Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Joe F]

Induction charging does sound nice though even if it's only 11kw.

Wouldn't induce me to buy one.

 

[KarenRei]

Shoddy engineering. It's a cramped 2+2 that weighs 250kg more than a M3P. Range or performance isn't any better despite that massive battery.

Induction charging does sound nice though even if it's only 11kw.

Induction charging used to be the standard, but was abandoned. Where are you going to find an induction charger these days, apart from your own garage? Or maybe they're talking about far field wireless charging? Either way, you're talking lossier charging.

BTW, I guess I shouldn't be surprised (I had mentioned this possibility a while back), but this part was still news to me:

"By 2021 at the latest, peak charging power is set to increase from 250 to 350kW"

All those fast charge rates that they've been talking up? What they'll be releasing next year doesn't come with them - at best, they'll be osbourning themselves . Not that their 350kW rates (stated as "80% in 15 minutes") would be any faster than a 2017 Model 3 LR on a V3 Supercharger, due to their significantly worse efficiency and the fact that 80% on a Taycan will be 60% on the Model 3 LR (once you adjust NEDC->EPA), and Model 3 LR on V3 can do 60% in 15 minutes.

The article also claims that "The Taycan is the first EV that can be fed with up to 250kW at an 800-volt charging point" which is technically true, but only because of the "at an 800-volt charging point" caveat, since even 2017 Model 3s can do 250kW

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Who was the guy on here that used to constantly say that gas prices were going to skyrocket. It seems that gas prices will remain historically low for some time to come. I can't imagine what Tesla's sales would be if the national average for gas ever got back to the $4.00 level again (or $4 plus if adjusted for inflation). I tell people all the time that Tesla is one oil crisis from being one of the biggest car companies in the world. What bad luck that the world has seen historically low prices for several years now (probably longer than I recall in my entire life).

Texas Oil Boom...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I read a lot of stuff and I don't keep the links. All of them have been posted in this thread already. To be absolutely clear, this is a compilation of third hand rumors, and highly unreliable. All we know is that Musk fired a bunch of people in the Autopilot team, and the rumor is that he was unhappy with their pushback against Musk's timelines. But it's a poorly sourced rumor, so it could be totally false.

Has the ring of truth to it, though.

Call me a skeptic...or just overly optimistic, but I will assume that these firings are just normal turnover until I see solid proof otherwise. No doubt the autopilot team are under tremendous pressure to produce. That could wear thin on anyone.

Dan

 

[RFernatt]

There's only one way to resolve this impasse. Next earnings call we ask Elon if he's a dog person or a cat person.

Elon is obviously a cat person.

1. He has catitude. I think a tortie** is his feline spirit animal.
2. He doesn't care what you think (SEC or otherwise)
3. He would never be constrained by a leash (or Twitter nanny).
4. He'll go anywhere and any direction he damn well pleases (Neuralink, TBC).
5. He likes high places (SpaceX) and tunnels (TBC).
6. He can be quiet and then strike quickly when needed (Maxwell).
7. He's not constrained by schedule - things are subject to change frequently (AP).
8. He believes in fluidity and free catsflow.

If your glass is half empty, you need another cat.

** Study: Tortie cats’ ’tude is not your imagination
"Veterinarians from the University of California, Davis, have discovered, in recently published research, that cats with calico and tortoiseshell coat patterns tend to challenge their human companions more often than felines whose fur is less flashy."

 

[Christine69420]

Having a weekend cheer since I'm now in the money.

...

You definately know you stuff. And I think the Semi might be a Conehead!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Induction charging used to be the standard, but was abandoned. Where are you going to find an induction charger these days, apart from your own garage? Or maybe they're talking about far field wireless charging? Either way, you're talking lossier charging.

BTW, I guess I shouldn't be surprised (I had mentioned this possibility a while back), but this part was still news to me:

"By 2021 at the latest, peak charging power is set to increase from 250 to 350kW"

All those fast charge rates that they've been talking up? What they'll be releasing next year doesn't come with them - at best, they'll be osbourning themselves . Not that their 350kW rates (stated as "80% in 15 minutes") would be any faster than a 2017 Model 3 LR on a V3 Supercharger, due to their significantly worse efficiency and the fact that 80% on a Taycan will be 60% on the Model 3 LR (once you adjust NEDC->EPA), and Model 3 LR on V3 can do 60% in 15 minutes.

