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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Newcomer here.

Check out the new twitter followers for Elon in the past 3 days: over 150 000! The daily average before cybertruck (after a shocked lull on friday :) ), was around 10 - 15 thousand.

This event will thus, by all appearances, turn out to be a fundamental game changer for Tesla :)
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https://socialblade.com/twitter/user/elonmusk
 
I doubt Cybrtrck is going to be 1 ton heavier than Model X.

For sure RWD Cybertruck.
For Norway and I believe rest of EU with a modern drivers license for cars (class B) the maximum total weight of the car can be 3500kg. That is weight of car plus any permissable load. So say the Cybertruck (or the X for that matter) weighs 2500kg then if the car allows 1800kg of load in the bed then it's not a car. Because 2500kg + 1800kg is more than 3500kg. You also pay taxes on it and toll road fees, ferry fees etc as a lorry and you need a higher license class to be able to drive it legally. And that is regardless of how much load you ACTUALLY has in the bed.
What has been done for Excursions and similar cars here in Norway is derate it. So it can only carry a load of 1000kg in our example when it weighs 2500kg. Then it's legal with a regular license. Though if the police catch you with an actual load of 1500kg you are by definition driving without a license so the car gets less usefull.
To relate this to investments this means in addition to being too big for many Norwegian roads and parking garages, it's also too heavy. People do buy some full-size pickups here in Norwa, but they have lots of disadvantages tax and practicallity wise so my guess is a steady state of 1k-2k per year in Norway.
 
“The thing I am most impressed with is, what did you undesign?” Elon Musk

How do you reduce manufacturing costs in the Stamping, Castings and Paint shops? Get rid of them.
How do you reduce manufacturing costs in the Body Shop? Massively reduce welding requirements and reduce body shop size.
How do you reduce car chassis/frame and body panel costs? Get rid of them.
How do you reduce glass bending/curving costs? Make it flat.
How do you reduce body repair service and insurance costs? Make it undentable.
How do you reduce glass repair service and insurance costs? Make it unbreakable.
How do you reduce corrosion repair service and insurance costs? Make it corrosion resistant.

What do you suppose is the gating factor to pulling the trigger on full production? Further design work? Batteries? Or the steel origami process?
 
Yes, up nicely in premarket.
CNBC has a disgraceful article that does as much as possible to disparage Tesla. Says confuses orders with pre-orders. Won’t even bother posting the link. I’ve just mentally added CNBC to my same mental list as Business Insider.
 
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Would it make sense to delay the full imposition of this rule by 24 hours? It will be hard to avoid all Cybertruck topics today in the investor thread, especially with Elon's 200k pre-orders tweet and the good pre-market price action with TSLA now up to $345, and I guess mods have better things to do than to delete 90% of today's posts? :cool:

Just put the current stock price along with your Cybertruck point and you’re good to go :)
 
The license issue makes me worried about the actual preorder numbers.

I feel that many of The preorder never actual know much about pickups, just like me .
We just think that the vehicle looks cool and prices are so attractive. Then we think we can drive one, then put the preorder

Fast forward to two years later. The sales person get our payment and everything, spend their time, and finally they find that we don’t have the valid license. Now that they have to cancel the order. What a waste of time and resource?

I honestly doubt that there will ever be the case where Tesla will make a vehicle that requires a specialty license to drive, without knowing it'd first require a specialty license to drive--like the Semi.

Even if it's required in certain countries, I would suspect Tesla to modify the vehicle to not require it.
 
I think we need price in range 355-360 to claim a victory on this round. But I guess a lot of ppl will jump back in who were selling before and after reveal, also some shorts will cover who opened positions on friday. So 355+ is probable.

I concur. I'll see if I can re-buy in below $355 and ride the wave. TSLA is currently sitting at $345ish in premarket.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Anybody hear from the TSLAQ crowd lately?

My investment thesis is simply that unlike almost all stocks the market disagrees strongly on TSLA, so it is either strongly over- or under-valued.

Based mostly on the thoughts in the book "Disruptive innovation", Tesla's growth, innovation and the customer satisfaction I am betting on the latter.

So with this simplistic thesis it is essential that I continuously re-evaluate my opinion and the opinion of those I bet against, I do so partly by following Tesla's detractors, including the TSLAQ swamp on Twitter and the RealTesla sub-reddit.

I feel like a simple-minded farmer who can only check that his livestock is healthy by diving into their excrement.

Example:
The fact that the Cybertruck design did not leak out is proof that Tesla can control leaks and thus that all previous leaks were intentional.
Another example:
Like myself, some in TSLAQ try to understand who they are betting against - and see the occasional silly enthusiasm among Tesla product owners as evidence that Tesla investors are gullible. (To be fair, posters of such comments may not actually believe that themselves, they may simply be trying to help their own position by duping others into following them).

PS. There is one additional aspect to my investment thesis, that the mounting evidence of a Climate Crisis is likely to cause more governments to subsidize the transition to sustainable transportation - and electricity production, something that plays into Tesla's hands. The TSLAQ crowd likes to ridicule these subsidies, although they are just a fact of society.

PS. Edited for clarity
 
So now Tesla is finished with product reveals for a while, it looks like Tesla has 10 new vehicle production lines to focus on bringing online in the near future.
These production plans include estimates - we do not know full details of Tesla's plans.
These dates are estimates for first vehicle production. >1k per week is likely 3-6 months later and full capacity likely 6-12 months later.

4Q19 - Model 3 in China
Q120 - Model Y at Fremont
Q320 - Model Y in China
Q320 - Model S Plaid in Fremont/GF1
Q420 - Semi in US (GF1?)
Q121 - Roadster in US
Q221 - Model Y in Europe
Q321 - CyberTruck in US
Q122 - CyberTruck in China, possibly supplying Asia & Europe. (Unconfirmed location)
Q222 - CyberTruck Plaid in US

Remember Elon told Ark Invest earlier this year he expects Tesla to hit an annualised production rate of 1.5 million vehicles in 2021 and 3 million in 2023. And his long term target for Tesla is around 20 million per year.
 
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