Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

The Model Y ramp up at Fremont will depend largely upon the continued successful buildout of the Battery Workshop at GF3/Shanghai.

GF3 will be at 3K/wk at some point in 2020H1, and we have strong signs the Fremont is already at 7K/wk. That's 10K packs/wk that have to come from GF1/Sparks. So Model Y will be battery cell constrained in 2020H1 until GF3 can begin their own pack production from locally sourced cells, freeing up those extra 3K packs per week for Model Y at Fremont. Whew, logistics!

Panasonic will (as usual) be under continued pressure to increase cell production throughout 2020. I think the ultimate limiting factor on Model 3/Y output at Fremont is stamping capacity, at about 14K/wk with the existing Schuler press.

That 14K capacity could be allocated as demand requires, ie: 5K Model 3 and 9K Model Y to satisfy initial high demand for Y, and then tilting back toward 3 when GF4 brings more Y capacity online in 2021, and Fremont continues to be the sole source of Model 3 for Europe.

Cheers!

P.S. I think TE needs to build a Gigafactory in Western Australia: Solar, Power-walls/packs and Megapacks. It'll be huge given nascent demand for TE products.

I agree, I was thinking about where Tesla would locate car factories if they were building say 20 Million cars per year, I still can't see them ever building a car factory in Australia.

However an energy storage battery factory makes a lot of sense, for the domestic market, and for export in the nearby Asia pacific region..

Particularly if they can mine most of the raw materials here, and power the processing with renewable energy.

I'm in 100% agreement that lowering the price of embedded energy in product is the best way to obtain meaningful productivity gains, if a factory is highly automated, the cost of raw materials and energy start to become significant... as robots work for the same wages everywhere.

 

[Todd Burch]

Anyone else notice we haven’t had any birds around this forum lately? Or goats?

It’s like they all flew south for the winter or something.

 

[ZachF]

All Tesla factories side by side to scale

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

Tesla should rename Fremont to "Gigafactory 0"

I mean, now that it produces close to half a million cars, that's about a "gigagram" of electric vehicles.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Good spot. But there’s also something in the bible about camels finding it easier to pass through the eye of a needle than for the rich to enter the gates of heaven.

I surely don't want to even talk about religion, but that analogy is one of the greatest mis-translations in world history. It was actually, "It's easier for a ROPE to go through the eye of a needle" - the word rope and camel were written nearly the same, and it was mis-translated. But clearly, "rope" makes the analogy make far more sense (hint: what goes through the eye of a needle? A single strand of rope - a thread).

What the heck does a camel have to do with a needle?

 

[dc_h]

THAT would blow my mind. More than probably anything I've seen this year including the Cybertruck.

I feel it is out of the question that Elon would ever end up on CNBC as a guest.

He broadcasts from San Francisco once a year. If If Elon does a show with Cramer, it will be on his turf and include a tour.

 

[heltok]

No, it's the submarine dude

This made me think. Karpathy said that Tesla may or may not be developing a submarine:
Multi-Task Learning in the Wilderness

Are submarines good for anything non military?

Well actually they are pretty good at going fast and efficient:
https://www.quora.com/Is-a-submarine-faster-than-a-boat

The only downside is that submarines require oxygen for the staff and or engines? Can be solved with nuclear, but yeah nuclear is a bit problematic... But do you know what does not require any oxygen or nuclear? An electric autonomous submarine.

Some first principles it might actually make sense to build a HUGE electric autonomous submarine to replace ocean carriers?!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone else notice we haven’t had any birds around this forum lately? Or goats?

It’s like they all flew south for the winter or something.

Don't ask me. I'm still traumatized by your 'giant spinning head' avatar...

 

[AshIm]

First post

Crossed Q3'19 for the best quarter in Netherlands. Good times.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Let's not be surprised if Cramer one-ups the other CNBC employees, and is able to get Elon to sit for an interview on the "Mad Money" show.

I strongly doubt we will see that. Musk on cramers show. Remember when Cramer was asked whether he would buy tsla on ipo he said I won’t even rent one. He also called musk an embarrassment after a earns conference call

 

[M3Rider]

Anyone else notice we haven’t had any birds around this forum lately? Or goats?

It’s like they all flew south for the winter or something.

Actually, don't get excited, those are trolls from Russia and they are not hurting from short positions, so whenever the agenda tells them to come here, they will come.

They might be just taking a timeout because they were identified.

