Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[T3slaOwner]

This post feels like it could be from any year after 2015.

That's probably true since no major auto maker has said they would have significant EV models until 2022 or so. So it has been true and will continue to be true until they produce the cars.

 

[EVNow]

The poster who made his prediction early in the quarter was more accurate than all but one who made predictions late in the quarter. Go figure (or pay attention to DDW).

Yes - my earlier prediction was 98k. I updated to 101k on 30th. Same with Q1, my earlier predictions were quite accurate. If I had stuck to that - and played options accordingly - I'd have not lost a lot a ton of money on options.

Ofcourse if I had stuck to my earlier predictions in Q2, they would have been (somewhat) worse. Predicted 88k, moved to ~91k.

 

[brian45011]

They don't count these expenses until they begin production of actual customer cars. Even then, they depreciate the upfront cost of the land, building, equipment and tooling over many years.

Can't depreciate land. Ground lease is slightly different but don't think expensing rent requires production. Kudos on your delivery and production predictions.

 

[Krugerrand]

That "games"? The auto makers give the people what they want same as every other manufacturer (by that I mean what sells). What you call "games" is how the dealers get people to buy cars. That won't change either since it sells cars too.

People have always had choices. In the 70s they chose Japanese cars because of their reliability even though they were not the lowest price. The fallout improved quality in every car made anywhere since with the exception perhaps of the Yugo. Tesla will have an impact on what EVs are made and how well they work, but the Big Iron automakers will show them a thing or two when it comes to giving the public what they want.

I drove a model S loaner the other day and realized it was still a great car even without the performance package or even the dual motors. 90% of the stuff people rave about with Teslas aren't going to be in most of the EVs ultimately sold. Why dual motors? Why the uber-fancy console?

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers. I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do. The truly successful EV makers will be the ones that sell an EV Corolla at the same price as a gas Corolla. In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

You’re ridiculous too.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Oh dear. We are back to this nonsense that the big auto companies know exactly how to build a car as good as a tesla, but have (for mysterious reasons) decided to let tesla have a five year head start and grab market share and a reputation before they finally decide to waltz in and crush them?
This is laughable. If any car company on earth could make a real model 3 competitor at model 3 prices without losing money on each car, they would already be doing it.
Amazingly they are not, because all the smart pro-EV engineers have decided they want to (shock horror!) work for the company dedicated to pure EVs and sustainable energy rather than the dieselgate mob whose CEOs are busily trying to avoid prison sentences for lying and wrecking the environment...

 

[KarenRei]

That's why the 4 hour requirement. I don't know anyone who wants to drive more than a tank of gas without food. No, not true, I know people who travel on energy bars and coke/coffee. Not me, I want a real meal with no rush. An hour is good.

For the vast majority of the world, an hour to "fill up" is distinctly not good.

And to reiterate: the market has spoken.

What market. There's virtually no choices.

Almost every manufacturer offers at least one EV today. Most offer multiple EVs now. You can go out and buy EVs from almost anyone. Yet consumers overwhelmingly choose Tesla. Now why do you think that is?

Why?

What about their EV attempts thusfar has given you cause to think that they have any knack whatsoever at bringing their EVs' production costs relative to their stats? If anything, they're only falling further behind.

Because they haven't actually attempted to provide anything to the market.

Except that they literally have. Over and over. We've been hearing about the imminent "Tesla killers" coming out, dozens of them, over and over for the past decade. And when each one comes out, what does it turn out to be?

But oh no, next time, they'll surely mean it! Their attempts so far are only bad because they don't care, that's surely why Forget that they've been spending spending billions of dollars to make these flops.

Look at their efficiencies compared to Tesla. Ranges compared to Tesla. Charge times compared to Tesla. Performance compared to Tesla. Margins compared to Tesla. After billions of dollars of investment, this is all they have to show. It's not some sort of "lack of trying"; they literally cannot keep up.

Just like when GM built the EV1 and ended up crushing them all. They made them for their own reasons

They did not "make them for their own reasons"; they made them because CARB forced them to.

Several of them have said they will have multiple models out in 2022 which in aggregate will be more than what Tesla has

Selling a few hundred thousand cars is not dominating the market

It very much is dominating the EV market.

It doesn't matter how much capacity you have on-hand for making ICE engines and transmissions when the topic is the EV market. Wherein the issue at hand is how much battery capacity you have, drive unit capacity, your powertrain efficiency, your battery tech, etc etc.

 

[T3slaOwner]

You may not want a car that looks like one from a Sci Fi movie from the 50s. But I DO !
That's why I got a model 3 !

I was actually referring to some of the projections of the Tesla truck. The model 3 is pretty vanilla other than the missing grill which makes it look more like a Karmann Ghia.

I guess I forgot about the Ghia mustache. How many 3s have those wide whitewalls?

Wouldn't this be rad with a 50 kW battery and even just one electric motor?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So Joseph Osha thinks demand growth for Tesla cars could be 'leveling off'. Apparently he is unaware that...

Apparently can't read either: From the Investor's Letter

Tesla Q3 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

"In addition, we achieved record net orders in Q3 and are entering Q4 with an increase in our order backlog."​

This "reporter" is counting on the laziness of people unconcerned with facts, but content with a narrative.

Let me guess: this story did NOT contain a link to Tesla's letter which negates this narrative?

