Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Not really.

...

A difficult to assess risk is just how far their adversaries are willing to go to try to stop or slow Tesla's progress.

Not really.

History shows that the extremely wealthy and powerful are willing to go extremely far to protect their wealth and power. The forces threatened by Tesla (and Elon's other companies) are indeed "well-funded beyond many peoples wildest imagination," as StealthP3D said. I expect the anti-Tesla campaign to get much worse.

We have seen media bias and distortion and blatant lies, government corruption, and stock market manipulation. As Tesla continues marching toward domination of transportation and energy, I expect we will see that campaign intensify, and be amplified by dirty tricks including sabotage and assassination.

What can TSLA investors do about it? Expect it. Don't panic when it comes. Be ready with dry powder when others panic.

 

[EVMeister]

I think all the pro traders are f***ing with retail. Just like today, crash pre market and then up.

Tomorrow? Rip pre market and then crash in the regular session. Book it!

You still confident with that prediction? I know the trading day isn't over yet, but...

 

[Hock1]

Not really.

History shows that the extremely wealthy and powerful are willing to go extremely far to protect their wealth and power. The forces threatened by Tesla (and Elon's other companies) are indeed "well-funded beyond many peoples wildest imagination," as StealthP3D said. I expect the anti-Tesla campaign to get much worse.

We have seen media bias and distortion and blatant lies, government corruption, and stock market manipulation. As Tesla continues marching toward domination of transportation and energy, I expect we will see that campaign intensify, and be amplified by dirty tricks including sabotage and assassination.

What can TSLA investors do about it? Expect it. Don't panic when it comes. Be ready with dry powder to buy more.

I would have hit "like" button, but I have more to say: I have been thinking this and have occasionally broached the subject here. As I have said before, the level of criminality that these people will go to is directly proportional to the financial pain they are experiencing. That unfortunately, includes actions you have described.

 

[MartinAustin]

Under what scenario is this not a breach of contract?

Under what scenario is this not off topic? This is the stock thread. Discussing the details of ONE PERSON'S SERVICE EXPERIENCE... should be in another thread

 

[TSLA Pilot]

It's such a hit or miss. That company that rents Teslas on youtube had their batteries good willed to him even though it was way beyond the warranty period, and here they give this guy such a hard time on a tire.

Actually, this is incorrect info.

The warranty on the battery for nearly all Model S's is 8-years, UNLIMITED miles.

The batteries on all of their cars are still under warranty, even as they approach 500,000 miles per car . . . .

 

[gluu]

Fantastic Video explaining advantages of the new wiring harness, also check the comments by Stacy Behrens.

One advantage I had not previously realized, the new wiring harness makes it easy to upgrade autopilot hardware.

 

[Antares Nebula]

You still confident with that prediction? I know the trading day isn't over yet, but...

Was pretty much joking. See my next post after that. I actually bought 237.50 calls this morning as a spec play (see my post in the trading thread). My general point is that the market is unpredictable at this point. Technicals, however, point to a short term double bottom (bullish). Trade at your own risk! Not advice.

 

[DragonWatch]

That’s not the takeaway. The takeaway is that AP + You is safer than You.

Note I edited down a re-quote of you to clarify my meaning.

At first I was just going to agree (thumbs up), but then I thought I should refer to the data being referenced.

I think enough stories exist, sad stories that is, where total reliance on autopilot results in fatalities or if lucky just a fire gutted Tesla.

My wife says it best, autopilot is like watching a teenager learn to drive. In worst case, a drunk teenager. Autonomous or autopilot driving is on the cutting edge or as my life has been on the bleeding edge of technology. As computers failed in the army, eyes were always on me instead of the equipment. Each time, thank my lucky astrology, it was the computers fault or missile guidance system instead of my leadership guidance package

We are not at the stage where autopilot can be engaged and we can fall asleep ~ just in the nick of time to apply lick and stick to our hair. If we do not apply the YOU/ME plus autopilot, then we are dealing with a drunk teenager

Sometime, hopefully during my remaining 30 years, the drunk teenager will graduate from AA and become the adult we he/she would become For now it needs to be more YOU/ME + Autopilot if you want to live to talk about it

 

[Doggydogworld]

Waymo is not running a driverless taxi service. It has human drivers in the vast majority of its cars, ….

