Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Tesla’s Model Y Is Coming. Elon Musk May Have Hyped It Too Much.

clickbait title, so here's a quote:

What is that quote/ article referencing?
“Elon has bulls excited by implying the Model Y could achieve 1.1 million units,” wrote Spak. “He has also indicated the Model Y market is 2.5 times larger than Model 3 though our analysis suggests the market opportunity for Model Y is closer to 1.5 times Model 3.”

Q2 earnings call: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

But the story for Tesla future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y and I think like my guess is like long-term sales of anything a couple of years, I think. The demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like in the order of 0.75 million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million per year for Model Y and combined like it's maybe 2 million from those two vehicles and then S/X is like may be 80,000 to 100,000 a year.

1.25 /0.75 = 1.6x higher for Y.

 

[Todd Burch]

Do not worry! The NASDAQ's entire market cap is only valued at $7T. With Elon owning 20% of TSLA and 50% of SpaceX, both with a CAGR of 1.48x it'll only be 15 yrs until Elon has enough wealth to buy the NASDAQ, and delete it.

Cheers!

I hope he stays focused on deleting the NASDAQ. I was super-pissed last Sunday when he made Fortnite disappear.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

BUY to close TSLA 190524 250 PUT option 3x @ 24.5
Loss 4500$ factored in buy below
and

BOUGHT 300 shrs TSLA @225.25

no guts, no glory

With the stock showing momentum into 3Q earnings Wednesday, I am taking profits and putting on a hedge. TSLA has been positive for the last 6 trading days.

I will be watching for commentary during the ER conference call on progress in the ramp up activity of the Shanghai factory and its path to profitability and focus on the lower-margin Model 3.

However, earnings should matter less than free cash flow. As volumes ramp I want to see less dependency on capital markets to fund growth.


Tesla needs to put up a strong report to keep the momentum going.

The biggest challenges ahead is whether it can turn a profit and achieve its full-year target for vehicle deliveries.

SOLD 300 shrs TSLA @258.50
and
SOLD 3 TSLA 191025 250 Puts @ $7.50

Net stock Profit $5475 ($9975 - $4500).
Adding 21.17 free tsla stock to long account.

 

[SteveG3]

Could they extend the cab on the CyberPickup into a CyberSUV?

basically something priced below the Model X.

that’s what I’ve had in mind. I don’t know about pricing, but differentiated as a rugged truck based SUV capable of carrying 8 adults in contrast to a polished luxury SUV (the X). this would also diversify risk somewhat of what’s being invested in the new platform by having two different products/use cases to appeal to if the design is really innovative.

that tweet a few days back re a personnel carrier made me a bit more optimistic on this... the comment fits more with a truck based SUV than the pickup itself.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Could they extend the cab on the CyberPickup into a CyberSUV?

basically something priced below the Model X.

Exactly - bring back the Bronco/Blazer style, only streamline now. Would be really cool!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Here I am spending my hard earned money installing solar, buying EV's, and converting house to all electric. Then someone does something like above and makes a mockery of all our efforts.

Exactly why individuals can’t save the planet. Govt on side is essential.

 

[Cyrusis]

Anti-Tesla articles have been reaching an all time high... I wonder why.

 

[LJS22]

Anti-Tesla articles have been reaching an all time high... I wonder why.

Yea and it seems to slip their memory that Tesla is sitting on $5 billion + in cash currently. Just read an article on INC that said Tesla is desperate to raise cash.


“Or, Tesla just needs the cash.

I believe it's most likely a combination of the two. Tesla recognizes that there's plenty of demand for its cars, but it's having a hard time making money off that demand. It's hard to predict exactly how much of an increase in revenue Tesla might see from these changes, but the company has to find some creative ways to generate cash.“
Elon Musk Has a Plan to Make Tesla Profitable by Raising Prices and Making It Harder to Change Your Mind

how hard is it to look up vertical integration? Or that Tesla already raised cash.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Re: One more thing at Pickup event.

