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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Ark buys the meme
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True, but not sure it matters much. If your trailer is a fifth wheel, there’s a good chance you’re over the tow rating of the cybertruck anyway.
Most fifth wheel trailers for pickups weigh between 7,000 and 20,000 lbs with the average between 12,000 and 15,000 lbs. So many are within the capacity of the Cybertruck (14,000 lbs).
 
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Reactions: JustMe and humbaba
$100 refundable deposit means nothing. It should have been $2000 refundable deposit.
I see advantages in the lower deposit amount. Sure, at $100, there will be some not-very-serious reservers. However, even for those who reserved on impulse, for whom $2000 might have been a bridge too far, that $100 reservation easily turns into an emotional commitment to buying the vehicle. It gives them a relationship with Tesla and a reason to follow the products.

The only bad thing about these reservations, in any dollar amount, is that they tend to create the expectation that Tesla will treat it as a place in line, in the order in which the reservations were placed. With the Model 3, reservation order didn't mean a great deal. The main benefit, then and now, was/is locking in the best available price/terms.

Before last night, I wasn't planning to place a Cybertruck reservation. I expected an AWD truck with seating for 6 to be significantly more expensive than an AWD Model Y with seating for 7, and my wife didn't like the idea of spending more for a truck. However, I was pleasantly surprised at the reasonable price and the integrated bed cover, and the styling quickly grew on me. Before I could check with my wife, I went ahead and reserved the Cybertruck - for $100 refundable, why not? One of our kids excitedly managed to tell her before I had a chance. It turns out that she likes the design, and our oldest thinks the Cybertruck is "sick".

Also, my initial gut reaction as an investor, upon seeing the low price points, was to be concerned that the Cybertruck would Osborne the Model Y and Model X. It may to some degree, but frankly, not everyone wants their daily driver to be a big truck that's almost 20 feet long, and many people simply lack the space to park such a large vehicle. The X/Y/Cybertruck market segments overlap, but not by enough to kill X/Y sales.
 
It was actually more profitable to hold through this drop than to sell yesterday and buy today.

My long term capital gains tax rate is about 10% lower than my short term capital gains tax rate. The stock only dropped 6% today. So by holding through the drop, and continuing to hold TSLA for at least 1 year, I've earned 4% more than I would have swing trading this movement.

This doesn't get mentioned often enough!

A related advantage of "buy and hold" if you cannot use a tax-protected account for your trading is you can put off paying taxes for many years (because the only gains are unrealized) which gives you more money invested through your investing career. Hopefully, those trying to beat the returns of "buy and hold" by swing-trading a portion of their position, understand that they need to identify the blocks they are selling with their broker or the broker will likely use First-in, First-out (FIFO) which has the nasty result of making your *entire* holdings short term capital gains (as you churn through your trades).

So there are plenty of reasons to just sit tight. Also, short-sellers love this churn because it makes it easier for them to cover without causing a squeeze.
 
Regarding the debate on whether to hold or swing trade, I cannot speak for people who have been in the market for a long time, but for new folks in the US like myself:

It was actually more profitable to hold through this drop than to sell yesterday and buy today.

My long term capital gains tax rate is about 10% lower than my short term capital gains tax rate. The stock only dropped 6% today. So by holding through the drop, and continuing to hold TSLA for at least 1 year, I've earned 4% more than I would have swing trading this movement.

I think it depends on your basis and tax bracket
Buy 100 shares at $0.94
Sell 100 shares at $1
Buy 106 shares at $0.94
Sell 106 at $1 for $12 gain
60% post tax is $7.20 net

Versus sell 100 at $1, $6 gain
70% post tax is $4.20 net

If basis was 0,
112 @ 60%=$67.20
106*70%=$74.20
 
Also, my initial gut reaction as an investor, upon seeing the low price points, was to be concerned that the Cybertruck would Osborne the Model Y and Model X. It may to some degree, but frankly, not everyone wants their daily driver to be a big truck that's almost 20 feet long, and many people simply lack the space to park such a large vehicle. The X/Y/Cybertruck market segments overlap, but not by enough to kill X/Y sales.
True, but until yesterday I wanted an X real bad to replace the S. Now I'm content to wait for the Cybertruck (perhaps not all that patiently).
 
I think it depends on your basis and tax bracket
Buy 100 shares at $0.94
Sell 100 shares at $1
Buy 106 shares at $0.94
Sell 106 at $1 for $12 gain
60% post tax is $7.20 net

Versus sell 100 at $1, $6 gain
70% post tax is $4.20 net

If basis was 0,
112 @ 60%=$67.20
106*70%=$74.20

Not really applicable. When you buy/hold over, say a 10 year period all your gains compound tax-free for the entire 10 years. If you churn (in and out) over those same 10 years the investable principle is whittled away by annual capital gains taxes.