Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

"The Taycan accelerates from zero to 100 km/h in significantly less than 3.5 seconds. It has a range of more than 500 kilometres (according to the NEDC). The 800-V architecture in the vehicle guarantees that the lithium-ion battery can be recharged in just four minutes, providing enough energy to drive 100 kilometres (according to NEDC)."

320 miles would at best be NEDC (515km). That would make the WLTP range something like 410km and the EPA range something like 230mi. NEDC is a joke.

Yeah, my 2013S is down to 222 at 80%. And they will beat me to the next red light.

 

[mrmage]

So there's this gushing "review" of the Taycan and I'm left wondering what a real review would read like. The writer is so obviously in love with anything Porsche that its clear he is completely blind to any shortcomings. What I've been able to parse out of it is that:

1. he likes that it is a Porsche
2. he likes the handling, but it was all qualitative. Not even a nod to how many g's it can take while cornering.
   
3. it is slow. The author goes on and on about how fast it is, but the turbo version he was in is apparently 0-60 in 3.2s. That is respectable... against the P90D. But it is restricted to launch mode, and ludicrous beats it both in performance and price. (116k USD vs 120k Euro; 2.4s vs 3.2s)
   
4. the range is unknown, but the author is confident that it far exceeds that of the Tesla Model S. Of course, they are careful to not quote EPA, WLPT or even NEDC ranges... which is pretty telling.
5. the driver is impressed that an EV with batteries loaded in the bottom of the car has a lower center of gravity than non-EV Porsches. What?
6. he likes the interior more than the Model S and the complicated controls located on the wheel. He glosses over the clumsy interface ("Like most recently launched MMI infotainment systems, the Taycan’s needs an in-depth introduction to unlock hidden skills.")
7. it will use the Audi A8 "autopilot" system once regulators approve it. Is this any good? I don't know anything about it.
8. author doesn't know how to drive an EV, hates single pedal driving. Apparently the regenerative braking is minimal or inefficient, its hard to tell from his description. Another possibility is that depressing the brake pedal causes the car to regen to limit then engage hydraulic.
9. it has a fake engine noise generator
10. despite all of the love, he is (forced?) to admit that the ride is "lumpy"
    
11. he likes that it is a Porsche

I get the impression that this is the EV for Porsche lovers. According to the reviewer it captures the driving experience of a Porsche (other than lumpy ride) and I get the impression this is seen as a car to take out driving or to the track -- not for commuting. For someone who wants a sunny day high performance EV that isn't a Tesla this looks like a good bet.

Interested in other impressions, but especially corrections to the above or links to more balanced reviews.

Porsche Taycan ride review: electric game-changer

edited to remove Tesla range comparison that on re-reading I could not find

Sure, we’d all be disappointed if this were a Tesla, but it’s Porsche’s first mass production sports EV. For the driver, it might be his first time in an EV. In any case he’s a Porsche fan so he’s got every right to be enthusiastic.

We should not rain on his parade by pointing out that the specs are a half decade behind. Nor should we cause him trepidation over a “patchy” high power charging network that is sparser than waterholes in a desert.

We should show restraint by avoiding mention that “game changing” features were in another EV nearer a decade ago than now. We can offer hope to the reviewer, by hiding news that said EV already won car of all years in Motortrend.

We can be impressed that the Taycan is only somewhat more expensive despite its limitations. This is far improved over *much* more expensive with the same limitations.

We should show compersion, experiencing the wonder the reviewer must have felt, by imagining the year of our lord is 2014 when reading the article.

Yea, for we are gracious and magnanimous, and shall meticulously avoid any hint of condescension towards our less fortunate brethren.

Edit: The first paragraph was written sincerely, the others just some lighthearted fun.

 

[jerry33]

As a side note, all this discussion over the past few years about needing faster and faster charge rates I think are overblown. After taking my first two road trips in my Model 3 in the last month I found that the charge rates I experienced (90-150 Kw) were more than sufficient for my travel needs. The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.). These faster and faster charge rates give me concern about the long term health of the battery. Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

Dan

Not just you. I've found the same thing with my S. The only exception is when there is an SC gap (of which there are many in the central states).

 

[humbaba]

Sure, we’d all be disappointed if this were a Tesla, but it’s Porsche’s first mass production sports EV. For the driver, it might be his first time in an EV. In any case he’s a Porsche fan so he’s got every right to be enthusiastic.

We should not rain on his parade by pointing out that the specs are a half decade behind. Nor should we cause him trepidation over a “patchy” high power charging network that is sparser than waterholes in a desert.

