Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dakh]

From history, it looks to me when a big run-up is happening, downward pressure is released and swing traders enjoy the over-exuberant ride up. So chances are this will run too far up and then once there's some new car crash or other piece of bad news, the smear campaign will resume in full force and try to swing the other way.

 

[KarenRei]

Why are you rolling it, to maintain the leverage?

Yep. Their leverage will continue to decline as the stock rises. I'm rolling to higher, later strikes, and taking out the differences in price for each call spread as a share or two of stock.

 

[Causalien]

Short term, there's a gap to be filled at $344. But to get to the next stage of tackling the rest of the gangrene shorts, we need to see result of giga3 sales.

I am guessing combination of Model Y volume production, Model 3 doubling sales due to China and the hopes of the pickup will push us towards $400 and tackle those gangrene shorts. The squeeze on that will be epic.

ETA is probably July 2020, Oct 2020 to be safer.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla just became worth more than Uber. Ergo: it needs to at least triple or quadruple.

 

[shrspeedblade]

It's not even close. 2nd highest trim level of the Highlander, which is the gold standard for small/mid SUVs right now.

Adding security and a few features, it's at 46k. Missing many of the Tesla wizardry (and cool factor) and getting 26 gallons to a mile on the highway. Hybrid version is like 3k more and gets you a whopping 28mpg highway, 30 city. Compare this to the AWD Model Y. The Y will be faster, less maintenance, get 100+ MPG, and autopilot, access to FSD etc. On top of all that, how many Dads out there are reluctant to drive around the Dad mobile (I owned a 2017 Highlander myself, fine car but not exactly cool) but would jump at the chance to own the Tesla version? Oh, and it's far safer.

The model Y is going to make ,model 3 sales seem quaint (at least in the US).
View attachment 469955

Those shares were sold from an IRA brokerage account. ​

Wow, the Y will really crush it on efficiency!

 

[SteveG3]

That's not how car buyers work. No one gives a crap about "framing" the Y as a retooled 3.

they seem to care about framing the safest car you can buy as a firetrap/auto kill high tech nightmare

has anyone here not come across many people influenced by the misinformation campaign to dislike/distrust Elon and their products?

as I said in the original comment on this, I don’t know how successful the Model Y = Model 3 false narrative will be. I do think it’s in our interest to be aware that this messaging is likely to be run across media like a large ad campaign.

 

[Singuy]

I only started buying the stock a year ago. It’s the only one in my portfolio. Initial goal was 100. I’ve reached 1,000 now, way more than I envisioned but will full conviction. I will sell them at $4000, but unfortunately my broker platform doesn’t accept that sell order yet.

Great! 4k/share will have biggest resistance ever since all the longs has that as a sell limit. Way to suck longs, way to suck.

 

[wipster]

The computers making the vast majority of trades?

Didn't know they ate lunch...

 

[MichaelP90DL]

You know what I want tomorrow during the solar roof presentation?

"Today, we would like to announce our first home builder partnership with Toll Brothers as an effort to accelerate our transition to sustainable energy using Tesla's Solar Roof".

...Along with either a wall charger built in, or at least the circuitry in place for one, in the garage.

 

[LJS22]

That was money manager Tim Seymour, one of the regular panelists on CNBC's "Fast Money" which airs from 5-6 pm EDT. He frequently disses Tesla. Indeed it will be interesting to learn today whether he has covered his TSLA short position.

Here's the clip from yesterday in which Seymour replied as you have noted. Jump to the 3:32 minute mark.

The first guy breaking down the chart did a nice job of showing TSLA support there. But man Tim has to get out of that short position. It sounded like he made that $320-325 number up on the spot and made his real intentions known at the end when talking about waiting it out a couple months.
These analyst really don’t know what they are in for for Q4. One said yesterday that he expects Q4 to be weaker for them...this is dangerous times for short sellers.

 

[EVMeister]

Great! 4k/share will have biggest resistance ever since all the longs has that as a sell limit. Way to suck longs, way to suck.

Negative.

 

[kbM3]

appreciate all of that, and, fingers crossed

that said, I expect a MASSIVE advertising campaign for the Model Y that could impact sales

I think we will see a ton of hammering a message from the misinformation campaign which tells the public that the Model Y is just a hatch back version of the Model 3 that just needs to lose a few pounds... all so Tesla can scalp you for a few extra $k. I think rebuttals to this narrative will be ignored or laughed off in large media.

ie, a concerted effort to keep Model Y sales to 3 replacement sales as much as possible.

whether this tactic will have any material success, I don’t know. I do expect an attempt to make this framing seem to be common knowledge.

That attempt to re-portray the model Y as nothing more than a bloated model three, is already well underway in the comment sections of Electrek, Reddit and InsideEvs.

 

[Mike Smith]

Momentum traders will push through resistance to force another round of short covering.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

How long do we think this wave of short covering will last? I wonder if it will keep rising or deflate on Monday...

 

[abasile]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be due to something missing in their education. Hug a short today.

Zero sympathy for the well-funded shorts who know what they're doing and are trying to derail Tesla's mission.

I have some sympathy for small retail shorts who don't understand what's truly going on. They obviously lack critical thinking skills and have allowed themselves to become pawns. I hope they wake up before causing serious financial damage to their families. As others have mentioned, I would like to see some backlash against the TSLAQ movement.

 

[Curt Renz]

If they announce a partnership with a major homebuilder - Lennar, D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, etc - Monday will make today look bearish.

... wait a minute. PulteGroup? Bill Pulte? The Twitter philanthropy guy? Hmm...

Bill Pulte on Twitter

View attachment 469948

...

Nah, probably just a coincidence

Is he adding Nema-14-50s to garages in all the homes he is building? Sooner or later, what you describe is coming. I'm thinking of rentals first. Young people (I'm 39 so relative to me) are obsessed with EVs and Tesla. Even if they don't have one, or aren't likely to own one in the near term, having access to chargers/solar/etc. on new homes and rentals will be a huge marketing point.

I had my home built three years ago through a company that has since been bought by Lennar. I requested a Nema 14-50 electrical outlet for my garage, and they complied with no extra charge. I would anticipate that this will soon be the norm for homebuilders. BTW, the home was fully paid with profits from TSLA.

 

[StealthP3D]

From history, it looks to me when a big run-up is happening, downward pressure is released and swing traders enjoy the over-exuberant ride up. So chances are this will run too far up and then once there's some new car crash or other piece of bad news, the smear campaign will resume in full force and try to swing the other way.

This buy-side pressure is going to stick around for a while. It takes time for the markets to adjust to new realities. It's a big adjustment going from "EV's are not profitable" and "the more they make, the more they lose" to, "wow, it's a cash printing machine" and " they are already making cars in the brand new G3?" How is that possible? I was told Tesla can never meet expectations, that they are always slow and late.

It's gonna take a lot more than a car crash to put a dent in this.

 

[anthonyj]

How long do we think this wave of short covering will last? I wonder if it will keep rising or deflate on Monday...

37M shares shorted. Probably 6M net covered so far. We have a ways to go

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

With the solar roof V3 presentation coming up and the knowledge that Monday morning will see a new round of margin calls, I wonder how many shorts will jump ship in the last 1,5 hours.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Hmm that could be too soon but I am thinking it will be over 325 next week.

Oh my. Pushed through 325 this quick! Just in 3 minutes!