Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

So you think Tesla's S Raven, P3D and a production car that is as fast as a formula 1 car is not good enough to convince people electric power dominates? Porsche is bringing nothing new to the table. Show me a car with a 300 mile range using a 50kwh pack and then we will talk.

The world is not missing any high performance EVs. It's missing a $50/kwh powerpack.

Don't forget that people are dumb.

 

[willow_hiller]

Don't forget that people are dumb.

An older fellow that sits across from me at work is a TSLA shareholder, but drives a BMW i3 and is shopping for an I-Pace... No explanation other than he's old and likes the traditional automaker brand names.

 

[JusRelax]

Well folks, I have a confession to make. For the past week I've been virtually non-existent on this forum because I had purchased four one-way tickets to Chicago for my family to pick up my (actually, my wife's) very first Tesla. I kept on telling myself that I would wait (and keep on waiting) until Tesla stock had skyrocketed, but could no longer wait it out and sold a chunk of my TSLA at $262 right before earnings. My family of four (a 3yr old daughter and a 1yr old son) took a 5-day road trip from Chicago to Los Angeles which we used as an opportunity to get familiar with the newest member of our family, a Model X 75D in Pearl White which we have affectionately named 'CloudX'. We even tried out spending one night inside CloudX (yes, our whole family of four), which wasn't 100% comfortable since we didn't even have a mattress and I had to sleep in the front passenger seat while my family slept in the back, but it's given us an idea of what can be done on future road trips.

I had extremely high expectations for CloudX, but she has outperformed even my lofty dreams. Autopilot in particular is a complete game-changer when it comes to road-tripping. Previous to CloudX, even the 3-4 hour drive to Las Vegas was a complete drain for me, but the drive from Chicago to Los Angeles never felt anywhere close to as exhausting.

20190810_085219

• JusRelax
• Aug 13, 2019

 

[Singuy]

The Model S still has some pitfalls when it comes to performance. Many people still point to overheating, can’t make it around Nuremberg, etc.

Even at 370 miles of range, there are still people who say they can get 500 in their gas car.

The Roadster is to prove that EVs are better than ICE with no exceptions.

With more sales comes higher volumes and hopefully lower battery prices.

We have found that going around in circles on a track is not what keeps people from buying EVs. Here are the things that are needed to convert ICE to EVs.

1. The price.
2. The software
3. The efficiency
4. The range
5. The infrastructure
6. Aesthetics

The model S/X solved 5/6 and sold 100k/year combined. The model 3 solved all 6 and are selling 100k/quarter.

Ipace has 1/6 and is dying
Etron has 1/6
Niro has 4/6
Porsche has..maybe 3/6?
Bolt has 3/6

There are plenty of evidence that if you don't have 6/6 today then there's no chance of your EV surviving vs a Tesla. So any company who doesn't strive for all 6/6 are not serious. The bias toward ICE is strong and it took a crap ton of mountain moving from Elon and the Tesla team to convince people to switch.

And if you are really good, make a 7th thing that even Tesla haven't thought of that makes your EV stands out. No, the 7th thing is not going around in a circle really fast.

 

[KSilver2000]

So you think Tesla's S Raven, P3D and a production car that is as fast as a formula 1 car

Am I missing something?
What production car is as fast as F1? Why isn’t F1 just using that production car then and save all that money in R&D?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The world is not missing any high performance EVs. It's missing a $50/kwh powerpack.

Okay, let's look forward then and make an informed estimate when this comes to pass:

• $111 / $50 = 2.22x improvement required
• Wright's Law @ 15% cost decrease for every doubling of production
• 1.15^5 = 2.31 so that's slightly less than 5 doublings
• 2 yrs per doubling, call that 10 years
• bty investor day is in Q12020, so
• call it by 2030 we'll have $50/KWh btys

That leaves us 20 years to retire the existing ICE fleet and still cut terrestrial transport emissions by 90% before 2050 (per IPCC guidance <1.5C). How's that?

HINT: We can do this.

Cheers!

P.S. Wright's Law is actually a little pessimistic at 15% cost reduction per doubling of production vs. the historic Industry Cost Curve for litium Ion batteries, which is 17% per yr over the last 30 years. So 1.17^4 = 2.19 which implies just 8 years to reach $50/KWh, which is 2028. Wanna bet against Elon?

 

[Singuy]

Am I missing something?
What production car is as fast as F1? Why isn’t F1 just using that production car then and save all that money in R&D?

F1 is still faster at 0-60 1.6 sec vs 1.9 for a roadster. Roadster with rocket boosters may change this and of course can't be used to race formula 1. Also F1 cars doesn't need all the safety features either.

 

[elasalle]

Negotiations going Well.
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Tweet
Negotiations Break Down
China Devalues Currency
Currency Manipulator
RMB pegged around 7 -
Fed cannot cut rates further for now
10 Yr Treasury yields almost less than 2 Yr
US recession ...
Back to tariff delays ...
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.
Wait for another Tweet ...

+ Anyone who can time this will be $$$$

 

[RobStark]

of course they did, or at least that was the intent. have you ever in your life heard a car company advertise as a feature that their performance car can run 30 quarter mile sprints in a row? When was the last time ANYONE EVER ON EARTH ran 30 uninterupted 0-200kph sprints?

Never, because ICEv all have equally fast refuels and high performance ICEv don't suffer limp modes from 0-200kph sprints.There is no differentiation therefore no need for this testing.

And there have never been two ultra high performance BEVs from several different companies in the same price range.

