Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I think they are frustrated that Tesla seems to not be acknowledging that they've done this and kept them in the dark about whether they're attempting to address it. Again, a Tesla communications issue.

Tesla has acknowledged it indirectly via WK057...

But I think a slow public response from Tesla is par for the course.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not that you have much of a choice if the current suit is certified as a class action. Of course you would be able to out out...

I understand their frustration but I think they are jumping the gun on a suit already. I don't think I have ever seen something go to class action this fast before.

You can bet the motivation is more to hurt Tesla than it is about any potential recovery. And to hurt Tesla there is not a moment to waste! LOL! If it were really about the money rather than the headlines, the lawyers would take their time getting their ducks in order for maximum profit. Class action suits are slow and tedious and attention to detail is required.

At least attention to detail used to be required. I was recently notified that a class action lawsuit had settled regarding the Equifax data breach. We had a choice of accepting an estimated $125 as compensation (exact amount depending upon how many class members chose the cash compensation) or receiving a few years of free credit monitoring that included some kind of identity theft insurance. We accepted the credit monitoring/insurance.

Here's the funny thing. The court approved this settlement knowing full well that there were around 147 million class members eligible for compensation and yet the cash pool Equifax had to cough up to cover all the cash settlements was only $31 million. If everyone chose the "up to" $125 cash option, they would get less than 25 cents each!

It appears the court was either corrupt or inept! Class action suits might not be what they once were (but the lawyers still like to feed at the trough). Apologies to any lawyers here but I think you know what I mean.

 

[anon]

This new class action lawsuit doesn't seem to have made the headlines yet. I wonder if/when the media will pick up on it?

 

[humbaba]

You can bet the motivation is more to hurt Tesla than it is about any potential recovery. And to hurt Tesla there is not a moment to waste! LOL! If it were really about the money rather than the headlines, the lawyers would take their time getting their ducks in order for maximum profit. Class action suits are slow and tedious and attention to detail is required.

At least attention to detail used to be required. I was recently notified that a class action lawsuit had settled regarding the Equifax data breach. We had a choice of accepting an estimated $125 as compensation (exact amount depending upon how many class members chose the cash compensation) or receiving a few years of free credit monitoring that included some kind of identity theft insurance. We accepted the credit monitoring/insurance.

Here's the funny thing. The court approved this settlement knowing full well that there were around 147 million class members eligible for compensation and yet the cash pool Equifax had to cough up to cover all the cash settlements was only $31 million. If everyone chose the "up to" $125 cash option, they would get less than 25 cents each!

It appears the court was either corrupt or inept! Class action suits might not be what they once were (but the lawyers still like to feed at the trough). Apologies to any lawyers here but I think you know what I mean.

You know what burns me up on it? The CEO knew about the breach before it was public and cashed out his stock. Naturally the internal investigation cleared him (and the other company officers who did the same) of any wrong doing.

What about the SEC though, surely they will punish such blatant insider trading? Nope, not a word.

But if they get whisper from certain quarters they unleash the dogs on Elon Musk.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Paranoia is an occupational hazard of security work so it can sometimes be difficult to separate real from perceived risk. That said, when I was just reviewing the threat renewables and EVs pose to oil interests I was reminded that Russia has a significant interest in oil[1] and has a penchant for killing when it suits them[2]. And, according to some, continued investment in oil production requires prices as low as $10/barrel in order to be profitable compared to renewables[3]. This puts quite a lot of pressure on net exporters of oil, particularly when it represents a significant fraction of their economy.

So they have the motivation and the means which makes them a credible threat. But would they target Elon Musk? Or a factory? Quite honestly, I think the "bang for your buck" in terms of sabotage would be higher with poisoning the work place, say GF1. Getting people to go to work in a place that has become hazardous to their health can be difficult. Getting Elon Musk would be a great bonus if it were timed right.

But Russia isn't the only one -- just perhaps the most sophisticated. Saudi Arabia recently demonstrated a willingness to brazenly murder a target they did not like in a manner that didn't give them any deniability. While they have very low oil production costs, they are also more dependent than Russia in the long term on obtaining revenue from oil. So while they may strategically support short term drops in prices[4], a sustained drop would be devastating until they can remove that dependency.[5]

So is it paranoid to be concerned with assassination or sabotage with murderous intent? Maybe. But I wish it seemed more farfetched.