Agreed. They missed their launch deadline and basically renamed their beta test program to save face. Let's agree to short sell all companies who miss deadlines

...and the few rides without a human driver have a human monitoring remotely from a desk ready to intervene. This is not scaleable,

What's not scalable about remote monitors? Start with one monitor per car, go to 1:2, 1:3 and eventually 1:20 or whatever. That's the definition of scaling. As opposed to "the fleet wakes up one morning", lol.

Operation costs are also far higher than Uber (even excluding safety driver costs), partly because of huge car depreciation from extremely expensive hardware.

Musk says Robotaxis are worth 200k each, but depreciating 10k of lidar destroys the economics? And don't give me this $75k per unit crap, you know better than that.

The ride experience is also subpar and has little above novelty value.

Not according to users.

The billions of miles of real driving experience is a requisite whether or not you have Lidar.

​

Unproven assertion.

Even billions of miles won't provide enough training data for all edge cases. You must have a fallback. A great fallback that engages once every 100k miles can beat a poor one that engages once every million.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I wonder how many people glance at this and think it's accidents per million miles? Usually this kind of data is presented so that lower is better.

Point well taken. Initially, I was one such mis-reader until I read it again.

 

[mrmage]

On topic, I notice that TSLA calls are kind of pricey, presumably because of all the volatility. I have more than enough unhedged TSLA shares in my long term hold portfolio, but have some cash to work with.

I’m thinking about writing covered calls for 5 or 6 mos out. If we’re range bound, selling 250 call strikes will yield about $20 or 15+% annually. If TSLA drops, I’ll own shares at about $210 at expiration, which is not bad because I can write calls on those or just hold a bit. And TSLA goes up, the return is equivalent to 35% annually. Seems like a can’t lose unless TSLA stays below $200 forever.

I could also write jan puts at $220 or 230 strike. That would net shares under $200 if TSLA drops, or return 15% on an annual basis if it doesn’t.

I’m leaning towards the covered calls because I’m obviously a TSLA bull and there’s more upside. Plus if TSLA goes up too much more, I won’t want to do either so I probably have one shot. Thoughts?

 

[Sunlight]

Not really.

History shows that the extremely wealthy and powerful are willing to go extremely far to protect their wealth and power. The forces threatened by Tesla (and Elon's other companies) are indeed "well-funded beyond many peoples wildest imagination," as StealthP3D said. I expect the anti-Tesla campaign to get much worse.

We have seen media bias and distortion and blatant lies, government corruption, and stock market manipulation. As Tesla continues marching toward domination of transportation and energy, I expect we will see that campaign intensify, and be amplified by dirty tricks including sabotage and assassination.

What can TSLA investors do about it? Expect it. Don't panic when it comes. Be ready with dry powder when others panic.

Sometimes I do seriously worry whether some dickhead who has been 'hurt' by Tesla or SpaceX doesn't resort to 'assassination' of Elon or some other pivotal person...…………..

Does anyone know what precautions Elon and co take? He seems to be often 'out there' and exposed.

What a grim world we live in now where this can be a legitimate concern - Trump whipping up his brainless army doesn't help....

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I moved a bunch of posts on service to the dedicated service thread. Have been doing that all day long, but it gets tiring. May switch to simply deleting them...

Service and communication (out of main)

 

[Nocturnal]

So dumb.
US says the Model 3 is not as safe at Tesla claims - CNN

40% of cars have a 5 star rating. The current rating system is a joke that is helping makers of less safe vehicles pretend to be safe. I left the ad text from BP here because of course that ad is on a Tesla article.

New York (CNN Business)A federal safety regulator demanded last fall that Tesla stop claiming the Model 3 is the safest car ever tested. But Tesla has stood by the claim.