1) I think the Pickup is going to be massive in size. It could be a "smaller", more normal looking pickup will be the one more thing.

2). Model Y deliveries happen at the event.

3). A Model S comes into parking lot having just completed a autonomous coast-to-coast trip. First version of Nav on Surface streets is released that night.

Man I love your thinking but the pragmatist in me thinks it is a bit over the top.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Exactly - bring back the Bronco/Blazer style, only streamline now. Would be really cool!

If they do they have to replace white with another color. Just sayin'

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Also don't forget all those FSD deposits can be claimed as sales income, as soon as the software has been pushed
Now that is some change - Cha Ching

 

[humbaba]

If you need a good laugh you could do worse than Is Ford's Charging Network a Headache for Tesla?

Ford says:

We’re taking away all that hassle factor… That’s what we’re doing for our whole electrification plan: a seamless experience, so that jumping from internal combustion engines is not such a big deal.

Yeah, I busted up laughing.

edit: I laughed so hard and shared so fast I didn't get any farther, but it is freaking funny.

But Ford users have an advantage in that they can go check their apps or dashboard for the closest station and make an in-app purchase rather than subscribing to the individual networks.

edit again: and it isn't all silliness

But it also means that it could lead to more mass-market appeal with positive kickbacks for Tesla, which is already seeing more demand than it can handle.

 

[M3Rider]

New keying - truck again
Godwin Leung

Anybody's getting a feeling that keying Teslas has more to do with love of the oil and hating the climate action than Tesla brand?
I'm starting to think this is an admission of Tesla's success and a perceived threat to the lifestyle.
Who blocks the Superchargers? Trucks.

 

[JRP3]

"Tesla Model S custom wheel test - Time of Use Function for PowerSafe 100kWh Battery"
Jack Rickard | EV-TV | 1 hr ago

Obviously quite a bit wrong with his testing methodology so hard to draw conclusions, but it doesn't look good for the new wheels.

 

[RobStark]

Hummer could be part of GM's move into EV trucks, SUVs, report says

IF GM starts making electric Hummers that could be a Bollinger killer.

 

[humbaba]

Hummer could be part of GM's move into EV trucks, SUVs, report says

IF GM starts making electric Hummers that could be a Bollinger killer.

Maybe. As a new manufacturer, Bollinger has its work cut out, but GM hasn't exactly been a mover or shaker when it comes to EVs. The first attempt to slow adoption was their hybrid (Volt), and the EV (Bolt) isn't exactly inspiring. Nissan (for all the faults of the Leaf) takes it seriously, GM just wants EVs to go away.

edit to add:

"Putting a Hummer badge on anything is a great idea for General Motors because half the marketing is already paid for," he said. "Making it environmentally friendly is just icing on the cake."

I get it, its a puff piece. But the target market for Hummers doesn't give a hoot about environmentally friendly, no icing on that cake. Brand name could help sales, sure, but they are exaggerating the synergy.

 

[wipster]

Hummer could be part of GM's move into EV trucks, SUVs, report says

IF GM starts making electric Hummers that could be a Bollinger killer.

Electric Hummer... hmmm...

 

[jhm]

If they do they have to replace white with another color. Just sayin'

My claim to fame is that I was an eyewitness to the white Bronco chase. The 405 was my backyard.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Could they extend the cab on the CyberPickup into a CyberSUV?

basically something priced below the Model X.

Or could such a SUV/CUV be a replacement for the complicate to make (Faberge Egg reference) Model X. I am sure Tesla has learned a few things about production since the Model X appeared on the scene. It would be just as different as the X is in the present market and more capable. Since we are speculating.

 

[Christine69420]

If they do they have to replace white with another color. Just sayin'

The utility part of Broncos and Blazers are mostly in the back. No reason why the front could be more aerodynamic and futuristic. Need to fit a 5th wheel though for me to get one.