We should show restraint by avoiding mention that “game changing” features were in another EV nearer a decade ago than now. We can offer hope to the reviewer, by hiding news that said EV already won car of all years in Motortrend.

We can be impressed that the Taycan is only somewhat more expensive despite its limitations. This is far improved over *much* more expensive with the same limitations.

We should show compersion, experiencing the wonder the reviewer must have felt, by imagining the year of our lord is 2014 when reading the article.

Yea, for we are gracious and magnanimous, and shall meticulously avoid any hint of condescension to our backwards brethren.

Oh, I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm trying to understand how good/bad the Taycan is. The problem with an uncritical review is that it doesn't tell you much and I want more.

And, if I got something wrong, I want to know. But I want all ICE off the road, like last decade. So if the Taycan sells more EVs then I'm all down with that.

 

[Stars aligned]

View attachment 428773

Here's Friday's expiring options. If the theory that the manipulations of TSLA right now are being done by the sellers of the call options (hedge funds that didn't delta-hedge), then the effort will be to keep TSLA from closing above 240. If that's not possible, it's even more important to the manipulators to see TSLA close below 242.50.

I think we're seeing more oddball strikes in popular use recently (242.50 calls, 222.50 puts) because the buyers of the options realize that the stock is indeed being manipulated and they're hoping to spread out the option strike prices somewhat.

When do the manipulations lessen? That timing, I suspect, will be when institutional investors and more cautious investors start buying again. The volumes will be going up, the buying by longs will result in buying by shorts to cover and as the stock price rises the market makers (most, at least) will be buying shares to delta-hedge their options sold. Media coverage will become less negative (except for WSJ, BusinessInsider, NYT, and L.A. Times). Let's hope that Q2 ER provides the catalyst to get the whole train in motion (phrase chosen for benefit of @neroden ).

My take is still that those who want to load up buy near-term / near-the-money options and exercise them. This is a perfect example, and as few are willing to sell (see volume), this is the route to take.

See also volume spike in 250 calls next Friday. Guess in a week we hover around this price point.

Highest volume for 26 July and 2 August are 335 calls. Someone betting on a price spike after quarterly report, I think.

Edit: the manipulation theory isn't correct anymore, I think. It ended when the SP was around 180. There isn't a lot of FUD, since, even AJ has been very tame. Big boys loaded up before and until AJ declared his 10$ worst scenario.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/12/investing/daimler-profit-warning/index.html

“Daimler (DDAIF) said Friday that it expects a second quarter loss of €1.6 billion ($1.8 billion), a dramatic decline from €2.6 billion ($2.9 billion) profit in the same period a year earlier.”

Excellent

 

[StealthP3D]

That's a lot of cash to poach Tesla coders. I wonder how much it costs to buy one Karpathy.

Without knowing how much of Karpathy's motivation is from material wealth and how much from getting a better "feather in his cap", I'll blindly assume it's mostly material wealth. In this case, all it would take is some nice stock options in the company he thinks will be the most successful. But let's assume he mostly wants a better "feather in his cap", in that case, all it would take is to convince him that your company is going to be the most successful (meaning to create the biggest change in the world).

Sometimes it's not as difficult as you think to attract the most talented people. Assuming you are Tesla.

 

[UncaNed]

.

As a side note, all this discussion over the past few years about needing faster and faster charge rates I think are overblown. After taking my first two road trips in my Model 3 in the last month I found that the charge rates I experienced (90-150 Kw) were more than sufficient for my travel needs. The car would regularly be done charging before we were done with our needs (bathroom, eating, shopping for snacks, etc.). These faster and faster charge rates give me concern about the long term health of the battery. Honestly, if I had access to 200-350 Kw charge speeds I would probably dial back the rate at which the car accepts the charge, (at least I think you can do that). Maybe that's just me though.

Dan

The marketing value of faster charging matters. I'd like to see Tesla beat the competition in that measure too. I get asked "How long to charge on a long trip?" way more often than anyone says anything about my great big 17" touchscreen.

CAN the charge rate at a supercharger be dialed back? That would probably be prudent unless all the chargers are taken. My X75D once charged at 324 MPH, which I didn't find necessary.

I also like that I COULD charge fast in an emergency... ESPECIALLY if future battery chemistry's can stand faster charging with less harm to themselves.

 

[mrmage]

Oh, I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I'm trying to understand how good/bad the Taycan is. The problem with an uncritical review is that it doesn't tell you much and I want more.

And, if I got something wrong, I want to know. But I want all ICE off the road, like last decade. So if the Taycan sells more EVs then I'm all down with that.

Didn’t mean to imply that at all. It was just an opportunity for some light satire and creative writing on my part.

