Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EinSV]

"Tesla is and remains one of our biggest and best short positions"

Seems like as good a time as any for an update:

With share price hovering just under ~$359, Chanos' $TSLA short is now down ~80% from when he initiated the position at ~$200.

With interest, likely down ~90-95%.

If this is what he considers one of his "best" shorts, hate to see one of his "worst."

With Jim Chanos apparently scheduled to make an appearance today, it's probably not a bad time for a reminder that he started shorting $TSLA when the share price was ~$200.

At yesterday's closing price, that puts him down about 75%. With interest, probably more like 85-90%.

"It appears that Chanos has been short Tesla [TSLA] since the stock price was around $200, since he said in a June 2017 interview (when the stock price was around $350) that he had already been short the company for 150 points of the stock price’s rise."​

Where In The World Is Jim Chanos? #Tesla #Pravduh #King | CleanTechnica

 

[ggr]

Mod: I yield. I would prefer that discussion of the truck itself go to the other thread, but it is clear that I can't turn back the tide. --ggr.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Chanos seemed to be taking a step back from his Tesla rhetoric. Not a giant step mind you, but a baby step. At one point he said, "It's not profitability we're talking about here, it's the stock". Seemed to be admitting Tesla will be profitable. I don't think I've ever heard him say that before.

 

[sunhelm]

Chanos:" Tesla acknowledged their US Model 3 sales is plateauing." Did I hear that right? Any source that can corroborate this claim?

Also according to him Tesla said "Margins in China is about the same as in Fremont".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Chanos:" Tesla acknowledged their US Model 3 sales is plateauing." Did I hear that right? Any source that can corroborate this claim?

Also according to him Tesla said "Margins in China is about the same as in Fremont".

Almost assuredly, he's talking about one of the shorts favorite talking points....that US deliveries were down in Q3 verses Q3 2018. It completely ignores that Tesla is shipping Model 3 worldwide now instead of just US like last year and that Tesla sold every Model 3 they made......but ya know, whatever helps them sleep at night

As for Tesla acknowledging a plateau in US sales, I don't remember anything of the sort on the Q3 earnings call

 

[Nocturnal]

What if it can float, sustainably?

Don't know if Chinese would be watching the unveiling. Pickups are not that popular in China but then again there may be a lot of Chinese buying the Cybertruck as the latest status symbol.

Tesla is a very popular brand and from what I can gather the Chinese have (not unexpected) odd ideas about what's "cool" from a western perspective.

An older example is PBR, which is a super premium beer there.
http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/07/21/pabst-blue-ribbon-is-classy-and-expensive-in-china/

That said, I don't think any type of pick up would really register there but this is a brave new world.

Chanos:" Tesla acknowledged their US Model 3 sales is plateauing." Did I hear that right? Any source that can corroborate this claim?

Also according to him Tesla said "Margins in China is about the same as in Fremont".

Demand plateau is something I haven't heard from anyone. Margins - Tesla did say that.​

 

[EVNow]

“The most active options were the weekly 360-calls,” said Khouw. “Over 10,500 of those traded for an average price of about $5. Obviously, buyers of those calls are betting that the stock is going to rise above that $360 strike price by at least the $5 that they paid.”

Currently (with SP ~ 358), 370 calls are trading at 1.80 and 350 puts at 2.36.

 

[Tslynk67]

Loading the $420 calls, gonna be $700 tomorrow when Gwynn Shotwell hops on stage, becomes Tesla’s COO and SpaceX makes an investment. I’ma buy 20 Cybertrucks and BEV all the gas stations

I don't know what you've been smoking these last days, Anthony, but it's some good shiiiiit

 

[StealthP3D]

I just don't see what else besides the truck reveal that can push us higher until the Y starts production. Hope I'm wrong.

Well, you're in luck!

Because you're wrong!

This is said like someone who is new to investing because there are a lot of events that could push us to new all-time highs and the Cybertruck is about the least likely amongst them (unless other material information is released during the reveal).

For example, a trade deal with China. Even though Tesla is not all that exposed to Chinese tariffs with their new G3, this kind of news would cause TSLA to rise to new highs. It would remove the risk of further deterioration of US/China relations which is an important consideration for any US companies doing business in China (beyond tariffs).

Also, further gains in Q4 margins or reductions in manufacturing costs could cause TSLA to take off like a Falcon rocket without a payload.

It makes me wonder why I bother to respond to this kind of nonsense.

 

[RFernatt]

Mod: I yield. I would prefer that discussion of the truck itself go to the other thread, but it is clear that I can't turn back the tide. --ggr.

 

[uselesslogin]

If we were to look at the day after unveils what are the ones to look at? For the Model S unveil Tesla was still private but the others would be:
Model X 2012 unveil
Supercharger v1 unveil
Battery swap unveil
Dual motor and Autopilot unveil
Model X 2015 unveil
Model 3 unveil
Semi/Roadster unveil
Model Y unveil

Is that all of them? I can compile movements later but am I missing anything from this list? I’m talking night-time live events with invitations.

