Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

His previous numbers were wrong and he has now corrected them (after the official numbers were published)

His reported shares shorted figures are estimates and sometimes they are wrong.

The 1.1% interest figure, up from 0.7%, should be a lot more accurate, as this is a number brokers are willing to share.

1.1% is still not nosebleed level, but suggests that 45m shares is probably the practical upper limit for the pool of shortable TSLA shares.

 

[bdy0627]

just had 6 profitable (yay!) trades hit their sell limits, so got bounced out of them, but all at a tidy profit. I now have power to deploy, but trying to catch the bottom. My gut says 210...

$210 should provide some support but I think it's likely we see a greater pullback. Nasdaq may be headed for a pullback as well.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Just bought 100 more at 211.

Just bought 40 at 212.71

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Mid-morning....lol

 

[jerry33]

3. Not having enough raw material is a big problem if he expect the Model Y to sell more than S3X combined, not to mention the pickup and cell hungry Semi. I am afraid that there will be another disconnect between what he is saying and reality later like the GAAP+ statement. All these products coming out in 2020, him guiding for 500k/year at shanghai just to find that there are only enough raw material for 200k/year.

I believe the guidance was for 120K/year for phase 1 of GF3. The other guidance was that eventually it should be able to produce more than 500K/year.

 

[AlexS]

I wonder if any short from 2013 is currently sitting in TSLA short position

 

[VValleyEV]

Google Broder. You might even be able to find the archived threads here.

Condensed version: This Broder guy from the NYT decided to journal his experience on a long distance drive in a Model S and it ran out of battery. He included a photo of the car being flat-bedded.

Front page news, EVs no good, SP took a beating, ugliness ensued.

But then the good stuff: Tesla pulled the logs on the car. Discovered he didn’t fully charge the car at his next to last stop, but still the car made it to the last set of SuperChargers. Instead of just plugging into them, he drove several times around the parking lot until the car did run out of battery.

A week or two? later a group of Model S owners gathered and recreated the guy’s route and drove it to prove that it could easily be done.

The NYT ended up sort of publicly admonishing the guy and sort of apologizing but the damage was done. We learnt quite a time later that that stunt cost Tesla several million dollars in sales at the time. A time when Tesla was still very vulnerable and the Model S was new to the market.

Thanks, I did totally miss all that drama from 2013 (NYT piece by John Broder about trip in Model S).

Here’s the apology piece by NYT, Elon replied by tweet that it restored his faith in the NYT:
Problems With Precision and Judgment, but Not Integrity, in Tesla Test
Excerpt: “I am convinced that he took on the test drive in good faith, and told the story as he experienced it. Did he use good judgment along the way? Not especially.”

Here’s a piece by the Atlantic pulling apart the log data that Elon published:
Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery
Interesting stuff, scroll down to “Argument #4”. They don’t find the data convincing that Broder drove around the supercharger parking lot to run the battery to zero, and I tend to agree with them. I also agree with the NYT retraction/apology.

BUT, here is IMHO the best and fairly recent piece about the whole long sad story of negative Tesla press:
From Broder To The 2018 Tesla Short Seller Storm To Today — What A Long, Strange Trip It's Been | CleanTechnica

———Punchline relevant here, from Zack Shahan’s CleanTechnica article—-
So, what ever happened to John Broder? I don’t recall seeing his coverage of Tesla after that. Well, after what I presume was good coverage of other topics, he eventually became an editor at the New York Times. “John M. Broder joined the editorial board at the start of 2018,” his profile there notes.

Interestingly, the New York Times has never come around and gotten positive about Tesla from what I’ve seen. In fact, reporters there covering Tesla are openly, blatantly, and I have to say often conspiratorially sliming Elon Musk on Twitter. One of our writers last summer called an article about a call with Elon Musk “the billion-dollar hit piece.” You could call it Broder × 10.
————————

 

[ninpb]

View attachment 418418
Like this quick charge

Don't you know that's the true goal if starlink, to control nature and create supercharger v ultimate.

 

[powertoold]

There's pretty much only positive news from the meeting. Stock "dives." Drives home point that there's little we can do about the major forces in the world. We just need to deliver cars, be profitable, and be "masters of our own destiny."

 

[ggr]

BTW., funniest ever product placement I saw was in the first "Jurassic Park" movie: there's at least 3 edited versions of the movie that are advertising the hardware and the OS used to control the theme park: "Silicon Graphics, Unix", "Thinking Machines, Unix" and "Microsoft, Windows NT" were all variants I've seen/heard, post-edited into the movie, as if it was an excited, authentic statement of one of the major movie characters, with the exact words depending on geographic region. (The true system used was probably Silicon Graphics/Irix, the rendering system du jour.)

I was sitting next to Ken Thompson (he was on Sabbatical in Sydney at the time) when that first came out and we saw it. "This is Unix, I can do this" is what my memory says. Ken was cool, no-one else in the movie theater understood it .

 

[ggr]

According to Ihor there are only around 48-49 million shares readily available to short. They've nearly run out..

Don't forget, the same share can be shorted multiple times. So while your arithmetic is correct, it can go past that limit.