1) How does the price of oil affect Russia's economy?
2) Novichok agent - Wikipedia
3)
4) Saudi Arabia and the Oil Price Collapse | Middle East Policy Council
5) Economy of Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia

Perhaps even more likely: Polonium 210.

Poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko - Wikipedia

Combines your assassination and contamination scenarios quite effectively.

 

[mrmage]

OT

It appears the court was either corrupt or inept!

They're not mutually exclusive.

I did the same math when I got the notice. Why does Equifax, which lost information that exposed most Americans to identity theft and potential financial losses, get dinged $31M while FB gets dinged $5B for leaking non-financial info? Not saying that FB was right, but I'm blown away that Equifax is 100 times less important.

 

[powertoold]

Perhaps even more likely: Polonium 210.

Poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko - Wikipedia

Combines your assassination and contamination scenarios quite effectively.

Kinda OT but I hope elon's security has beefed up lately. I ran into him in a bar 2 years ago, and he was by himself for a few minutes. Hard to believe I know

 

[ZeApelido]

We now have a year of Tesla Safety Reports.

My takeaway is don't drive during holidays or winter. Oh, and yeah, Teslas are much safer cars and autopilot is safer than me (at least on freeways).

MMiles/accident / Quarter                         Q3/18   Q4/18   Q1/19   Q2/19
Tesla w/ autopilot engaged                         3.34    2.91    2.87    3.27
Tesla w/ active safety but autopilot not engaged   1.92    1.58    1.76    2.19
Tesla w/out above (rest of fleet)                  2.02    1.25    1.26    1.41
NHTSA average                                      0.492   0.436   0.436u  0.498

"u" means NHTSA didn't update their data.

Tesla w/ autopilot engaged stats are useless without the right comparison. This is essentially a conditional probability.

A comparison of rates during highway driving only would be a more fair comparison.

 

[M3Rider]

Yea, there's a revolution brewing.

I keep thinking...once we get V10 with Netflix/Youtube support... I know, advanced summon- big party trick and all that...but say if you play some stuff in a parking lot, while waiting for someone and that's during dark hours with the screen well visible from the outside...

Wouldn't that make obvious to a passersby that their car is missing some important infortainment piece that goes along with 21st century?

 

[azaz]

disastrous über numbers bringing TSLA down

 

[Sparky4life]

Here's what my battery capacity looks like over 20,000 miles (Model 3, LR RWD, July 2018).

It was very stable until around the 10,000 mile mark (which corresponded to firmware version 2018.50.6). At that point I started seeing a ~5% variation in the max capacity, dropping as low as 294 miles on a full charge (I never got the bump to 325 for some reason) and recovering on it's own (no need to deep discharge or any other tricks). When I got 20.4 at around 17,000 miles it adopted a more stable pattern. Over the last 3,000 miles it has remained within 1% of 310. If it was physical battery degradation it would not recover, so I chalked it up to Tesla playing with the BMS algorithms.

 

[kengchang]

TSLAQ : Tesla structurally unprofitable

Uber : Hold my beer

 

[dano-oly]

Kinda OT but I hope elon's security has beefed up lately. I ran into him in a bar 2 years ago, and he was by himself for a few minutes.

Even more OT, but sounds like you need to finish the joke...

Back on topic (and sorry if it's been brought up before), virtually every day the AH price drops after close. How are people profiting from this?

 

[Tslynk67]

LOL. TOTALLY disagreed on the voice!

Must be an English thing, what, what?

 

[Tslynk67]

Normally Tesla (and other Li-ion) cells are charged to 4.2V when charged to maximum. Affected cars are not charged to 4.2 V but lower. So affected cars have lower real range.

So the one questions I have, "why?".

Is it for safety reasons? Is it to preserve the life of the battery (aka iPhone battery throttling), or is it just a software bug?

 

[kengchang]

So the one questions I have, "why?".

Is it for safety reasons? Is it to preserve the life of the battery (aka iPhone battery throttling), or is it just a software bug?

Mostly has to do with the fire in Shanghai and Hong Kong

 

[hobbes]

George Hotz alias geohot thinks Tesla will win the race to level 5 autonomous driving:
Lex Fridman on Twitter

Also fun to watch the whole interiew, quite amazing guy.