Tesla says Model 3 occupants have "the lowest probability of injury of all cars the safety agency has ever tested." The claim is still on the company's website. But in a cease-and-desist letter dated October 17, 2018, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's chief counsel wrote to Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, saying it "is impossible to say based on the frontal crash results or overall vehicle scores whether the Model 3 is safer than other 5-Star rated vehicles."
The letter came to light this week after an exchange of letters and emails between NHTSA and Tesla executives starting last October and running through February of this year was posted on Plainsite, a legal transparency website. The documents were released under a Freedom of Information Act request. It was first reported by Bloomberg.
NHTSA's letter said this wasn't the first time Tesla has violated agency guidelines for using the federal crash test data in marketing or advertising. The regulator said it was referring Tesla to the Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Consumer Protection to investigate whether the company had engaged in unfair or deceptive acts.


Content by BP
What is the Dual Energy Challenge, and How Is India Pioneering Change?
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It is not clear from the documents if NHTSA or the FTC are pursuing action against Tesla at this time.
Tesla sent a response to that letter on October 31, 2018, standing by its analysis of NHTSA data.
"Tesla's statements are neither untrue nor misleading," said the letter sent to NHTSA from Tesla deputy general counsel Al Prescott. "To the contrary, Tesla has provided consumers with fair and objective information to compare the relative safety of vehicles having 5-star overall ratings."
The automaker says that 40% of cars now have 5-star safety ratings from NHTSA, so "it is more important than ever to help consumers differentiate."

Sometimes I do seriously worry whether some dickhead who has been 'hurt' by Tesla or SpaceX doesn't resort to 'assassination' of Elon or some other pivotal person...…………..

Does anyone know what precautions Elon and co take? He seems to be often 'out there' and exposed.

What a grim world we live in now where this can be a legitimate concern - Trump whipping up his brainless army doesn't help....

I'm sure he has solid private security. Don't all major CEOs and billionaire types? Or perhaps he will bust out an Ironman Mark IV deal if accosted. ​

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

On topic, I notice that TSLA calls are kind of pricey, presumably because of all the volatility. I have more than enough unhedged TSLA shares in my long term hold portfolio, but have some cash to work with.

I’m thinking about writing covered calls for 5 or 6 mos out. If we’re range bound, selling 250 call strikes will yield about $20 or 15+% annually. If TSLA drops, I’ll own shares at about $210 at expiration, which is not bad because I can write calls on those or just hold a bit. And TSLA goes up, the return is equivalent to 35% annually. Seems like a can’t lose unless TSLA stays below $200 forever.

I could also write jan puts at $220 or 230 strike. That would net shares under $200 if TSLA drops, or return 15% on an annual basis if it doesn’t.

I’m leaning towards the covered calls because I’m obviously a TSLA bull and there’s more upside. Plus if TSLA goes up too much more, I won’t want to do either so I probably have one shot. Thoughts?

I would think that for a TSLA bull it makes more sense to sell puts instead of calls.

 

[mrmage]

I would think that for a TSLA bull it makes more sense to sell puts instead of calls.

Covered calls seem to yield more if TSLA goes up, though. At least at current prices. If I sell puts, I still need to reserve the capital to buy, though 10% less than covered calls.

Can you/someone elaborate?

 

[dha]

I would think that for a TSLA bull it makes more sense to sell puts instead of calls.

Selling a cash-secured put has exactly the same risk / reward profile of buying stock and writing a covered call. It is essentially the same trade.

 

[willw64]

The covered call vs writing puts really not only depends on your view of the stock, but also as was stated above your ability and desire to buy the stock if it is put to you, how much you want to manage the covered call position (if at all), and there are also some potential interesting tax implications if are writing covered calls.

 

[willow_hiller]

Selling a cash-secured put has exactly the same risk / reward profile of buying stock and writing a covered call. It is essentially the same trade.

Would the risk of early exercise change this at all? If you're long cash and short put, and the put gets exercised you end up long stock. If you're long stock and short call, and the call gets exercised you end up long cash, right?

 

[willw64]

Selling a cash-secured put has exactly the same risk / reward profile of buying stock and writing a covered call. It is essentially the same trade.

The only really big difference in this interest rate environment, and a high vol stock such as TSLA, is that the interest or opportunity cost of holding cash in case you have to buy stock is going to be much worse than the yield enhancement you will get from taking in the call premium. Ultimately it depends on what the OP is hoping to accomplish.