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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It has yet to be proven that there Is demand for EV’s. There is proven demand for Tesla’s.
I would phrase that as there is a proven demand for functional EVs that can be used as your primary car, rather than a second car. Right now, that's Tesla, and it will likely stay that way for some time.
 
I hope that this challenge by Ford, acceptance by Tesla, and then backing down by Ford goes viral. Great PR for Tesla (and Ford too if you think about it, especially if they eventually agree to the competition) and great meme fodder.

Just brilliant (and free) marketing by Tesla/Elon yet again. Same as the Porsche/Tesla track time competition.
 
I would phrase that as there is a proven demand for functional EVs that can be used as your primary car, rather than a second car. Right now, that's Tesla, and it will likely stay that way for some time.
I think this started with a link to a (partial) interview with a Toyota flak who was trying to suggest that Toyota would have an EV when the market was ready for them.

Since Tesla has proven there is a market by selling EVs as fast as they can make them, this is a tacit admission by Toyota that Toyota is not capable of making a salable EV. That is, there is no market for an EV made by Toyota. Which is really sad considering that even the sad étron sells. The Toyota flak was also apparently unaware (or unwilling to put forward) that Toyota does have plans for a compliance EV -- just for the markets where they are required (first China, then Europe). Since the US is busy rolling back emissions standards and Japan is backing Toyota's hydrogen play, Toyota has no plans for EVs for either of those markets.
 
We now go live to BMW's market outlook:


(Yes, that's a burning BMW being put out by sewage ;) )

This made my day...........thanks Karen! Can you imagine if this was a Tesla instead of a BMW? It would be all over the internet now, and Dana, Lilo, and Lora would be 'drinking from the fountain' on this story.

I am thinking this is a tremendous opportunity to go after VW and the German Auto Industry for not wanting to install the Urea injection kit in their diesels to make them emission compliant in the beginning. But now, instead of simply injecting urine, they went with a full Septic injection system

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BMW's new Septic Injection Control (SIC) - it controls emissions by overwhelming them with..............more emissions.
 
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I was thinking about Daimler's investment in Tesla (2009) for 9% of company for $50 million. Now that Tesla market value is very close to Daimlers (60.2 to 62B) selling that investment for $780 million probably doesn't feel like the best call. Let's try to remember this when our fingers are hovering above the "sell" button.

Trailhound
 
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I was thinking about Daimler's investment in Tesla (2009) for 9% of company for $50 million. Now that Tesla market value is very close to Daimlers (60.2 to 62B) selling that investment for $780 million probably doesn't feel like the best call. Let's try to remember this when our fingers our hovering above the "sell" button.

Trailhound

Someday that 9% share may be worth more than Daimler... ;)
 
I think this started with a link to a (partial) interview with a Toyota flak who was trying to suggest that Toyota would have an EV when the market was ready for them.

Since Tesla has proven there is a market by selling EVs as fast as they can make them, this is a tacit admission by Toyota that Toyota is not capable of making a salable EV. That is, there is no market for an EV made by Toyota. Which is really sad considering that even the sad étron sells. The Toyota flak was also apparently unaware (or unwilling to put forward) that Toyota does have plans for a compliance EV -- just for the markets where they are required (first China, then Europe). Since the US is busy rolling back emissions standards and Japan is backing Toyota's hydrogen play, Toyota has no plans for EVs for either of those markets.
Frankly, ever since Toyota sided with Washington (and he who does not deserve to be named) and against the more rigorous MPG goals in force in California, it doesn’t matter a hoot to me what Toyota does or doesn’t come out with. So long as they remain on the wrong side of the table, I wouldn’t buy another Toyota product, have any of mine serviced at a dealership, nor recommend one.
Robin
 
I'm proud of Electrek for taking Toyota to task at the LA Auto Show and publishing an excerpt of the interview afterward. Interesting read.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/25/inte...arketing-chief-says-theres-no-demand-for-evs/

I propose Toyota may want to name their first full EV the "Ostrich" -- if it ever comes out, that is.

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I wanted to look at the top 10 auto companies and get a rough idea of where they stand on EV investments. For me their survival is all about going all in on EV investments as early as possible.

I noticed a lot of companies are promising a lot of EV investment in the future, but how much they end up actually investing might be much lower. I don't really trust a lot of these companies to follow through on their promises.

Below are the companies listed by current market cap (in square brackets) and their proposed EV investments.



Toyota [202]
2 billion over 4 years = 500 million per year
Toyota to invest $2 billion in developing electric vehicles in Indonesia

VW [88]
30 billion by 2023 = 7.5 billion per year
Electric vehicles are a tiny piece of the global car market, but Volkswagen is making a huge bet on them. It doesn’t have a choice.

Tesla [60]
?

Daimler [56]
23 billion battery purchase by 2030 = 2.3 billion per year
Daimler is trying to set the standard for EV batteries

GM [51]
Not great info but looks very low
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/gm-investment-bolt-ev-plant-new-electric-model/
GM's race to outflank Tesla may be stalling out

Honda [51]
35 billion by 2025 = 7 billion per year
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/23/cars/honda-electric-cars-europe/index.html

BMW [48]
6.5 billion over ? years - they are lagging
https://www.businessinsider.com/bmw...ing-electric-vehicle-uptake-2019-10?r=US&IR=T
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...n-customers-arent-demanding-evs/#3e111b2a141b

Ferrari [42]
Hybrids only afaict
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/ferrari-first-quarter-results-hybrid-electric

Ford [35]
11 billion by 2022 = 3.5 billion per year
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-a...40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUKKBN1F30YZ

Hyundai [25]
35 billion by 2025 on self driving = 7 billion per year
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...sts-disappointing-third-quarter-idUKKBN1X30F2

So looking at all this I will predict the biggest winners and losers in terms of surviving the impending auto apocalypse.

1 Tesla first obviously
2 VW - they seem to be making real investments
3 Daimler seem to have made some moves with battery purchases
4 Ferrari - I think they are impervious with their high end - low volume approach - their cars are more status and art than transport. With the roadster they might have to make the change, but it will be easy because they have high price and low volume.
5 Honda - Best placed Japanese auto company - might succeed at the expense of Toyota.
6 Hyundai - SK will protect their sole car company - but I think they will waste their FSD investment
7 Ford - Will be dragged by CyberTruck into EVs. Being close to the epi-center of the EV revolution has advantages.
8 BMW - the laggard of the Germans while they are losing the most from Tesla
9 GM - a dysfunctional company which already went bankrupt once...
10 Toyota - completely blind to the cliff they are about to jump off.

I think any company in the bottom 6 can go bankrupt, merged or need bailing out by their governments.
 
Frankly, ever since Toyota sided with Washington (and he who does not deserve to be named) and against the more rigorous MPG goals in force in California, it doesn’t matter a hoot to me what Toyota does or doesn’t come out with. So long as they remain on the wrong side of the table, I wouldn’t buy another Toyota product, have any of mine serviced at a dealership, nor recommend one.
Robin
In the interest of fairness, can you note you are talking about Washington, DC ? We don't want anyone confusing WA with DC ;)