Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willw64]

Would the risk of early exercise change this at all? If you're long cash and short put, and the put gets exercised you end up long stock. If you're long stock and short call, and the call gets exercised you end up long cash, right?

Correct, you are long cash if you allow the call to be exercised. A lot of people who use covered call strategies, manage the calls and trade out of them for either gains or losses. If your view changes that there is more upside, and you don't want the stock called away, you can stay long the stock, defer taking a capital gain, buy back the call and take a loss.

 

[EVNow]

I looked into the "thousand brains" theory you referenced a couple of months ago and despite the bombastic claims, I found no peer reviewed article anywhere that would actually numerically examine how good this is at doing anything...

There are two aspects to this. First is neuroscience. Jeff Hawkins has published several peer reviewed papers. But it is too new to establish itself in the field as an accepted theory.

See various papers referenced in this article.

A Framework for Intelligence and Cortical Function Based on Grid Cells in the Neocortex​

So there's very little data supporting this theory, and it's all pushed by "Numenta"'s commercial interest (a private company selling this technology), so I'd take this with a grain of salt. I'm not saying it cannot be true, but I found no scientifically valid publications so far to evaluate it.

As to what it means to ML in general is unknown. The ML community has largely ignored this until now. It has become common practice now to let researchers / labs get involved in commercializing their discoveries. Nothing wrong with this per se. Afterall people who push current NN also have a lot of commercial interests. But the basic observation that our brains behave very differently than NN is obvious
- You don't need a million pieces of data to learn new things
- You can do object recognition and learning at the same time
- etc

Whether it is their theory that explains the difference or something else remains to be seen.

 

[Tslynk67]

Digitized the lawsuit's chart and added 0 to the Y axis (and fixed the X axis labels). It really shows a different story when the chart isn't deliberately misleading. Honestly, 217 miles of range at 138,000 miles on the ODO doesn't sound too bad to me. My guess is that the battery controller had not been adequately adjusting the maximum charge for real-world degradation (and thus overcharging some cells). The software fix just seems to have caught their reported maximum range up to where it should have been.

View attachment 439178

At the end of the day, it's an estimate of the battery's range, just that. I would bet it's the case that the actual range, for the same route and weather conditions, would be the same before and after the update. Has this been determined?

 

[Tslynk67]

That would be false.

LIDAR's ability to image is dependent upon the visible light from the laser making a round trip from the car to the target and back again. Vision-based cameras only need to see the object through a one way trip of the light. In other words, the distance that lidar provides reliable returns degrades much faster than vision in inclement conditions whether those conditions are due to fog, dust, snowflakes or smoke while vision-based systems degrade in line with the way human drivers deal with poor visibility. IE, in low visibility conditions, all cars need to slow down whether human or camera-based but cars that depend upon lidar will need to drop out sooner.

Lidar could theoretically overcome that by increasing the power output of the lasers but they are already at the regulated limit for use in areas where eye-safe brightness levels are mandated (which is everywhere that humans without laser safe goggles might be found).

I gave you the "like" for the use of the word, "inclement".

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Lagging the main indexes all day, and now suddenly outperforming them

 

[reardencode]

Somewhat OT:

I took our gascar in for an oil change today, and learned that our mechanic and his son both drive Model 3s for their primary vehicles, and love them. The other customer in the waiting area also wants a Tesla, because he recently bought a used 'Vette, and it's too noisy and too stinky for him.

Unfortunately I can add a bit of fire to the service issues crowd, because the mechanic also said that his got sideswiped and has been in the shop for 3 weeks waiting for parts.

Pretty sure this is strong evidence that Tesla (and BEVs) are going to win. He specifically said that his wife and he agreed that a Tesla was the perfect car for his future retirement because then he doesn't have to work on cars when he's retired.

 

[willw64]

no telling what the spike is about, but little things like the WaWa announcement puts another small chink in the armor of Tesla is Thearnos bear case. In my 25+ years of being a professional investor and now managing my own money, it is hard to recall a company, making a real product that is the center of such controversy/

 

[davecolene0606]

Not really.

