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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah I know. Which is why I said too soon to tell. What will GF3 be doing? What will US market be doing? What will global economy be doing?
Elon said rough quarter but that could mean a lot. This could be him simply acknowledging the variables I listed above plus more that I obviously do not know about and not wanting to go on record as to what the quarter should look like. Which makes sense.
Unless global demand really does falter, it is not unreasonable to expect a shot at a record for deliveries in Q1 2020. It will be all about GF3. Does Tesla China deliver 20K in 1Q? Would you not expect a record global quarter at that point in deliveries? Think Elon is focusing on Q1 profits with that statement more than anything else.
Or am I all over the place?
Fred's source said that, with one day to go, they were a few thousand short of the goal, not of 100k deliveries. Sure, the goal could have been 100k deliveries, but it could also have been record deliveries.
97k. I'll take it. Nun demandz!
Wind doesn't suck. My state is at about 40% wind energy now. The people I work with on the generation side of the business are very bullish on wind. Four years ago they indicated that wind was at cost parity with fossil fuels before incentives.Wind sucks. Solar plus storage rocks. Greenies should be pushing Nuclear though if they believe in the CAGW theory. It is the only way currently to decarbonize the world economy within 10 years. Although, solar/battery is coming close. Of course, there is that little radioactive storage issue....
I do have a TSLA related question though: Since Elon says that Tesla solar panels are like "printing money", why does Tesla make and charge 7000 battery packs per week using regular grid? Serious question, not trolling.
A sample size of 10 cars isn't useful at all. Do you want to start looking up the MASSIVE recalls other makers have done for car fires?
Fred, is that you?
OK, I will mention that your sources were correct. Just let me know ahead of time next time when your sources are really correct, and not just playing. Thanks!
To be honest, I would much rather have 17K S/X with 97K deliveries than 14K S/X with 100K deliveries. The latter would have destroyed any possibility of a profit in Q3 and would indicated a very severe weakness in S/X in future quarters.
ZachF
Active Member
Was hoping for six digits, but S&X is higher than I expected
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
$2000 isn't that much.
If there was another EV that was close to being a model 3 and was $7500 cheaper (due to tax) then model 3 sales would go down.
Currently I don't see any such car on the horizon.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, now your arguments are devolving to plain old concern trolling and lying:
- Elon wrote that in a confidential email to top sales staff. This was clearly not a company wide email, the full text of the email was never leaked, nor did anyone else but Fred report on it, which would be the case if this was a company-wide email. There's also no reason to inform rank-and-file employees of very sensitive global delivery goals and update them about progress. Only higher level employees would generally need to know such details.
- Either a high level sales employee at Tesla or a third party who hacked Tesla's email system and pretends to Fred to be a Tesla insider leaked part of Elon's confidential email to Fred. Breaking NDA's, federal laws, state laws and various securities laws by doing so.
- What Elon wrote in that confidential email was not "guidance", not even close to it. The only guidance Tesla gave is that they'd produce and deliver more cars than in Q2, which they did, and they overachieved spectacularly by setting new records.
- Tesla also has issued 2019 guidance of delivering 360k-400k units, which they have a fair chance of reaching if they deliver just 8k more (+9%) units in Q4 - their historically strongest quarter.
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Tesla is ramping up production and sales. China GF about ready to go. Demand strong, even for S/X.
All good.
In terms of Musk giving accurate guidance, he is very much on track. He either exceeds the 360k guidance or comes within 1% or so of doing it. And very few analysts gave him a prayer of hitting that guidance when it was first made.
I continue to believe TSLA’s market cap is substantially underpriced by the market. Eventually, the big money will start to smell the upside.
All good.
In terms of Musk giving accurate guidance, he is very much on track. He either exceeds the 360k guidance or comes within 1% or so of doing it. And very few analysts gave him a prayer of hitting that guidance when it was first made.
I continue to believe TSLA’s market cap is substantially underpriced by the market. Eventually, the big money will start to smell the upside.
I don’t think expiring tax credits have a great impact any more to.
1. As you point out, it’s almost nothing (for S and X buyers).
2. Tesla has been providing discounts in one form or another near the EOQ that is even greater than the tax credit.
3. Tesla has been offsetting loss of tax credits through repricing of cars and options. (Although, that could be coincidental with their long term pricing strategy, and nothing to do with tax credits).
Sure. But they need to have been closer to actually hitting that number when that email went out. 3k down means either the trend in deliveries changed significantly after that email went out, or Elon was overly optimistic. I know which version sounds more plausible to me. And even if Elon didn’t send that email with the intention of it leaking (which is now fairly obvious), he must be naive to think there isn’t a chance it will.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Ok all you stock historians...
Has there ever been a company that has had a record quarter both in production and deliveries and their stock immediately tanks? I honestly don't know. Seems counterintuitive to me.
Ah well, that's TSLA for ya!
Dan
Has there ever been a company that has had a record quarter both in production and deliveries and their stock immediately tanks? I honestly don't know. Seems counterintuitive to me.
Ah well, that's TSLA for ya!
Dan
Wasn't that after the SP dropped ~10% because 'Tesla China' is going bankrupt?
Yep. Just ridiculous.
Well, tomorrow will see the people betting on some huge number of deliveries bail. We'll then later see the actual effects of showing that demand once again didn't collapse, reconfirmation that orders remain in excess, production grew, S&X held strong, etc etc.
A caveat: This is after-hours that we're looking at. The market during trading hours is different, and may interpret it better or worse than the after-hours traders are.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So not a bad estimate from Factset for 2019Q3, well within the rounding error from Tesla's delivery numbers of 97,000.
ZachF
Active Member
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