Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for the info. I haven’t had a chance to listen to that interview yet. How disappointing nobody even made a pretend effort.

Robert Bollinger sent Elon a tweet but never followed up:

Bollinger Motors on Twitter

 

[neroden]

Elon said on the Ride the Lightning podcast released last weekend that he had received zero inquiries from any other manufacturers about participating in the supercharger network

Someone needs to get Robert Bollinger a meeting with Musk, because Bollinger *has* enquired. Not aggressively enough I guess.

 

[MP3Mike]

Thats fine, the Chinese government does not equal the Chinese people. If you followed the carriers you would notice there has been a noticeable drop in average loading time for Chinese bound carriers.

But even if that is true what does it mean? Does it mean they are loading fewer cars? Does it mean that they have gotten more efficient at loading cars? Are they spending less idle time in port? Are they fueling faster? Maybe they are loading cars using advanced summon?

On the Q1 call Tesla said that they are now sending full ships. So they acknowledged that they weren't sending full ships in Q1, and they have been in Q2. That means more cars per ship so they don't need as many ships to get the same number of, or maybe even more, deliveries.

 

[Krugerrand]

You can go have a look yourself.

To China? Been there, done that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone needs to get Robert Bollinger a meeting with Musk, because Bollinger *has* enquired. Not aggressively enough I guess.

Yeah, or he could pick up the phone or send a letter. They still have those in silicon valley.

redFAy shadow-banned me on his blog shortly after my suggestion to Robert Bollinger in the comments section that he tweet Elon. Thus redFay cut that line of communication (for a unrelated selfish reason).

Still, its on Bollinger to follow up if he's serious about Supercharger access, not depend on some rando on the internet for business critical infrastructure.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

But even if that is true what does it mean? Does it mean they are loading fewer cars? Does it mean that they have gotten more efficient at loading cars? Are they spending less idle time in port? Are they fueling faster? Maybe they are loading cars using advanced summon?

On the Q1 call Tesla said that they are now sending full ships. So they acknowledged that they weren't sending full ships in Q1, and they have been in Q2. That means more cars per ship so they don't need as many ships to get the same number of, or maybe even more, deliveries.

I’d assume they are loading fewer cars to China.

The average number of days loading for EU bound ships has bumped up slightly, where as the average for China has gone down significantly.

I know what Kirkhorn said but so far there is no evidence for that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh, absolutely they would "stood on the shoulders of giants" -- they would have let others do the work, if others *had*.

Musk originally said -- you can dig this up -- that he knew the world was going to need to switch to electric cars, but he looked at the EV-1 and Toyota RAV4-EV (first generation) and so forth and figured the carmakers had it well in hand. Then he looked a few years later after they CRUSHED the electric cars and said "What?" and decided he had to fund an EV maker himself.

Musk's stayed out of buses precisely because there are quite a lot of companies making perfectly good electric buses and they are being purchased in large numbers. He went into Semis because that *was not* happening with semis,.

How is that him willing to stand on the shoulders of other OEMs?

It’s him assuming OEMs would do it but when they didn’t he did it himself. He certainly thought when he showed them how to make an EV that they’d help the transition.

He’s never been someone to stand on the shoulders of others in any of his businesses. To do so he’d have to relinquish control and that’s not in his nature as we well know.

 

[Krugerrand]

Robert Bollinger sent Elon a tweet but never followed up:

Bollinger Motors on Twitter

I remember that but I also remember there was a good amount of talk here about an established OEM possibly having approached him - BMW I think was the top of the list.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I remember that but I also remember there was a good amount of talk here about an established OEM possibly having approached him - BMW I think was the top of the list.

Never heard that. I know Bjorn Nyland posted a video of a BMW plugged into a European (CCS) Supercharger but of course not being able to complete the handshake and thus unable to start a charging session.

Do you have a link to the BMW discussion?

Cheers!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Okay, had my dad do some research on this Beijing deal.

1. As of 2019, all EVs in Beijing will be part of the lottery system in getting a plate, while in 2018 any EVs will receive a plate. The lottery system is it's own entity and does not compete within the ICE lottery system, which means the odds of getting a plate is greater.

2. EV plates only last for the duration of the car's life cycle..which is determined by the government. I can't find any data for Beijing but in Shanghai, the life of an EV is 8 years vs 10 years for ICE. This means after 8 years of owning the EV, it will need to be crushed (maybe reconditioned?). ICE gets the benefit of transferring their plate to a new car while EV owners will need to get a new plate.

3. EV owners can drive on Beijing road ANYTIME of the week vs ICE owners who can only drive every other day

4. Any EVs produced by an off brand, cheap brand, or brands that lack good quality control company will not qualify for plates ever.

5. Once the owner has an EV plate, they will no longer qualify for any ICE plates and will be barred from the ICE plate lottery system.

So the Tesla deal in Beijing is this.

3 years leased 0% interest free for LRs
A plate is included for the duration of the lease at no charge (according to Tesla is worth 20k yuan/year).

My dad's hunch is that Tesla made a local deal with the DMV and purchased a bunch of corporate plates for this advertisement. The plate and the car are still considered Tesla's since it's a lease. He also commented that barely anyone lease in China, but the ease of getting the ability to drive anytime of the week and not having to be in a lottery system for an EV plate is probably worth it. Also the life of the EV and its plate as mandated by the government is 8 years..so another thing to think about since owning an EV long term is probably not as economical as first thought.

Plates are extremely expensive to purchase 2nd hand in Beijing and not ideal since the seller of the plate is fully responsible for any car accidents the driver ends up committing in the court of law.