 

[kbM3]

Definitely. I haven't even done one since the 150 kW limit was introduced (starting one tomorrow!). Even at 120 kW it was ready before me most of the time. 250 kW will be plenty for virtually all scenarios. The issue they really should work on is ensuring that every stall is able to get the max charge (vs the current pairing problem).

What's that, you say? v3 addresses that issue, too?

Yeah, charging on road trips is a solved problem, at least for Teslas. Just build out that v3 network and we're done here.

To be fair, the 250 kW charge rate for Tesla does not last very long. IF Porsche can pull off 0-80% charge in 15 minutes AND the efficiency is not too much poorer, they may win the crucial average miles(km) gained per minute of charging, which would be impressive.

My expected downside is that the Porsche will be very decontented for the base model and they will charge through the nose for options.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why do VW and Ford not get called out on “ridiculous timeline”, like Tesla?

Ford and VW don't pose a threat to the status quo like Tesla does.

 

[UncaNed]

You can't control how fast DC charging is. And the charging providers really don't want you to since they want the turn-over to be as fast as possible. (As do the cars waiting in line behind you on holidays and other busy times.)

I never supercharged yet when there weren't plenty of empty spaces.

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah, and you’ll be paying idle fees while you try to finish your burger in a hurry...

How soon till we can set Auto-Summon-Or-Something-Or-Other to pop the charge plug and auto park in a non-charger space so this never happens?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

To be fair, the 250 kW charge rate for Tesla does not last very long. IF Porsche can pull off 0-80% charge in 15 minutes AND the efficiency is not too much poorer, they may win the crucial average miles(km) gained per minute of charging, which would be impressive.

My expected downside is that the Porsche will be very decontented for the base model and they will charge through the nose for options.

Of course the big unknown here is what those high charge rates are going to do to the batteries over time. Heck, we don't even really know what the 150 Kw rates of the new Superchargers are going to do to Teslas. I will say this with all honesty, when I was pulling 600+ miles of charge per hour those cables got HOT. I mean REALLY hot. Like I could almost not hold them hot.

Dan

 

[canoemore]

Regarding that recently leaked email: Does anyone think the "upcoming developments" that Jerome Guillen thinks workers "will be delighted with" might have something to do with the "giant, giant, giant machine" he coyly mentioned in that Cleantechnica interview?

It would be exciting if we learned more details about this from the earnings letter/call.

 

[neroden]

“The collaboration could accelerate the deployment timetables of both carmakers, which have said they plan to put autonomous vehicles into operation in 2021.”

Why do VW and Ford not get called out on “ridiculous timeline”, like Tesla?

Maybe because everyone knows they're big liars? I dunno. That is a ridiculous timeline.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I never supercharged yet when there weren't plenty of empty spaces.

I have. It can be painful. The day before the last solar eclipse(in the US), we were headed back south from camping near Lassen. Had to wait more than 4 hours at the Corning Supercharger because everybody and their mom was headed to Oregon. Of course, that also made the news, so it's not a regular occurrence.

Thankfully, that was my only time ever waiting more than about 5 minutes for a charger to open up.

 

[KarenRei]

To be fair, the 250 kW charge rate for Tesla does not last very long. IF Porsche can pull off 0-80% charge in 15 minutes AND the efficiency is not too much poorer, they may win the crucial average miles(km) gained per minute of charging, which would be impressive.

As I just mentioned (with a link to a V3 charging session), a 2017 Model 3 LR can already charge to 60% (range equivalent to 80% on a Taycan) in 15 minutes. And remember, that 80% in 15 minutes is for the 2021 350kW Taycans, not the 2020 250kW Taycans.

 

[neroden]

Who was the guy on here that used to constantly say that gas prices were going to skyrocket. It seems that gas prices will remain historically low for some time to come. I can't imagine what Tesla's sales would be if the national average for gas ever got back to the $4.00 level again (or $4 plus if adjusted for inflation). I tell people all the time that Tesla is one oil crisis from being one of the biggest car companies in the world. What bad luck that the world has seen historically low prices for several years now (probably longer than I recall in my entire life).

Texas Oil Boom...

It's not bad luck; it was predicted by some. Go over to the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread. It's due to two things: electric vehicle adoption actually lowers gas prices (obviously), and there's a completely insane shale oil bubble (which, in retrospect, could probably have been predicted based on "oilman" psychology).

 

[SW2Fiddler]

He’s a chimera person.

You misspelled “Basilisk”

Yea, for we are gracious and magnanimous, and shall meticulously avoid any hint of condescension towards our less fortunate brethren.

I’m not above handing out participation trophies!