Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

Max Pain $280
View attachment 469938

Max Pain This !

Insane Pain.

For shorts.

 

[TradingInvest]

I used to think Tesla's market cap has a good chance to reach $1T in 10 years. Now I think Tesla is very likely to reach that market cap before 2025. This accelerated timeline is likely to trigger short squeeze.

Here is my estimation:

Battery pack cost is going down 30% in three years. Car's cost going down 20% excluding battery pack. Overall cost reduction 25%. Sales price can go up 20% due to FSD progress. I expect 40% gross margin in 2~3 years. My calculation shows gross margin can be much higher than 40% if FSD works.

Demand in 2023: 0.5% of world vehicle owners want to switch to a Tesla FSD car, so about 10 million demand in 2023. Production: I estimate seven Gigafactories running at full scale in 2023, six of them produce 3 million vehicles per year. In addition, we also have energy, insurance, and ride sharing businesses.

Assume shorts continue to short while the stock is bellow $400, this makes sense because they still think any rally is an opportunity to short more. They don't understand this stock is moving toward $9000 based on fundamentals. What will happen in that process? I don't know. I will hold my shares and lottery tickets tight. Eventually everyone will understand Tesla shares are at limited supply, most shares are already claimed for by investors who will not sell.

Long story short, I think short squeeze is inevitable. We are at the beginning similar to early 2013. The magnitude of this squeeze should be much larger because 20 times more money is on the short side and the fundamental is likely to drive the stock up to insane levels. The best part: lots of shorts still think this is a sure zero. I think the squeeze will last for years.

Just my random thoughts. Follow sound investment rules.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don't look

Lol, I looked. Here's what the market did when the SP touched 320 at 13:02 ET:

Notice how the trading volume hit 177k shares/min during the min when the SP hit $320? That's over 3x the 5-min avg vol of trades.

And the market soaked 'em up like butter! I didn't say the SP would go down; I said that hitting $320 would trigger selling, and it did.

Woe be it to the sellers today!

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

I think you may be somewhat tongue in cheek, but I don’t feel bad for any of them that used that TSLAQ Twitter block list. If you block the other side of the trade en masse, then you deserve what you have coming to you.

For the first 4.5 years after investing, I checked mark spiegels Twitter nearly every day to get a view into shorts perspective. (Never followed him, just looked). Checking the other side of the trade only strengthened my resolve as most of their viewpoints were complete nonsense, with valuation being the only legitimate criticism.

After that long, I realized they didn’t have any new arguments I hadn’t already heard, so I’ve stopped actively checking the other side of the trade, but the negative headlines help me know whether anything new has popped up, which so far, nothing.

Honestly I don't at all. Normal investing is just business, but shorting the world's premier EV company (and trying to drive it into bankruptcy) is a hostile action towards the planet/climate. Karma is a B.

 

[SteveG3]

It’s almost like you didn’t listen to the ER call where Tesla SPECIFICALLY answered an analyst asking the ‘How much will Y cannibalize the 3 sales?’

Hint: We expect no cannibalization of 3 by Y. *Elon chuckle* In fact, when X was introduced, S interest increased. We’re expecting the same thing to happen when Y is introduced.

appreciate all of that, and, fingers crossed

that said, I expect a MASSIVE advertising campaign for the Model Y that could impact sales

I think we will see a ton of hammering a message from the misinformation campaign which tells the public that the Model Y is just a hatch back version of the Model 3 that just needs to lose a few pounds... all so Tesla can scalp you for a few extra $k. I think rebuttals to this narrative will be ignored or laughed off in large media.

ie, a concerted effort to keep Model Y sales to 3 replacement sales as much as possible.

whether this tactic will have any material success, I don’t know. I do expect an attempt to make this framing seem to be common knowledge.

 

[wipster]

I think they got back from lunch...

 

[electracity]

appreciate all of that, and, fingers crossed

that said, I expect a MASSIVE advertising campaign for the Model Y that could impact sales

I think we will see a ton of hammering a message from the misinformation campaign which tells the public that the Model Y is just a hatch back version of the Model 3 that just needs to lose a few pounds... all so Tesla can scalp you for a few extra $k. I think rebuttals to this narrative will be ignored or laughed off in large media.

ie, a concerted effort to keep Model Y sales to 3 replacement sales as much as possible.

whether this tactic will have any material success, I don’t know. I do expect an attempt to make this framing seem to be common knowledge.

That's not how car buyers work. No one gives a crap about "framing" the Y as a retooled 3.

 

[electracity]

I think they got back from lunch...

The computers making the vast majority of trades?

 

[elasalle]

Solar Roof v3 might just stick it to Cynic Thanos ..

 

[shrspeedblade]

To quote somebody from last year:

"Weeeeee.................investing is fun!"

 

[Krugerrand]

Except in the situations where you don't want the door removed? What if you are in a tree without a seat belt and when the door blows you fall on to a pile of rocks below killing you. Sure most of the time having the door fall off might be good, but not all of the time.

You’ve been watching too much John Wick.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Question. I rightfully sense the Bears are about to pounce with something stupid as usual.

Taking into consideration the potential scarcity of shares available to short, would they have been accumulating shares themselves the past 2 days? And then dump it? Like if something is stuck in the toilet, you might want to accumulate some water before flushing.

