Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Darkfox021]

Pickups are already ugly. The whole point is that they're functional, not pretty. If a pickup buyer is turned off by the design, they are by definition a poser. I'm going to try to resist using this logic over Thanksgiving, but may not give much quarter after that.

 

[jerry33]

I agree with Tim, the design allows Tesla to pull an extra 2000 pounds, yet turned off 50-70% of the traditional truck buyers. It’s a high price to pay, and I think Elon needs to think hard about his shareholders whenever he designs a product or sends out a tweet. This is indeed a very high price to pay. Nevertheless, it is what’s it is. I hope the team is already working on a more traditional truck to be release 3-4 years later to burry the incumbent ICE trucks for good.

This is just another knee-jerk reaction. People always need a bit of time to get their head around new designs. They've really already buried most of the ICE trucks with this design. They just need a couple of variants to bury the rest of them.

 

[KarenRei]

I'll be surprised if Tesla is making their own steel. They may well be specifying their own steel alloy and rolling treatment but if you think auto manufacturing is capital intensive, compare it to a new steel mill.

 

[snellenr]

i said frunk. Front of vehicle. That is a very large storage space.

Darn it - you did... apologies.

(And I should have caught that, since “frunk tool crib” is exactly how I used my pre-AWD P85 while digging out after Hurricane Harvey.)

 

[EVNow]

Maybe they are issued randomly from blocks and the blocks get filled in. But they aren't sequential. And we have no idea how big a block is.

For something so randomly issued :

11/23/2019 12:54 pm : 146,000
11/24/2019 12:04 pm : 187,000
difference : 41k

11/23/2019 1:30 pm : 1129098xx
11/24/2019 12:50 pm : 112961518
difference : 51k

ps : Objective is not to find out whether the RNs are sequential, but whether we can estimate the number of orders based on RNs.

pps : When Musk said 146k - using RNs we'd have (112909xxx-112740xxx) = 169k.

 

[jerry33]

I look at getting the truck this way. I can always use it as not-a-truck. And when I need a truck...bada bing ..I have the best truck ever!

Also every person I interact with is one more potential gasser off the Rd.

Plus when the stock takes off....and O yes it's going to take off....I can afford it and the ATV!

You got it. This will be much better to camp in than the S.

 

[electracity]

Pickups are already ugly. The whole point is that they're functional, not pretty. If a pickup buyer is turned off by the design, they are by definition a poser. I'm going to try to resist using this logic over Thanksgiving, but may not give much quarter after that.

People like what they like. That is not being a poser. But I agree that pickup design comes from function. It's the motorized version of a horse drawn carriage.

But the cybertruck is arguably form before function. Nothing wrong with that until you start assigning who in the debate is the poser.

 

[electracity]

I agree with Tim, the design allows Tesla to pull an extra 2000 pounds, yet turned off 50-70% of the traditional truck buyers. It’s a high price to pay, and I think Elon needs to think hard about his shareholders whenever he designs a product or sends out a tweet. This is indeed a very high price to pay. Nevertheless, it is what’s it is. I hope the team is already working on a more traditional truck to be release 3-4 years later to burry the incumbent ICE trucks for good.

Tesla can't build another mass market vehicle model for 3-4 years, except possibly in China. There is no point in a "me too EV pickup" to satisfy traditional truck buyers.

The cyber truck is an answer to Rivian as well as an anti Model X/Y to show that Tesla is still fresh. Musk is stimulating demand and interest to make better battery and manufacturing plant deals.

This is chess, not checkers. The product is the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Fact Checking]

But the cybertruck is arguably form before function.

That's a false claim too, the planar design of the Cybertuck was dictated by physics:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press."​

 

[SpeedGoat]

I think SpaceX foundry only makes Raptor parts for Starship currently. An Elon in-house stainless steel foundry was only a matter of time though.
It's even more important to buy Nickel mines/production plants now too.

You know where there is an awful lot of nickel?

M-type asteroid - Wikipedia

 

[electracity]

That's a false claim too, the planar design of the Cybertuck was dictated by physics:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press."​

A more square back end would work aerodynamically but be ugly in a bad way. The cybertruck is well crafted brutalist ( go Franz). A better work truck could be made from bent steel but it would not only be severe but ugly. It would also serve no purpose. The cybertruck is aimed at the cool kids, not the plumber.

 

[EVMeister]

At the risk of turning this into an Elon's Twitter feed thread: Elon Musk on Twitter.

"Cybertruck is our last product unveil for a while, but there will be some (mostly) unexpected technology announcements next year".

 

[Tslynk67]

 

[ZachF]

Very interesting, Tesla will be making their own stainless steel:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."​

So after SpaceX foundry there's going to be a Tesla foundry too!

Might explain some of the CoGs reduction @KarenRei and @ReflexFunds were arguing about?

They'd avoid steel tariffs as well.

They should just expand the SpaceX foundry to be large enough for both.

Cybertruck using "SpaceX steel" would be a huge selling point.

 

[wipster]

Wow, reservations are up to 187k now, per Elon Twitter post 2 hours ago. I would bet over 200k by market opening tomorrow.

What a failure... not!

Edit, 187k... thanks Thekiwi

 

[Thekiwi]

Wow, reservations are up to 287k now, per Elon Twitter post 2 hours ago. I would bet over 200k by market opening tomorrow.

What a failure... not!

Typo - 187k. 200k is possible announcement on Monday

 

[EVNow]

Wow, reservations are up to 287k now, per Elon Twitter post 2 hours ago. I would bet over 200k by market opening tomorrow.

What a failure... not!

You mean 187k.

At the rate of ~ 1800 / hour, we may even see a tweet by Musk around 9 PM PST today about 200k.

 

[Fact Checking]

A more square back end would work aerodynamically but be ugly in a bad way. The cybertruck is well crafted brutalist ( go Franz). A better work truck could be made from bent steel but it would not only be severe but ugly. It would also serve no purpose. The cybertruck is aimed at the cool kids, not the plumber.

Sorry, that's gobbledygook.

A "more square back end" would, as @KarenRei pointed it out many times, cause air flow separation, turbulence and a significant increase in drag.

The triangular shape is a load-bearing structure, similar to a "king post truss bridge":

Note that the entirety of the upper arch is a load bearing structure, possibly including the planar glass. Adding anything there to make it more boxy would increase drag, add mass and reduce boundary protection.

The blunt nose is required to create vehicle height and usable passenger and cargo volume:

The half-hexagon wheel wells are literally the simplest possible, still functional planar approximation of a half-circle.

~90% of the Cybertuck is defined by function, not form - in a brilliant minimalist design.

 

[electracity]

At the risk of turning this into an Elon's Twitter feed thread: Elon Musk on Twitter.

"Cybertruck is our last product unveil for a while, but there will be some (mostly) unexpected technology announcements next year".

Cars being able to power the house is overdue. Every Tesla owner wants that function

 

[BornToFly]

What are the odds that the Tesla bashing news outlets have "experts" on air tomorrow morning to discuss why the exoskeleton will never work for a pickup, and why Ford's body on frame is so much better....