Once Taycan is out in the wild it will be thoroughly tested and flogged and compared to current Model S Performance and Model 3 Performance. 0-60, 1/4 mile, top seeds, Nurburgring, and cannonball runs.

Nowhere to hide. The Truth will come out.

 

[kbM3]

We have found that going around in circles on a track is not what keeps people from buying EVs. Here are the things that are needed to convert ICE to EVs.

1. The price.
2. The software
3. The efficiency
4. The range
5. The infrastructure
6. Aesthetics

The model S/X solved 5/6 and sold 100k/year combined. The model 3 solved all 6 and are selling 100k/quarter.

Ipace has 1/6 and is dying
Etron has 1/6
Niro has 4/6
Porsche has..maybe 3/6?
Bolt has 3/6

There are plenty of evidence that if you don't have 6/6 today then there's no chance of your EV surviving vs a Tesla. So any company who doesn't strive for all 6/6 are not serious. The bias toward ICE is strong and it took a crap ton of mountain moving from Elon and the Tesla team to convince people to switch.

And if you are really good, make a 7th thing that even Tesla haven't thought of that makes your EV stands out. No, the 7th thing is not going around in a circle really fast.

I believe #5 (infrastructure) is the most critical after obviously #2 (price)

I.e. if there were as many charging stations as gas pumps and they could refill as quickly, it would already be game over in the $40k+ segment., even if range was only 200 miles.

As it is, more education is needed and more people who have access to either home or workplace charging should realize infrastructure only really comes into play during road trips.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Too bad this type of di*k measuring contest goes against the point of EVs. You pollute a whole lot putting a 200kwh battery pack into a car that's just dead weight 95% of the time when a 300-400 mile car is more than enough for everyday use.

Unless, of course, you build and power that 200kWh entirely on solar/wind/hydro. In that case, it pollutes exactly as much as a super efficient city car with an 80-mile battery capacity.

 

[jerry33]

Unless, of course, you build and power that 200kWh entirely on solar/wind/hydro. In that case, it pollutes exactly as much as a super efficient city car with an 80-mile battery capacity.

There are some people who equate large battery with production pollution and so every time a long range is implied, they go on the offensive about how no one needs a longer range. This despite the number one question asked by those who don't have an EV is "how far will it go on a charge", and if that amount is less than their current car, it's game over for converting them.

 

[Singuy]

Unless, of course, you build and power that 200kWh entirely on solar/wind/hydro. In that case, it pollutes exactly as much as a super efficient city car with an 80-mile battery capacity.

You still pollute 2x-4x vs yourself if you can put 4 50kwh packs into 4 cars vs one car at 200kwh.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I figured this fire thing would just be a blip on the SP. (Preaching to the choir here...) My sense is a Tesla crash with fire has little impact on the SP, but an unexplained explosion or a fatal crash while on AP still grabs the headlines, and for a different reason - it's something new and unfamiliar. NASA and the world paid attention when the astronauts burned in the Apollo capsule - that was new. Exploding rockets (or a car fire), not so much.

Google images search below on "Car Fire". Find the Tesla (OK, there's one). Who knows, maybe the last skeptic looks at this and gets it. Better yet, maybe they already know. So any stock movement from a fire is on a hunch that others will respond (but aren't). This is a good trend.

 

[Nocturnal]

There are some people who equate large battery with production pollution and so every time a long range is implied, they go on the offensive about how no one needs a longer range. This despite the number one question asked by those who don't have an EV is "how far will it go on a charge", and if that amount is less than their current car, it's game over for converting them.

Yes, people think/say that but it simply isn't rational. If I can save 2k a year in fuel costs then I'm an idiot to not do that just because my twice a year trip will require an extra couple hours of charging. Basic opportunity cost calculation. Changing this line of thinking is what needs to happen.

To be clear I'm not saying that we don't need/want a longer range in our EVs, but that the current options are superior when viewed rationally for the vast majority of owners.

 

[jerry33]

Yes, people think/say that but it simply isn't rational. If I can save 2k a year in fuel costs then I'm an idiot to not do that just because my twice a year trip will require an extra couple hours of charging. Basic opportunity cost calculation. Changing this line of thinking is what needs to happen.

This is just not going to happen until EVs are the normal car and there is a lot more infrastructure (e.g. state highways are covered). Until then you can think of it as a necessary evil for the mission to succeed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You still pollute 2x-4x vs yourself if you can put 4 50kwh packs into 4 cars vs one car at 200kwh.

Not if the new owner of that 200 KWh Tesla buys it instead of that new Maybach he was thinking about buying... Hint: he'll only buy the best.

 

[MP3Mike]

Never, because ICEv all have equally fast refuels and high performance ICEv don't suffer limp modes from 0-200kph sprints.There is no differentiation therefore no need for this testing.

OT, but: Tell that to the ICEv owners that put bags of ice on their engines between sprints/drag race runs to get better times/performance...

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT: just reached a new intraday high: $235.02 which is 'zactly 1 penny above Friday's close. GREEENNN...

 

[Nocturnal]

This is just not going to happen until EVs are the normal car and there is a lot more infrastructure (e.g. state highways are covered). Until then you can think of it as a necessary evil for the mission to succeed.

Maybe. I've talked to many people on that issue and people seem to at least somewhat agree after thinking about it. I do wonder how many that don't listen would just pick another reason not to go EV if we waved a wand and had 500 miles of range.

OT, but: Tell that to the ICEv owners that put bags of ice on their engines between sprints/drag race runs to get better times/performance...

C7 vettes come to mind. Lots of heat problems there.

I think others mentioned this but the Taycan is defensive. It won't steal Tesla buyers but keep Porsche guys from leaving. ​