Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

I would think the MY will have slightly less legroom than M3 if anything. This is normal when you sit upright. In addition, they have 3 rows to squeeze in on a platform that is based on the M3.

CUV's don't tend to have three rows AFAIK

 

[Fact Checking]

That’s surprising. Given that marketwatch reporters like Francine McKenna & Jeremy Owen are professional FUDsters.

Yeah.

I'd say that while there's a few like Linette who are probably incorrigible, there's hope that a very large group of journalists turn out to be not professional anti-Tesla FUDsters, but were just our usual overworked business press journalists with a short attention span and another 10,000 companies to cover, who got caught up in the "Tesla is fundamentally unprofitable" group-think "common wisdom" affinity fraud spread by the shortz conmen, which narrative is eroding nicely after the Q3 and Q4 results.

 

[Tslynk67]

I know the feeling.

It was, in fact, a Banks (Iain not the other one) reference: The Sublimed - Wikipedia

 

[SPadival]

Yeah.

I'd say that while there's a few like Linette who are probably incorrigible, there's hope that a very large group of journalists turn out to be not professional anti-Tesla FUDsters, but were just our usual overworked business press journalists with a short attention span and another 10,000 companies to cover, who got caught up in the "Tesla is unprofitable" group-think "common wisdom" affinity fraud spread by the shortz conmen, which narrative is eroding nicely after the Q3 and Q4 results.

Agree. I don’t hate on Lora Kolodny any more

 

[SpudLime]

Man. This has turned into work emails

STOP REPLYING TO ALL!

-Reply’s All

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Model 3 U.S. Deliveries Dip As It Ships To Global Markets

Insideevs estimate for Tesla January Deliveries

Model 3 6500
Model S 875
Model X 950

January 2018, for comparison:

Model 3 1875 (+347%)
Model S 800 (+9%)
Model X 700 (+36%)

 

[SebastianR]

January 2018, for comparison:

Model 3 1875 (+347%)
Model S 800 (+9%)
Model X 700 (+36%)

I expected way less sales than 6500 for the US last month.

Indeed, this is better than I expected.

 

[kyzhk]

stock price around Q1 ER will be risky for short term options.

Even when Tesla guided for a small profit / possible small loss in Q1 due to europe/china shipment, the shorts and media will jump out with scary headlines about imminent bankwuptcy. There will be do doubt a "convincing" narrative manufactured around how Tesla is not a sustainably profitable business.

Tesla Q4 ER: Hey, for Q1 due to large amount of inventory in transit to China and Europe we are expecting a small profit / possible small loss.
Analyst before Q1 ER: $3 EPS for Q1!
Tesla Q1 ER: We made a small profit / lost a little money as guided in Q4 ER.
Analyst after Q1 ER: OMG tesla miss EPS by big margin / starts losing money again!

 

[STARR X]

The middle-aged and upwards tend to have formed loyalties too a bran dover the years and it takes a lot to pry them away from that, these are the iPace and eTron buyers.

The younger generation will buy a Tesla. Tesla are spurt-cool, 99% of them want a Tesla. maybe this will change over time as other EV's come to market, but right now, that's the way it is. Only problem is that most can't afford one, but Tesla are working on this...

Most kids get used cars for their first car. Tesla is going to have a lot of used vehicles available in the coming years.

 

[Buckminster]

CUV's don't tend to have three rows AFAIK

70% likelihood of 3 rows I reckon. Why:
Not denied plus GF1 rumour coming true.
Elon now referring it to as midsize SUV
Midsize SUVs seem to have 3 rows in at least a fair number of cases including most popular

 

[FS_FRA]

People buying in China are not necessarily buying it to drive, but to be driven in. Think chauffeur. So having a roomy and comfortable back seat is important. I think the model Y will be a huge hit here. When I was in China on business I was normally driven in a CUV style vehicle.

This!

I believe the origin (when I lived in HK turn of the century) of the -L models of German sedans was exactly that those that could afford an imported car could typically afford to hire a driver and did so. And since just being able to afford an import didn’t mean you could afford an S-Class, A8 or 7-Series. Also just because you could afford an import didn’t mean you could actually drive (or had a license). Finally, in those days driving in China was a nightmare and best left to professionals....
So the German manufacturers started offering lower variants of theses cars as -L models exclusively for the Chinese market.
An A4L makes no sense, other than if you are typically sitting rear-right vs. front-left.

