Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Has anyone been keeping track of all the social media influencers/celebrities (and their follower counts) that have supported or ordered the CyberTruck?

I'm sure I've seen at least 40 people with 50K-5+ million twitter followers saying they've put in orders.

Also approval from Joe Rogan, Jack Dorsey and Andrew Yang among many others.

Yep...but the usual suspects will be sure to poo poo those numbers.

Yahoo news feed will not be pretty I'm sure.
CNBC will have the same drivel about demand.

 

[Navin]

Welcome to the fight against evil, truck drivers. We are glad you are here. Let’s continue to Gentrify Mordor together!!

 

[Johnny Ma]

I loathe yardwork but I can't stop thinking about buying the base level cybertruck with the optional solar panels, an electric mower, electric edger, and starting a lawn mowing business. Am I the only one?

 

[Thekiwi]

This is the sort of FUD we will be getting tomorrow (notice how they had to add the “deposit is low so blah blah blah” after the news was deemed too positive)

 

[jerry33]

I loathe yardwork but I can't stop thinking about buying the base level cybertruck with the optional solar panels, an electric mower, electric edger, and starting a lawn mowing business. Am I the only one?

There is a solar lawn mowing service here. However, I don't use them because they want to cut the grass every single week when that's not even remotely necessary.

 

[Electroman]

Wow, reservations are up to 187k now, per Elon Twitter post 2 hours ago. I would bet over 200k by market opening tomorrow.

What a failure... not!

Edit, 187k... thanks Thekiwi

You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be much less for $100 reservations.

This 187k reservations should be considered as an expression of interest. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

 

[RobStark]

Ironically, Ford Motors was offered an opportunity to by VW after the war, and turned it down thinking the company worthless.

Ford was given the opportunity to take VW for free.

As long as they retooled the factories and rehired workers in Germany.

 

[wipster]

You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be less for $100 reservations. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

We'll know more in about 2 years...

 

[jerry33]

You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be less for $100 reservations. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

You can't compare them because the Cybertruck is really North American (and Australia) only (it's way too large for most other places), whereas the Model 3 is appropriate for all countries. I'd guess the conversion rate will be 70% or 75%.

 

[mongo]

You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be less for $100 reservations. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

It's apples and bananas, but I'd argue a deposit for Cyber truck has a higher chance of completion than a deposit on a (albeit Tesla) typical midsized sedan. Definitely higher than 15%, especially if FSD jumps in price.

 

[electracity]

This is the sort of FUD we will be getting tomorrow (notice how they had to add the “deposit is low so blah blah blah” afte the news was deemed to positive)View attachment 480963

Clearly a great many people who reserved the model 3 did not purchase.

Deposits are a good indicator of excitement. Tesla can likely sell the cybertruck production announced, but the "deposits" are not orders. They are a small loan of money to Tesla to participate in the excitement. They are also a small loan to Tesla for the potential buyer to avoid future regret.

 

[theschnell]

Before the weekend Cybertruck comments in this thread is over, I just want to say that I love the truck just as designed, hope they don’t make any major changes to how it looks, and believe demand will be through the roof after the early adopters get out on the road with it.

I love it! Great work by Elon, Franz, and team!

As an investor, I just hope they did the math correctly on pricing so they still make money, but I believe they did.

 

[Thekiwi]

You can't compare them because the Cybertruck is really North American (and Australia) only (it's way too large for most other places), whereas the Model 3 is appropriate for all countries. I'd guess the conversion rate will be 70% or 75%.

I’m not so sure about that - outside the USA, the $39.9k CT is now the cheapest Tesla available to order (you can’t get the $35.4k SR anywhere other than the US), and it seats 6! Every country has plenty of tradies, small delivery vehicles and truck enthusiasts that are salivating over the CT specs and efficiency compared to their existing vehicles.

 

[MXWing]

This is the sort of FUD we will be getting tomorrow (notice how they had to add the “deposit is low so blah blah blah” afte the news was deemed to positive)View attachment 480963

When’s the last time you thought something was completely horrendous, had zero interest but put down a deposit anyway?

There’s only so many $100 you throw around at things you have no interest in.

I could have put down $1000 but that’s asking a lot to a lot of people for a product that isn’t even the next product which is the Model Y.

 

[bhtooefr]

Yep, excellent point. And if FSD was in full bloom, the CT can just be sent to the big box store and be loaded with materials and drive back to the work site. I would so, so, so, soooo like this to be possible one day.

I can see the appeal of the 8' bed but that changes the length of the vehicle from just under 20' to bumping up to 22' and that means less space in the garage and a cascade of other issues that might even include weakening an exoskeleton vehicle as it gets lengthened (a maybe but I think as a triangle gets longer, it does not increase it's stiffness).

I would be fine with an accessory that lengthens the bed for those that need it. The Subaru Baja offered something like this I think.

This is why my proposal was to take the bed length from the cabin, making an extended cab instead of a crew cab. That's perfectly acceptable in the half-ton (Class 2a) pickup market, where crew cab and 8' bed isn't an available configuration, but extended cab and 8' bed is (although it may be hard to get 18" out of the rear cabin and still have it be useful for passengers - when extended cabs were more popular, they either had very poor legroom, or they used side-facing jump seats... but then a lot of the popularity of an extended cab was that it gave secure storage in the cabin, and space to recline that a regular cab didn't have).

I'm curious whether they'll try smaller and larger stainless steel vehicles. The stainless steel ATV is I think a silent suggestion that they might.

Do we know that the ATV will be stainless, or really anything about it other than it'll be a Cybertruck accessory and it can charge off the truck? What was shown was most likely a very early - really a concept - prototype, AFAIK.

 

[SO16]

Ford and GM should be very afraid.

this video is worth watching.

 

[Electroman]

What are the odds that the Tesla bashing news outlets have "experts" on air tomorrow morning to discuss why the exoskeleton will never work for a pickup, and why Ford's body on frame is so much better....

Can someone for the naive and dummies here, please explain the difference between exoskeleton .vs. body-on-frame?I have an idea of what body on frame means, but what is exoskeleton in this context?

Thank you

 

[jerry33]

I’m not so sure about that - outside the USA, the $39.9k CT is now the cheapest Tesla available to order (you can’t get the $35.4k SR anywhere other than the US), and it seats 6! Every country has plenty of tradies, small delivery vehicles and truck enthusiasts that are salivating over the CT specs and efficiency compared to their existing vehicles.

Doesn't matter how cool it looks or how cost effective it is, if it can't get down the streets or park, it's not going to be accepted.

 

[electracity]

Can someone for the naive and dummies here, please explain the difference between exoskeleton .vs. body-on-frame?I have an idea of what body on frame means, but what is exoskeleton in this context?

Thank you

Cybertruck carrying significant load by skin rigidity as opposed to unibody carrying the load on the framing under the skin

 

[Thekiwi]

Doesn't matter how cool it looks or how cost effective it is, if it can't get down the streets or park, it's not going to be accepted.

Isn’t it skinnier than the model X and shorter than a lot of other pickup trucks?