History shows that the extremely wealthy and powerful are willing to go extremely far to protect their wealth and power. The forces threatened by Tesla (and Elon's other companies) are indeed "well-funded beyond many peoples wildest imagination," as StealthP3D said. I expect the anti-Tesla campaign to get much worse.

We have seen media bias and distortion and blatant lies, government corruption, and stock market manipulation. As Tesla continues marching toward domination of transportation and energy, I expect we will see that campaign intensify, and be amplified by dirty tricks including sabotage and assassination.

What can TSLA investors do about it? Expect it. Don't panic when it comes. Be ready with dry powder when others panic.

It will get worse until Tesla becomes Apple size (they’re still short in them) and/or the wealth finds a way to unload/unwind their positions in fossil fuel and related industries.

Fire Away!

 

[ggr]

Was pretty much joking. See my next post after that. I actually bought 237.50 calls this morning as a spec play (see my post in the trading thread). My general point is that the market is unpredictable at this point. Technicals, however, point to a short term double bottom (bullish). Trade at your own risk! Not advice.

Good call ;-)

 

[Tslynk67]

Fantastic Video explaining advantages of the new wiring harness, also check the comments by Stacy Behrens.

One advantage I had not previously realized, the new wiring harness makes it easy to upgrade autopilot hardware.

What a great video - and the girl has a fantastic narrative voice!

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA short sellers appear to be defending against a rise above the $240 level. Breaking above may be disastrous for them.

Meanwhile, you may want to check out my recent post in the Technical Analysis thread: TSLA Technical Analysis

 

[MP3Mike]

At the end of the day, it's an estimate of the battery's range, just that. I would bet it's the case that the actual range, for the same route and weather conditions, would be the same before and after the update. Has this been determined?

If what people are seeing is correct it is indeed a restriction on range, as the software update detects some condition in the battery and then software locks it such that when you charge to 100% it is actually only charging to 90%. WK057 has said that he thinks their detection code was faulty and detected something other than what they were trying to detect and that Tesla is working to correct it, but they may still want to take corrective action, likely different/less, on the condition they found but weren't looking for.

 

[humbaba]

Sometimes I do seriously worry whether some dickhead who has been 'hurt' by Tesla or SpaceX doesn't resort to 'assassination' of Elon or some other pivotal person...…………..

Does anyone know what precautions Elon and co take? He seems to be often 'out there' and exposed.

What a grim world we live in now where this can be a legitimate concern - Trump whipping up his brainless army doesn't help....

Paranoia is an occupational hazard of security work so it can sometimes be difficult to separate real from perceived risk. That said, when I was just reviewing the threat renewables and EVs pose to oil interests I was reminded that Russia has a significant interest in oil[1] and has a penchant for killing when it suits them[2]. And, according to some, continued investment in oil production requires prices as low as $10/barrel in order to be profitable compared to renewables[3]. This puts quite a lot of pressure on net exporters of oil, particularly when it represents a significant fraction of their economy.

So they have the motivation and the means which makes them a credible threat. But would they target Elon Musk? Or a factory? Quite honestly, I think the "bang for your buck" in terms of sabotage would be higher with poisoning the work place, say GF1. Getting people to go to work in a place that has become hazardous to their health can be difficult. Getting Elon Musk would be a great bonus if it were timed right.

But Russia isn't the only one -- just perhaps the most sophisticated. Saudi Arabia recently demonstrated a willingness to brazenly murder a target they did not like in a manner that didn't give them any deniability. While they have very low oil production costs, they are also more dependent than Russia in the long term on obtaining revenue from oil. So while they may strategically support short term drops in prices[4], a sustained drop would be devastating until they can remove that dependency.[5]

So is it paranoid to be concerned with assassination or sabotage with murderous intent? Maybe. But I wish it seemed more farfetched.

1) How does the price of oil affect Russia's economy?
2) Novichok agent - Wikipedia
3) https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F
4) Saudi Arabia and the Oil Price Collapse | Middle East Policy Council
5) Economy of Saudi Arabia - Wikipedia

 

[Tslynk67]

I would think that for a TSLA bull it makes more sense to sell puts instead of calls.