Based on item #4 above, how many brands other than Tesla will likely qualify? Even if it's only 60k vehicles a year, they could end up being almost all Teslas ... which is less than ideal (we'd love to sell them more, especially next year when the SR's start spitting out of GF3). Depending on the definition of "off brand, cheap brand, or brands that lack good quality control" many of the home grown EVs may never qualify.

Still, if it's really just 60k/year, that seems counter productive. Maybe they'll offer another lottery system where you can sacrifice your ICE license for an EV license, since converting ICE to EV should be their priority and limiting to 60k/yr isn't doing that. I wonder how these rules came about...

Similarly the 8 vs 10 year life span for EV vs ICE seems contrived, especially if they're limiting it to "better" brands which can expect a longer battery life.

This almost feels like a good idea (separate license plate lottery to encourage EV sales) that got hijacked by ICE interests (limited availability, limited brands which means limited affordability, limited lifetime which further means limited affordability...)

On the other hand, they have 8 years to decide to uncork the EV lifespan. The only real problem that's a problem now is the limited quantity per year.

 

[CorneliusXX]

We need to evacuate the Southern states.

do you want to send them north or south?

 

[Singuy]

Based on item #4 above, how many brands other than Tesla will likely qualify? Even if it's only 60k vehicles a year, they could end up being almost all Teslas ... which is less than ideal (we'd love to sell them more, especially next year when the SR's start spitting out of GF3). Depending on the definition of "off brand, cheap brand, or brands that lack good quality control" many of the home grown EVs may never qualify.

Still, if it's really just 60k/year, that seems counter productive. Maybe they'll offer another lottery system where you can sacrifice your ICE license for an EV license, since converting ICE to EV should be their priority and limiting to 60k/yr isn't doing that. I wonder how these rules came about...

Similarly the 8 vs 10 year life span for EV vs ICE seems contrived, especially if they're limiting it to "better" brands which can expect a longer battery life.

This almost feels like a good idea (separate license plate lottery to encourage EV sales) that got hijacked by ICE interests (limited availability, limited brands which means limited affordability, limited lifetime which further means limited affordability...)

On the other hand, they have 8 years to decide to uncork the EV lifespan. The only real problem that's a problem now is the limited quantity per year.

I believe "off brand" or "cheap brand" restrictions come in the form of cars built with stolen IP or simple designs that doesn't meet any kind of standard (Like a small company that put together a simple Frankenstein car). I am not 100% sure what it actually means since I don't live in China and my parents visit once a year...but based on how sometimes it's the wild west when it comes to stolen ips in China..I think this is to curb production of unqualified cars hitting the streets.

 

[hobbes]

Don´t know if this was discussed already while I slept:
https://electrek.co/2019/06/05/tesla-sales-high-bonuses-leak/
Looks like Fred got some inside information. Figured it is ok posting if he writes something we like, right?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

They removed this 10 years mandatory couple years ago. Due to the growth of second hand market. There’s a rule if your car can’t pass safety check each year or drive over 600k km, you have to scrap it somehow. But I believe it is a simple “fix” from second hand dealer.

Do you know then if the EV 8 year limit is also already gone? Or is there only a limited lifespan for EVs now?

 

[Singuy]

Do you know then if the EV 8 year limit is also already gone? Or is there only a limited lifespan for EVs now?

I'll have my dad look into this a little more and get you guys some sources. I am not sure the date on the post about Shanghai giving EVs a 8 year life span and Chinese policies change every other day so.

 

[Tslynk67]

I hope they ‘re serious about this.

Totally agree. I mean it's a bit in the "weird mobile" zone, but the original VX Microbus was the same.

I think it would be a huge hit.

I'm conflicted with VW. Obviously they've kill a lot of people and reduced all of our healthspans with their emissions cheating, but they seem to be the only major manufacturer making a push - on paper, at least.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Funny to see all these large companies joining their forces in order to build an EV or charging infrastructure etc. whereas Tesla is doing it all on its own.

Ya know. If that’s what it takes, more power to them. But if THAT doesn’t work, I don’t know what their path forward is.

I think that in order to understand their behavior we must heed the words of Arlo Guthrie:
... there was another pile of garbage. And we decided that one big pile is better than two little piles...

[from Alice's Restaurant of course: original soundtrack here, lyrics here]

 

[Tslynk67]

How is this FUD? He’s a bull. And he’s right. ASP of S/X is lower than last year and so are deliveries. Model 3 is just too good

Keep your eye on The Mission, Anthony. The goal is to transition the world away from dependence on fossil-fuels, not to make lots of profit.

You can argue that profit is necessary for this, but if we continue to follow a high-growth model then profits and fat shareholder profits might not necessarily follow.

Better for the planet to sell 1million M3 with 5% margin than 100k MS/X with 30%.

 

[Tslynk67]

The Lo Pez Dispenser is the worst.



Well OscarMeyer might be worse.


Actually, Charles Grant could be even worse.

So many choices...

Grant is as a-hole. He actively trolls other discussions on Twitter adding his uniformed BS. At least most of the others stick to writing their FUD and don't go stirring the pot elsewhere.

 

[Compton]

Don´t know if this was discussed already while I slept:
Tesla sales reach new high, offering bonuses to deliver this month - leaked info - Electrek
Looks like Fred got some inside information. Figured it is ok posting if he writes something we like, right?

I don't read rag newspapers out of principle even if they write something I like. Same applies to click baiting web sites and Fwed nowadays certainly writes what gives him the most clicks.