FactSet was 97k last Wednesday. It's since risen to this 98k to 99k number.
Is it a miss or is it just manipulation?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Is it a miss or is it just manipulation?
So, for the year - 255,200 cars sold. 2017 was 103,020. Tesla is on pace for 3.5x - 3.9x cars sold increase over 2 years (based on their lower/upper bound guidance).
Meanwhile, the stock has dropped from 355 -> ...243 (as of today) for a 31% drop.
1. 3.5x - 3.9x increase in sales [1]
2. 31% drop in stock price [2]
[1] Tesla: vehicle deliveries by quarter 2019 | Statista
[2] Tesla - Stock Price History | TSLA
Meanwhile, the stock has dropped from 355 -> ...243 (as of today) for a 31% drop.
1. 3.5x - 3.9x increase in sales [1]
2. 31% drop in stock price [2]
[1] Tesla: vehicle deliveries by quarter 2019 | Statista
[2] Tesla - Stock Price History | TSLA
sundaymorning
Active Member
Someone from Tesla needs to sue this mofo. Not joking
97k is a very round number. and Tesla agrees "In the third quarter, we achieved record production of 96,155 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 97,000 vehicles."
I expect a different number in the Q3 report.
I expect a different number in the Q3 report.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Other highlights:
- "In addition, we achieved record net orders in Q3 and are entering Q4 with an increase in our order backlog."
- "As was also the case in Q2, nearly all of our Model 3 orders were received from customers who did not previously hold a reservation, solidifying the transition to generating strong organic demand."
- "We are continuing to focus on increasing production to meet that demand."
Once China reaches 3k/week that's a combined production rate of 10.4k/week.
Q1 2020 will not be a record quarter. Elon already warned us it'll be a rough quarter last ER call. So don't go blaming Tesla and Elon again.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I disagree. That was a solid report even if it wasn't solid enough to cause a nice rally. And I've said it before but the real action will come with the quarterly financials and related discussion in three weeks.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Hopefully it’ll be 97,001 cars delivered and not 96,999; otherwise, hold onto your seatbelts because we’ll get hammered with another $12 drop whipping out billions in market cap
Indeed. Trading Tesla shares based on minor deviations from quarterly delivery expectations is ludicrous. The true value of Tesla is what it can accomplish while in the process of innovatively disrupting established industries over the next several years. Much of today's after hours trading is undoubtedly due to algobots that were programmed to react to the delivery report, and have not been programmed to consider future potential. I'd expect human (especially institutional) traders to adjust for this tomorrow.
Scare quotes? Really? Did you also use them the times when leaked emails have been damaging?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think Musk was talking about the balance sheet in Q1, not so much deliveries. It was said in the context of profitability because Tesla will have significant expenses with the ramp of China production. But, yeah, Q1 is typically the weakest quarter for auto sales across the industry, this is expected.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Does anybody want to mention that Fred's sources was right and Tesla was a few thousand units short of 100k deliveries?
In case you weren’t around, Musk himself said Q1 will be rough.
That's only 105k. 7k more. Even with no improvements at Fremont - and remember, production increased over the course of this quarter, so it's already at a higher baseline - that'd be a bit over 500/wk average at GF3. I don't think they'll have any trouble at all.
Agreed. It's been nice watching European S/X deliveries switching from overwhelmingly inventory to overwhelmingly Raven.
Again, bad for FCF, but good for net income.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
It should go without saying but, yeah, the possibility that Tesla "punked" Fred obviously didn't happen.
Any product (whether it’s a car, a smartphone, or a jar of pickles) which is used not according — or even contrary — to the instructions provided by the manufacturer has an increased chance of failing. Nothing that I’ve seen online in terms of the behaviour of cars on Advanced Summon gave me pause. Some of the choices of owners of $40k - $100k cars in what they try to do with those cars, however, did. We are an entitled society currently, we hate taking responsibility for our own actions and we love to complain even when the fault is entirely ours.
Pras
Member
It seems that we have reached peak model 3 production rate from Fremont. Any push from here should anyway be on Model Y.
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