 

[Todd Burch]

Mostly has to do with the fire in Shanghai and Hong Kong

Yes. The (unconfirmed) theory is that dendrites formed, lengthened, and eventually caused a short within the cell that initiated the fire. I am not enough of a battery expert to know if this is likely, but it seems plausible.

 

[capster]

There are two aspects to this. First is neuroscience. Jeff Hawkins has published several peer reviewed papers. But it is too new to establish itself in the field as an accepted theory.

See various papers referenced in this article.

A Framework for Intelligence and Cortical Function Based on Grid Cells in the Neocortex​

As to what it means to ML in general is unknown. The ML community has largely ignored this until now. It has become common practice now to let researchers / labs get involved in commercializing their discoveries. Nothing wrong with this per se. Afterall people who push current NN also have a lot of commercial interests. But the basic observation that our brains behave very differently than NN is obvious
- You don't need a million pieces of data to learn new things
- You can do object recognition and learning at the same time
- etc

Whether it is their theory that explains the difference or something else remains to be seen.

There are solid arguments against Backpropagation artificial neural networks as models of actual brain function despite having come out of a Psychology Department (specifically the Cog Sci program at UCSD). Though Backprop is of course a powerful tool.

The gold standard of neurophysiogically plausible brain modeling is that of Stephen Grossberg mostly done in the Cognitive and Neural Systems Department (while it was around) at Boston University.

Grossberg's approach uses non-linear differential equations to describe neurons organized into layers of various topologies. The topologies are usually designed based on some neurophysiological correlates, i.e. the neuroanatomy of the relevant parts of the brain, as well as some target performance data. The target data, usually sets of psychophysical measurements or psychological observations, is simulated on a computer using numerical integration.

The approach has yielded compelling results in almost all areas of brain function: memory, cognition, vision, behavioral conditioning, motor control, rhythmic behaviors, ...

One of the simpler and more accessible models that will give a taste of the approach is the Vector Integration to Endpoint (VITE) model of Grossberg and Bullock. It shows how neurons might create the bell shaped velocity profile observed in, say, an arm reaching movement.

Grossberg produced with his numerous collaborators a very large body of work. One place to start is "Studies of Mind and Brain" (D. Reidel Publishing Co. 1982) though there are many later works as well.

It can be heavy sledding but worthwhile for those interested to see how much we already can replicate of human brain function including some its very sophisticated processes.

Tl;dr There is not a "Theory of Human Body Functioning," rather there is a set of interconnected complex systems to be understood.
Similarly, those seeking or touting a single overarching theory of brain functioning are generally early in their journey towards understanding what we know of the brain.

 

[capster]

Paranoia is an occupational hazard of security work so it can sometimes be difficult to separate real from perceived risk. That said, when I was just reviewing the threat renewables and EVs pose to oil interests I was reminded that Russia has a significant interest in oil[1] and has a penchant for killing when it suits them[2]. And, according to some, continued investment in oil production requires prices as low as $10/barrel in order to be profitable compared to renewables[3]. This puts quite a lot of pressure on net exporters of oil, particularly when it represents a significant fraction of their economy.

So they have the motivation and the means which makes them a credible threat. But would they target Elon Musk? Or a factory? Quite honestly, I think the "bang for your buck" in terms of sabotage would be higher with poisoning the work place, say GF1. Getting people to go to work in a place that has become hazardous to their health can be difficult. Getting Elon Musk would be a great bonus if it were timed right.

But Russia isn't the only one -- just perhaps the most sophisticated. Saudi Arabia recently demonstrated a willingness to brazenly murder a target they did not like in a manner that didn't give them any deniability. While they have very low oil production costs, they are also more dependent than Russia in the long term on obtaining revenue from oil. So while they may strategically support short term drops in prices[4], a sustained drop would be devastating until they can remove that dependency.[5]

So is it paranoid to be concerned with assassination or sabotage with murderous intent? Maybe. But I wish it seemed more farfetched.

1) How does the price of oil affect Russia's economy?
2) Novichok agent - Wikipedia
3) https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F
4) Saudi Arabia and the Oil Price Collapse | Middle East Policy Council
5) Economy of Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia

“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”― Edmund Burke