 

[KSilver2000]

Can't depreciate land. Ground lease is slightly different but don't think expensing rent requires production. Kudos on your delivery and production predictions.

Probably not in Tesla's case with GF3. (maybe?)
But, land can be depreciated if there are natural resources (ie. for farming, mining, sand, gravel, oil, etc.) that get depleted from it. Then the depletion method for depreciation is used.

 

[M3Rider]

I was actually referring to some of the projections of the Tesla truck. The model 3 is pretty vanilla other than the missing grill which makes it look more like a Karmann Ghia.

I guess I forgot about the Ghia mustache. How many 3s have those wide whitewalls?

You came to the wrong place to advocate for big iron tesla killers. Also, mother Russia could be speaking German right now without the economic help from America. Enjoy the troll factory while it lasts.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What you call "games" is how the dealers get people to buy cars. That won't change either since it sells cars too.

I don't even know how to respond to something this nauseating. The people have been given online purchasing with set prices and ain't going back....we're not even gonna have dealerships within 24-60 months.

In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

Long, short, fan, legacy adversary.....NOBODY has this as a sincere thought in their head. Can we just ban these obvious trolls?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Also, mother Russia could be speaking German right now without the economic help from America.

That's not really fair. 27 million Soviets also died so YOU wouldn't be speaking German right now.

 

[Maitri982]

Completely agree. The Y will not make any money in the first couple of production quarters as volumes ramp and fixed costs crush per unit margins.

This aligns with my prediction of Q1 launch of Y and musk saying q3 will rock next year.

 

[T3slaOwner]

Oh dear. We are back to this nonsense that the big auto companies know exactly how to build a car as good as a tesla, but have (for mysterious reasons) decided to let tesla have a five year head start and grab market share and a reputation before they finally decide to waltz in and crush them?
This is laughable. If any car company on earth could make a real model 3 competitor at model 3 prices without losing money on each car, they would already be doing it.
Amazingly they are not, because all the smart pro-EV engineers have decided they want to (shock horror!) work for the company dedicated to pure EVs and sustainable energy rather than the dieselgate mob whose CEOs are busily trying to avoid prison sentences for lying and wrecking the environment...

You mean the company that has the highest executive turnover anyone has seen?

The facts are that while there can be new pardigms in the market, the big players always adjust. Literally this is a market where small competitors just don't have the muscle to continue to compete year after year.

As to your hyperbole, I don't know of any automaker who has talked of crushing Tesla up until now. What I am talking about is the future. The Big Iron companies are not incentivized to toss everything they are making, but in the face of the facts they will do so. They had to recreate themselves when the Japanese showed them how to build quality cars. They are already on the road to that now with EVs. 2022 they will have models out, by 2025 they will be swamping the market with them.

BTW, dieselgate was one company... not the industry. Meanwhile Musk has been in trouble with the SEC and again with labor laws. See, he is learning from the rest of the industry! Very well it seems. Maybe the student has surpassed the teachers in this regard. He still won't be selling tens of millions of Teslas by 2025... unless... maybe he can tender an offer to buy GM? I'm sure he can get "funding secured".

 

[T3slaOwner]

That's not really fair. 27 million Soviets also died so YOU wouldn't be speaking German right now.

Actually, you are more right than he is. It is very unlikely Germany would have defeated Russia even without US help on the western front. By the same token Germany tried to win an unwinnable war by building vastly superior weapons since they knew they couldn't build larger quantities. Didn't work. Likewise Tesla won't be able to introduce as many models as the rest of the industry. In a few more years the industry will be swamping the market with dozens of models to choose from. How many will want 500 horsepower rather than cup holders?

 

[EVMeister]

I've resited the ignore button, because this is genuine entertainment.

I also think anybody who thinks the Model 3 looks "boring", "vanilla" or "plain" simply needs to get over their grille obsession. Then they can appreciate the sleek aerodynamic styling and grace of the vehicle. I can spot Teslas a mile off, I know some people are just too unobservant and set in their ways to appreciate such things.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well I can tell you that when my family road trips, we stop at every Supercharger along the way, which tends to be 1 - 2 hours drive. Why? Because someone needs to pee!

4 hours without stopping, are you serious?

I note that my Jan 2021 650’s are up 35% today, happy about that, but can’t understand why!

Edit: had enough of the BS, ignored...

Max Pain $240 still - I can imagine quite some bets made on the delivery report...

 

[powertoold]

Tesla killer is coming guys, est 2015.

The FUDsters will continue to drum their demand and Tesla killer concerns, since it's something they can continue doing for years and years until it eventually comes true, then they'll say I told you so!

 

[Unpilot]

The competition will be out in two, three years.

I seem to have heard this before...Anton is that you?

 

[EVMeister]

Tesla killer is coming guys, est 2015.

The FUDsters will continue to drum their demand and Tesla killer concerns, since it's something they can continue doing for years and years until it eventually comes true, then they'll say I told you so!

Yah. The only vehicle that's going to give the Model 3 a run for its money will be the Model Y. Or a new improved Model 3. The fact that others still can't catch up to what Tesla has had for many years really speaks volumes. Tesla has a battery and technology lead of many years according to some analysts, are people expecting Tesla to just stop innovating and wait for others to leapfrog them?