The article also claims that "The Taycan is the first EV that can be fed with up to 250kW at an 800-volt charging point" which is technically true, but only because of the "at an 800-volt charging point" caveat, since even 2017 Model 3s can do 250kW

As a side note, all this discussion over the past few years about needing faster and faster charge rates I think are overblown. After taking my first two road trips in my Model 3 in the last month I found that the charge rates I experienced (90-150 Kw) were more than sufficient for my travel needs. The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.). These faster and faster charge rates give me concern about the long term health of the battery. Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

Dan

 

[mongo]

Regarding Tesla and advertising, NXP has a Tesla on their front page as the graphic for Automotive. The sub page also has an S as the lead image.
NXP Semiconductors | Automotive, Security, IoT
Automotive | NXP

 

[winfield100]

Who was the guy on here that used to constantly say that gas prices were going to skyrocket. It seems that gas prices will remain historically low for some time to come. I can't imagine what Tesla's sales would be if the national average for gas ever got back to the $4.00 level again (or $4 plus if adjusted for inflation). I tell people all the time that Tesla is one oil crisis from being one of the biggest car companies in the world. What bad luck that the world has seen historically low prices for several years now (probably longer than I recall in my entire life).

Texas Oil Boom...

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

 

[KarenRei]

As a side note, all this discussion over the past few years about needing faster and faster charge rates I think are overblown. After taking my first two road trips in my Model 3 in the last month I found that the charge rates I experienced (90-150 Kw) were more than sufficient for my travel needs. The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.). These faster and faster charge rates give me concern about the long term health of the battery. Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

Dan

The issue is that regardless of whether it's justified or not, Porsche is trying to use these charge rates as a reason to get people to drop six figures on a car (in 2021) for something that a 2017 Model 3 can do today And in 2020 for something well slower than a Model 3 can do today.

New Model 3s in 2021 could well be even faster, even without a Supercharger upgrade - if the cells Tesla is using in 2021 don't call for as much of a taper as their current ones, then Tesla can just modify the charge curve to stay near 250kW for longer.

All issues of whether there's a point to such high charge rates aside

 

[Zaxxon]

As a side note, all this discussion over the past few years about needing faster and faster charge rates I think are overblown. After taking my first two road trips in my Model 3 in the last month I found that the charge rates I experienced (90-150 Kw) were more than sufficient for my travel needs. The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.). These faster and faster charge rates give me concern about the long term health of the battery. Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

Dan

Definitely. I haven't even done one since the 150 kW limit was introduced (starting one tomorrow!). Even at 120 kW it was ready before me most of the time. 250 kW will be plenty for virtually all scenarios. The issue they really should work on is ensuring that every stall is able to get the max charge (vs the current pairing problem).

What's that, you say? v3 addresses that issue, too?

Yeah, charging on road trips is a solved problem, at least for Teslas. Just build out that v3 network and we're done here.

 

[Don TLR]

I know a lot of people think Tesla should advertise.
In the last month how many Youtubers with 500K+ subscribers have purchased a Tesla and Raved about it. There's a lot of free advertisement right there, read down into the comments and see how many of those followers are stating they want one. The FUD rarely makes it there and or is diminished in value.

 

[FreqFlyer]

So there's this gushing "review" of the Taycan and I'm left wondering what a real review would read like. The writer is so obviously in love with anything Porsche that its clear he is completely blind to any shortcomings. What I've been able to parse out of it is that:

1. he likes that it is a Porsche
2. he likes the handling, but it was all qualitative. Not even a nod to how many g's it can take while cornering.
   
3. it is slow. The author goes on and on about how fast it is, but the turbo version he was in is apparently 0-60 in 3.2s. That is respectable... against the P90D. But it is restricted to launch mode, and ludicrous beats it both in performance and price. (116k USD vs 120k Euro; 2.4s vs 3.2s)
   
