically no garages of the sort Homelink would open in China. Maybe the usual Chinese clone-makers just didn't bother to target Homelink, as a small and unimportant market which they didn't know much about?
Ah, patents are normally 17 years aren't they? So might have expired even earlier ...

Just did a google search for homelink patents and came up with this which may or may not be related (only homelink mention was in the non-patent references) but was filed in 2003 and expires in 2025 ("adjusted expiration") even though at one point several years ago apparently it was "Expired due to failure to pay maintenance fee". Patents... ugh.
 
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Why on earth are people bringing curbed wheels to tesla to deal with?
"This is utter nonsense."

You are probably confusing with curb rash. No, I said damage to the wheels due to curbing.

The problem is, what is visible is the damage to the wheels. But is there a damage elsewhere too? are the axles or whatever wachamacallit that connects to the wheel ok? What about the suspension?

Only Tesla can diagnose and say. And they have not even looked into that.
 
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