I'd love to sell puts, but as far as I can see, I need the money to cover them sitting in my account, and in that case, I'd rather just buy common shares as the upside is unlimited.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Somewhat OT:

I took our gascar in for an oil change today, and learned that our mechanic and his son both drive Model 3s for their primary vehicles, and love them. The other customer in the waiting area also wants a Tesla, because he recently bought a used 'Vette, and it's too noisy and too stinky for him.

Unfortunately I can add a bit of fire to the service issues crowd, because the mechanic also said that his got sideswiped and has been in the shop for 3 weeks waiting for parts.

Pretty sure this is strong evidence that Tesla (and BEVs) are going to win. He specifically said that his wife and he agreed that a Tesla was the perfect car for his future retirement because then he doesn't have to work on cars when he's retired.

Yea, there's a revolution brewing. My wife has been touting Tesla for the last 3 years to all the surgeons she works with. At first, they sort of made fun of the idea of buying an EV, and brushed her off. Then, she got a parking spot where all the surgeons park and they began to see her Model S. Suddenly they were asking about Tesla. Of course, there was always that one guy during her conversations with people about Tesla who would chime in - "better hope it doesn't catch on fire", "they'll be bankrupt in 6 months and your car will be worthless", "hope you have a long extension cord", and all the other stupidity we've all heard. But, she has continued to tell people about Tesla and answer questions. She said the conversations are starting to totally change. And, then this week, she got even better news - 2 of the surgeons are married. The husband was one of the ones asking a lot of questions. His wife was dead set against it (more about the money than it being electric). But, when my wife talked to her Monday morning, she said her and her husband had gone to the Tesla store while on vacation and test drove one - SHE was blown away. Both agreed that they wanted a Tesla ASAP and it was just a matter of deciding if they wanted an S or an X - or possibly both.

I told my wife to be sure they have our referral code, though I have no idea what the program is about these days (we've never had a referral before).

So, I really believe there is about to be a revolution - no a tsunami. People are starting to learn the truth about EVs and Tesla in particular. Obviously, there will be more bumps in the road, but I think it's about to get fun!

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

What a great video - and the girl has a fantastic narrative voice!

LOL. TOTALLY disagreed on the voice!

 

[Todd Burch]

If what people are seeing is correct it is indeed a restriction on range, as the software update detects some condition in the battery and then software locks it such that when you charge to 100% it is actually only charging to 90%. WK057 has said that he thinks their detection code was faulty and detected something other than what they were trying to detect and that Tesla is working to correct it, but they may still want to take corrective action, likely different/less, on the condition they found but weren't looking for.

This software cap has affected me. I've gone from a 90% charge of 228 to 214 over the course of just two months. However, I'm going to be reasonable and give Tesla some time to address the issue before leaping into a class action lawsuit .

It's not clear how many owners this might affect, how much it might affect their bottom line if they are forced to replace the packs, and what the resulting impact to TSLA might be. However, I don't think it will be a large impact, as it seems to be restricted to just some packs. Who knows if it will grow into a larger issue though.

 

[MP3Mike]

However, I'm going to be reasonable and give Tesla some time to address the issue before leaping into a class action lawsuit

Not that you have much of a choice if the current suit is certified as a class action. Of course you would be able to out out...

I understand their frustration but I think they are jumping the gun on a suit already. I don't think I have ever seen something go to class action this fast before.

 

[Matias]

At the end of the day, it's an estimate of the battery's range, just that. I would bet it's the case that the actual range, for the same route and weather conditions, would be the same before and after the update. Has this been determined?

Normally Tesla (and other Li-ion) cells are charged to 4.2V when charged to maximum. Affected cars are not charged to 4.2 V but lower. So affected cars have lower real range.

 

[Todd Burch]

Not that you have much of a choice if the current suit is certified as a class action. Of course you would be able to out out...

I understand their frustration but I think they are jumping the gun on a suit already. I don't think I have ever seen something go to class action this fast before.

I think they are frustrated that Tesla seems to not be acknowledging that they've done this and kept them in the dark about whether they're attempting to address it. Again, a Tesla communications issue.