4. the range is unknown, but the author is confident that it far exceeds that of the Tesla Model S. Of course, they are careful to not quote EPA, WLPT or even NEDC ranges... which is pretty telling.
5. the driver is impressed that an EV with batteries loaded in the bottom of the car has a lower center of gravity than non-EV Porsches. What?
6. he likes the interior more than the Model S and the complicated controls located on the wheel. He glosses over the clumsy interface ("Like most recently launched MMI infotainment systems, the Taycan’s needs an in-depth introduction to unlock hidden skills.")
7. it will use the Audi A8 "autopilot" system once regulators approve it. Is this any good? I don't know anything about it.
8. author doesn't know how to drive an EV, hates single pedal driving. Apparently the regenerative braking is minimal or inefficient, its hard to tell from his description. Another possibility is that depressing the brake pedal causes the car to regen to limit then engage hydraulic.
9. it has a fake engine noise generator
10. despite all of the love, he is (forced?) to admit that the ride is "lumpy"
    
11. he likes that it is a Porsche

I get the impression that this is the EV for Porsche lovers. According to the reviewer it captures the driving experience of a Porsche (other than lumpy ride) and I get the impression this is seen as a car to take out driving or to the track -- not for commuting. For someone who wants a sunny day high performance EV that isn't a Tesla this looks like a good bet.

Interested in other impressions, but especially corrections to the above or links to more balanced reviews.

Porsche Taycan ride review: electric game-changer

edited to remove Tesla range comparison that on re-reading I could not find

Well, it is a Porsche (love the smell of that leather steering wheel). Get ready for tons of EV comparo articles from Motor Trend, Car and Driver, Road &Track, Autobild etc. with Porsche winning them based on the handling, again its a Porsche.

 

[MP3Mike]

Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

You can't control how fast DC charging is. And the charging providers really don't want you to since they want the turn-over to be as fast as possible. (As do the cars waiting in line behind you on holidays and other busy times.)

 

[kengchang]

Who was the guy on here that used to constantly say that gas prices were going to skyrocket. It seems that gas prices will remain historically low for some time to come. I can't imagine what Tesla's sales would be if the national average for gas ever got back to the $4.00 level again (or $4 plus if adjusted for inflation). I tell people all the time that Tesla is one oil crisis from being one of the biggest car companies in the world. What bad luck that the world has seen historically low prices for several years now (probably longer than I recall in my entire life).

Texas Oil Boom...

It's $4 in CA

 

[CyberDutchie]

The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.).

Yeah, and you’ll be paying idle fees while you try to finish your burger in a hurry...

 

[humbaba]

Well, it is a Porsche (love the smell of that leather steering wheel). Get ready for tons of EV comparo articles from Motor Trend, Car and Driver, Road &Track, Autobild etc. with Porsche winning them based on the handling, again its a Porsche.

I hear you. Since I have no basis for comparison, do you think the handling of a Porsche is superior to a Tesla? Or is it just brand loyalty?

For me, there's no need for Tesla to be the end-all of cars. If Porsche can make a compelling EV (which it sounds like the Taycan likely is, whether or not it is competitive with Tesla) that bests Tesla in at least one area I think that is a good. I really want there to be some competition in the EV space, not just compliance cars and some weak attempts to delay the inevitable.

Put another way, I think it will be a sad future if the only cars are S3XY. I love them, but I want variety.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

Low priced oil isn't an anomaly nor is it an accident. It is THE primary policy objective of the US government in its current incarnation. When the political will to spend so much capital on that objective wanes, gas prices are going to skyrocket.

 

[humbaba]

Yeah, and you’ll be paying idle fees while you try to finish your burger in a hurry...

There was apparently an issue with charging the M3 mid range at first because my charge rates were always slow (start at 60kW and go down from there) but at some point an update cleared the log jam and I get 120kW to start now. And, as you say, its too fast.

I get that the charging throughput needs to be higher to support more vehicles, but it actually makes the charging more awkward for the user. Race through eating or stop to go move the car. Automatic chargers with autonomous parking lot navigation would sort that out, but that's not here.

 

[Motor Mouth]

I hear you. Since I have no basis for comparison, do you think the handling of a Porsche is superior to a Tesla? Or is it just brand loyalty?

For me, there's no need for Tesla to be the end-all of cars. If Porsche can make a compelling EV (which it sounds like the Taycan likely is, whether or not it is competitive with Tesla) that bests Tesla in at least one area I think that is a good. I really want there to be some competition in the EV space, not just compliance cars and some weak attempts to delay the inevitable.

Put another way, I think it will be a sad future if the only cars are S3XY. I love them, but I want variety.

Completely agree with this. It would be poor form to complain about how slowly legacy makers are rolling out EVs and then complain when they do that it's not as good as an S, X, 3, etc. The more the merrier.