 

[jbcarioca]

I assume that most potential model 3 buyers will switch to Y. I have a hard time forecasting what the transition at the factory looks like. So Tesla hits the 1000/wk rate for the model Y in June. Is there still demand for 6000 M3 in June? Are buyers in June purchasing the 3 or waiting for a Y?

If Fremont was completely flexible they would shift all 3 production to Y for six months. If the optimal theoretical strategy is 7000Y/wk, then the actual strategy they will try to implement is as fast of a ramp to Y as possible.

The big unknown is how fast 3 sale drop next year.

Other people have commented about why this assertion is false. Of course, reason number one is that the Model 3 is not readily available even in the US, but large numbers of people have existing reservations in countries where Model 3 is not available. Further, the world does not buy vehicles in a homogenous way. Many countries are not so SUV/Pickup mad as are the US and Canada. Even were that not so, there remains a large market for Sedans in every major market. It is true that SUV sales globally of large sedans like Model 3 (it is considered large in most worldwide markets) has been reduced in comparison to SUV and crossover versions. Thus, everyone thoughtful thinks Model Y will outsell Model 3. That most definitely does NOT mean that Model 3 would be diminished by that.

Some people will indeed trade from Model 3 to Model Y. Some people switched from Model S to Model 3. Some people will come to buy a Model Y and end out with a S, X or 3 instead. The most common single category in North America is probably families with a Model 3 and a Model Y. Some, including one I personally know have an S a 3 and an X and have a Y ordered to replace a BMW X3.

There is little doubt that Model 3 sales will continue to rise after Model Y is introduced. The more models Tesla has the more likely will be more multi-Tesla households.

 

[Ggusev]

current weekly candle is almost identical to same weekly from Oct 2018

 

[c041v]

The Mercedes gullwing doors had explosive bolts in case it ended up on it's lid:

I realize this is wading deep into O/T, but the biggest thing I took away from that video (I already knew it had the explosive bolts) was how hilarious a massive ICE in a car looks now after having seen numerous Tesla crash videos. It just seems like such a fundamentally flawed idea in the age of EV's.

Trying to find a suitable analogy...

EV: "I need to climb this mountain, I should eat beforehand to ensure I have energy."

ICE: "Have you thought about carrying your oven and all your food up the mountain with you?"

 

[Curt Renz]

Oh, and BTW, Tim the short guy on CNBC mentioned he wouldn't even consider pulling his short position unless we hit $320-325.

So that's nice.

That was money manager Tim Seymour, one of the regular panelists on CNBC's "Fast Money" which airs from 5-6 pm EDT. He frequently disses Tesla. Indeed it will be interesting to learn today whether he has covered his TSLA short position.

Here's the clip from yesterday in which Seymour replied as you have noted. Jump to the 3:32 minute mark.

 

[Cherry Wine]

RSI is indicating that the stock is overbought -- curious if others think this could lead to a cooling-off period.

 

[Congo Line]

largely agree re events, but, I’d adjust to ~$600 based on the misinformation campaign flooding the public with false narratives how every positive, neutral, and any stumbles are a disaster for Tesla.

how many times have you seen Tesla singled out as the company with China trade war risk either ignoring or attempting to twist the reality of the Shanghai GF.

as I’ve stated here for some years now, I think both the massive misinformation campaign and the historic outlier short position for over 7 years are “fossil fuel economy” driven AND I wouldn’t count on any major drop off in either phenomena before 2022 at the earliest.

just trying to share what I think is realistic... and that includes a $1200-2000 stock price circa 2026. I try to be conservative in my estimates, and if Tesla Network succeeds widely by then, good chance it will add about $2k to those prices.

In a way, the FUDsters are creating a large window of opportunity for buyers, which will close once earnings catch up with our (longs) expectations

 

[Nocturnal]

Other people have commented about why this assertion is false. Of course, reason number one is that the Model 3 is not readily available even in the US, but large numbers of people have existing reservations in countries where Model 3 is not available. Further, the world does not buy vehicles in a homogenous way. Many countries are not so SUV/Pickup mad as are the US and Canada. Even were that not so, there remains a large market for Sedans in every major market. It is true that SUV sales globally of large sedans like Model 3 (it is considered large in most worldwide markets) has been reduced in comparison to SUV and crossover versions. Thus, everyone thoughtful thinks Model Y will outsell Model 3. That most definitely does NOT mean that Model 3 would be diminished by that.

Some people will indeed trade from Model 3 to Model Y. Some people switched from Model S to Model 3. Some people will come to buy a Model Y and end out with a S, X or 3 instead. The most common single category in North America is probably families with a Model 3 and a Model Y. Some, including one I personally know have an S a 3 and an X and have a Y ordered to replace a BMW X3.

There is little doubt that Model 3 sales will continue to rise after Model Y is introduced. The more models Tesla has the more likely will be more multi-Tesla households.

Hence why BMW still sells many 3 series and Toyota still sells many Camry's, even though the X series and Highlanders are available. Very different markets.

 

[StealthP3D]

Geez, my one-off March $320-$380 call spread is now in the money and I need to roll it too? Man, today has been such a pain of rolling call spreads. Work, work work...

I know what you mean - Maybe get a blister on your little finger, maybe get a blister on your thumb.

That's why I just stay long.