 

[saniflash]

I predict unpredictable movements until Model Y reveal which will have a huge spike the next day followed by profit taking and then more unpredictable movements.

agreed.

the question for me is also, will the "smarter" shorts already start slowly covering (which would provide some upwards pressure), or will they wait for a likely dip around release of Q1 ER (which will not be good) to cover?

 

[jbcarioca]

Not to mention the wind chill in the windy city...

I feel like I'm basking in warmth here in the PNW with 35°...

Me too, but it is 35C here in Rio.

Can I convince you to drive a M3P and come back here to let us know how it may affect your investment decision?

Sure,, just as soon as I get to my garage. My P3D+ is clear winner on my personal best vehicle list. That based on ~10,000 miles on my car and several RWDLR’s

 

[Fact Checking]

Even when Tesla guided for a small profit / possible small loss in Q1 due to europe/china shipment, the shorts and media will jump out with scary headlines about imminent bankwuptcy. There will be do doubt a "convincing" narrative manufactured around how Tesla is not a sustainably profitable business.

So if they have ~10,000 cars "in transit" in Q1, and the split is roughly 2,000 S/X and 8,000 Model 3's, then we can estimate how much drain this is going to be on cash: sales value of about $200m+$480m = $680m, which is carried in finished goods inventory at an about 70% CoG basis, which should be ~$476m increase in inventory.

The cash balance drain is less clear: I'd guess that there should actually be a payables expansion effect in Q1 from increased Model 3 production - and a few thousand units drop of Model S/X production.

The 'tiny profit' would come from not delivering enough units in Q1. The '85% Model 3 VIN growth estimate' method is suggesting planned Q1 production target of about 75k units. If 8k of that are shipping to Europe and China at the end of the quarter then deliveries could be as high as 68k: +8% growth over Q4, and at a far higher average ASP.

That should generate both tidy profits and tidy cash from operations, and total cash should be at around Q3-Q4 levels even with the $920m convertibles payout in March.

Maybe @ReflexFunds can see how the 10k vehicles in transit number translates to 'tiny profit' and negative free cash flow - I don't. The only way I can see them missing it is if they don't manage to deliver those cars (European Delivery Hell), or if U.S. end of quarter sales are not as strong and they'll end up with say more than 10k unsold U.S. units in inventory.

 

[lklundin]

There’s a short that thinks Tesla is shipping Model 3s overseas and dumping them into the ocean.

But in a very sneaky manner, since Tesla goes to great lengths to make it appear that these cars will actually be shipped to other markets.

Take for example the latest shipment, CSCC Europe, which has been loading cars for a couple of days at Pier 80 and now is about to leave for Panama:

CSCC EUROPE Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9391593) - VesselFinder

The previous such shipment that also left for Panama, the Grand Aurora, is now off the coast of Costa Rica, while the two first shipments for Europe are in the Atlantic. A fifth shipment is in the Pacific, headed for China.

One could easily be fooled to think that these shipments would actually arrive at their destination...

 

[gora321]

New Scientist on Twitter

 

[Todd Burch]

2nd ever post. FUD article.

A not so welcome to the forum Mr. Czeching

Edit: Since you’re new around here. The etiquette is that if you are going to post a link, you should also summarize what Is in that link and why you’re linking it.

Further Edit: The article is a hit piece. Don’t waste your time. Written by LA Times writer Russ Mitchell. I looked him up on twitter and he is just as much a TSLAQ troll as any of them. Literally retweeting TSLAQ FUD, like TeslaCharts. Literally everything he writes is with blinders to real facts and skewed in whichever way makes Tesla looks worse.

That’s the author I was Tweeting back and forth with. He got pwned.

 

[lklundin]

I have to say that really IS a nice tee shirt.

Those were the days.

Eastern Europe had just opened its borders and during summer break I cycled 6000 km through it all reducing the risk of being robbed by looking like crap.

The tee shirt was given to me by a woman in Hungary, who thought my clothes were too shabby. I wore it inside out, because it had the Canadian flag on it (apologies to any Canadians).

The photo was taking at the Berlin Wall before the ominous watch towers were demolished, there I was in the company of a local woman who referred to me as "Mein Liebling aus der Gosse" (My Darling of the Gutter).

PS. Because of its historical significance I placed a (cropped) version of the photo on the relevant Wikipedia article:
East Side Gallery - Wikipedia

 

[UnknownSoldier]

View attachment 373890
New Scientist on Twitter

Or they could just watch The Day After Tomorrow because that's pretty much what is happening.
The Day After Tomorrow - Wikipedia

 

[Toumal]

To quite the former CEO of BP, all this climate change stuff is simply an engineering problem, and we can just all move underground.