 

[AlexS]

There's pretty much only positive news from the meeting. Stock "dives." Drives home point that there's little we can do about the major forces in the world. We just need to deliver cars, be profitable, and be "masters of our own destiny."

bear attack was predictable, just buy dips, sit back and enjoy the ride

 

[dc_h]

Hey twitter fans, noted clown and pump and dump man of the hour Jim Cramer was trying to taunt Elon into twitting back at him and calling Elon PT Barnum again. Please go out and provide Jim some feedback.
Clips to the John Stewart show of Jim manipulating the market, or just dump pictures of Jim looking like a clown. Who’s the real PT Barnum, the guy landing rockets and killing the EV and ICE competition or a tv charlatan?

 

[Drax7]

Amongst the False narratives to counter
EVs more polluting
EVs catching fire
EV range anxiety
EV competition coming
EV demand is weak
And on and on and on

Emphasize positives
Safest car
Low cost of ownership
Over the air improvements
Outperforming any Ev competition
Etc etc

Just the facts repeated ad nauseam and
Counter points to any false narrative.

There are very clever PR firms that could help
Combat the negative propaganda.
Some of them run political campaigns
And are well organized and even have their own war rooms.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's nuts that they are still piling on hoping for the stock to go down. That presentation was bullish AF in my opinion. I also really liked how Elon soft balled his normal sky high projections a bit around FSD and whatnot. Being optimistic is fine, but it's nice to hear that he is aware of how monumental that goal is. The model Y is going to sell like hotcakes. It will be rolling out at the perfect time, early minor Tesla bugs will have been worked out, massive fleet of Model 3s on the road making people familiar with the brand (network effect etc.) and the small SUV design will greatly appeal to women and families with small children, which are two groups I believe are very underrepresented among Tesla owners.

I can't resist buying a few more at this mornings dip. Nothing meaningful, but maybe I can earn beer money for the month.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Just re-read this famous outstanding post Elon Musk vs. Short sellers by @jesselivenomore

It is just more accurate than ever.

Really would love to hear more discussions from Jesse.

 

[VValleyEV]

Conversely, my understanding was that Tesla didn't offer great trade-in values, and the 63% coming from lower-end cars may be stretching into a Tesla.

Anecdotal evidence to the contrary: my trade-in experience was a pleasant surprise.

The trade-in quote for my Subaru Outback was a good “blue book” number, not a low-ball. The most astounding thing was that after I agreed to the deal, and then I forwarded all the data on my Subaru, they bumped up the trade-in allowance by about $1k. How many times has that ever happened at an ICE dealership?

I have heard that quotes for trading in your Tesla for a new one are not generous, and can believe it. But my experience in trading in an ICE car for a Tesla was an extremely good one.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This post received a bit of every type of feedback available. Made me think... like a good movie - some comedy mixed in with good drama and suspense. Hello! No lack of that with Tesla. The real movie will be awesome.

bear attack was predictable, just buy dips, sit back and enjoy the ride

I thought the same, but held all shares anyway thinking I'd kick myself for selling ANYTHING this low still.

 

[Driver Dave]

Thanks, I did totally miss all that drama from 2013 (NYT piece by John Broder about trip in Model S).

Here’s the apology piece by NYT, Elon replied by tweet that it restored his faith in the NYT:
Problems With Precision and Judgment, but Not Integrity, in Tesla Test
Excerpt: “I am convinced that he took on the test drive in good faith, and told the story as he experienced it. Did he use good judgment along the way? Not especially.”

Here’s a piece by the Atlantic pulling apart the log data that Elon published:
Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery
Interesting stuff, scroll down to “Argument #4”. They don’t find the data convincing that Broder drove around the supercharger parking lot to run the battery to zero, and I tend to agree with them. I also agree with the NYT retraction/apology.

BUT, here is IMHO the best and fairly recent piece about the whole long sad story of negative Tesla press:
From Broder To The 2018 Tesla Short Seller Storm To Today — What A Long, Strange Trip It's Been | CleanTechnica

———Punchline relevant here, from Zack Shahan’s CleanTechnica article—-
So, what ever happened to John Broder? I don’t recall seeing his coverage of Tesla after that. Well, after what I presume was good coverage of other topics, he eventually became an editor at the New York Times. “John M. Broder joined the editorial board at the start of 2018,” his profile there notes.

Interestingly, the New York Times has never come around and gotten positive about Tesla from what I’ve seen. In fact, reporters there covering Tesla are openly, blatantly, and I have to say often conspiratorially sliming Elon Musk on Twitter. One of our writers last summer called an article about a call with Elon Musk “the billion-dollar hit piece.” You could call it Broder × 10.
————————

For some reason, the New York Times never ever has actual real journalism on Tesla.

They just let this guy Neal E Boudette compile click bait articles and publish them as "reporting" in the business section.

I mean, is it right for a New York Times reporter to be contributing to TSLAQ twitter feed?

 

[Mike Smith]

Don't forget, the same share can be shorted multiple times. So while your arithmetic is correct, it can go past that limit.

How can the same share be shorted multiple times?