OK here it is. The list apparently no one asked for. Either way useful for me.
Model X 2012 +2.04%
Supercharger v1 -9.78%
Battery swap -1.09%
The "D" -7.82%
Model X 2015 +0.71%
Model 3 +3.4%
Semi/Roadster +0.82%
Model Y -5.01%

Well, it seems to me puts are a better bet than calls. I'll probably stay away from this one but I definitely won't buy calls.

 

[madodel]

Ouch, they might locate a Markus B. Spiegelicus lost in the woods there. Rare and very peculiar species but definitely not native to that forest!

ps: it is definitely an endangered species due to the latest SP movements!

From what I have read this species is very attached to their toilet. If they gradually move their toilet out of the forest they should follow.

 

[SteveG3]

100:1 odds Chanos knows what he is saying is rubbish

two quick examples:

-it is almost impossible he does not know about Tesla's ~50% annual growth the past several years, and being on track to continue it for years to come, then 20-30% growth. Chanos's claim that Tesla's valuation should be indexed to the auto industry as a whole (0-5% growth) completely ignores Tesla's growth rate... there is almost no way he doesn't know that ignoring this is rubbish

-he parroted the "flat/down North America YOY Model 3 sales... again, I find it almost impossible to believe Chanos does not know about the global expansion of the business vs. Q4 '18 Model 3 sales being either entirely (or virtually entirely) NA.


As Jim Cramer said in that video about his experiences of with stock manipulation, (paraphrasing) "the truth is the last thing you want to talk about."

 

[EVNow]

Chanos:" Tesla acknowledged their US Model 3 sales is plateauing." Did I hear that right? Any source that can corroborate this claim?

No - I've not heard that. I think it is his interpretation.

Having said that - that is my assumption as well. We should be actually ok with that - given GF3 and Y coming online next year, there will be plenty of growth. In the long run, after GF4, if Tesla sells 10k/wk of 3+Y in US and something similar in China+EU they'll be in great shape. That would be 1M 3+Y per year, compared to 360k of 3 this year, a growth of 200%.

Chanos and company probably assume very high cannibalization of 3 by Y - making the 3+Y demand same as 3 deliveries now. That is where the next battle will be fought.

Also according to him Tesla said "Margins in China is about the same as in Fremont".

I'm fine with that. ~23% margin on China produced 3s. Will be probably slightly higher, but Tesla won't give a number - just saying it is similar to rest of the world - in order to not anger the Chinese buyers.

ps : I think Tesla should lower the price if the margins are much higher than the margins in ROW, once the production can meet the demand in China. Chinese buyers should get the benefit of reduced labor costs in China and it will also help increase the volume. If Tesla can sell 10k/wk in NA, 10k/wk in China and 10k/wk in ROW (3+Y) - they'll be in a strong position.​

 

[woodisgood]

Questions he wants to ask Elon:
1) 3Q 10Q questions same as Einhorn. Suspects there's some accounting hijinks going on that the lawyers are worried about.
2) Why are all your executives leaving?
3) What's with all the pronouncements (Robotaxis, self-driving, Semi)? Why keep doing that?

 

[EinSV]

Seems like as good a time as any for an update:

With share price hovering just under ~$359, Chanos' $TSLA short is now down ~80% from when he initiated the position at ~$200.

With interest, likely down ~90-95%.

If this is what he considers one of his "best" shorts, hate to see one of his "worst."

I do admire Chanos' persistence. Any old short seller can lose 100% -- perhaps Chanos wants to take a run at the $TSLAQ record, which to my knowledge is currently held by Whitney Tilson, who lost ~500% on his $TSLA short in 2013-14.

Fun times!

Tesla - Tilson Compares To Amazon And Netflix But Won't Buy Or Short

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm surprised that Elons Twitter comment about Than.. er, Chanos got so little attention. No, not the fact that he called out Chanos. That was well publicized. But the other thing he was saying: that he has been proven wrong. Message: Tesla is killing it. No more 'only weeks until we run out of money' or 'everything depends on these last few days of deliveries'. No. Tesla has won.

Bullish AF.

That was the #1 thing that stood out to me as well. Anyone who believes as I do, that Elon is typically truthful and very transparent, can come to no other conclusion. Bullish AF!

And I love the fact that he warned the shorts, now is the time to exit. It's like a poker player telling the other players he has a winning hand because he *knows* they won't believe him so they will not fold or call, they will raise the bet.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, conform or be cast out

View attachment 479555

Subdivisions!

 

[willow_hiller]

"Tesla is and remains one of our biggest and best short positions"

Is anyone else reading that as a non-denial denial? In order for that statement to be true, it just means:

1. Their TSLA position has been more profitable than most of their other short positions
2. They still hold some sort of short position in TSLA
   

It says absolutely nothing about how that short position has changed recently, or is changing.

 

[RFernatt]

Ouch, they might locate a Markus B. Spiegelicus lost in the woods there. Rare and very peculiar species but definitely not native to that forest!

ps: it is definitely an endangered species due to the latest SP movements!

From what I have read this species is very attached to their toilet. If they gradually move their toilet out of the forest they should follow.

Rare snapshot of the creature...