 

[SunCatcher]

I strongly doubt we will see that. Musk on cramers show. Remember when Cramer was asked whether he would buy tsla on ipo he said I won’t even rent one. He also called musk an embarrassment after a earns conference call

Maybe our Overlord Musk started it when he called Cramer a simulation? Perhaps Cramer didn't realize that it was meant as a compliment...

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[RFernatt]

Just sent an email to Editor-In-Chief of Canadian magazine, Renovation Contractor. Our voices need to be heard.


Dear Mr. Jim Caruk, Editor-In-Chief, Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine

Kudos to Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine for your December 2019 / January 2020 Edition article "Charge It - Everything you need to know about installing electric vehicle chargers", by Alex Newman. Glad to see more and more Green articles and an Annual Green Issue to boot and I enjoy reading your bi-monthly Magazine. From what is otherwise an excellently written and informative article, I do have one issue which I feel requires correction in your next issue. Alex states “New EVs can travel about 100 km on one charge, with some going as far as 160 km”.

Personally, I know my fully electric vehicle, Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD, which I have been driving since June 2018 gets 525 km on one charge. Other EVs currently available have even longer range, such as the Tesla Model S Performance at 560 km on one charge. Heck, even the yet to be released 2020 Porche Taycan Turbo has a range of 323 km. Links to EPA results are provided below.

With information so readily available on Google, why was Alex’s information not checked for accuracy. The article portrays the myth that EVs are only short commuter City range vehicles. Range anxiety is no longer a problem for many EVs. EVs without compromise. Today.

tesla m3 EPA range

Porche Taycan Turbo EPA range

Yours Truly,

Saw your post and the following on LinkedIn about the same time and it reminded me that electrification FUD goes back a ways.

 

[Curt Renz]

I strongly doubt we will see that. Musk on cramers show. Remember when Cramer was asked whether he would buy tsla on ipo he said I won’t even rent one. He also called musk an embarrassment after a earns conference call

My related post yesterday: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Mkorpal]

Saw your post and the following on LinkedIn about the same time as a reminder that electrification FUD goes back a ways.

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They did, however, accurately predict the demise of horse powered transportation.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think some Cybertruck buyers will reconsider and get a Model Y.

The whole worry about Tesla vehicles Osborning other Tesla vehicles is overstated.

Model 3 did it to Model S to some extent, and Model Y will do it to Model X to a similar extent.

That is because Model 3/Y were both smaller and significantly cheaper.

While people are critical Tesla navigated a tricky mine field in Q1 2019... that is in the past now..

Predictions of 1,000 Model Y per week by say June/July seem right to me, Model Y will not Osborne Model 3 to any great extent, as it will be initially higher priced, and available in smaller volumes.

CT will be shipping probably late 2021 again these are now the higher priced variants and in smaller volumes. by that time Model Y will be ramped to a decent volume... So to get CT instead of Model Y, the customer has to want a CT...

I see all Tesla vehicles as significantly different..

Contradictory anecdotal data: I had plans for quite some time (years) to get a model 3, my wife was 100% onboard and even sat in one a few times when we were near a showroom. During our discussion about the CyberTruck (just observations, can't fit it anywhere unfortunately) - I said I guess we are still getting the 3 then. Her reply: "ABSOLUTELY NOT - THERE IS NO WAY WE ARE GETTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE SUV" - which means we are getting the Y instead of the 3 now (X was never an option - just way too expensive for us for a car purchase).

I think its likely there are many who buy a 3 as it was the only cheaper Tesla available, regardless of their form factor preference (they just want a Tesla and are prepared to forego some preferences to get one) - but once new form factors at a similar price are available they will shift to them in significant number.

 

[JustMe]

Saw your post and the following on LinkedIn about the same time and it reminded me that electrification FUD goes back a ways.

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View attachment 487707

That’s going on my bathroom wall.

 

[Navin]

Elon now has 30 mil + Twitter followers. That’s legit.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Let's not be surprised if Cramer one-ups the other CNBC employees, and is able to get Elon to sit for an interview on the "Mad Money" show.

Why would Elon consent to talk to a criminal stock manipulator?

 

[M3Rider]

Elon now has 30 mil + Twitter followers. That’s legit.

So, that's 3M since CT? Nice.

 

[Todd Burch]

It’s been 25 years since my last class in basic differential equations, but given the nearly vertical graph of deliveries in the Netherlands for Q4, I predict +♾ deliveries for this quarter. Plus or minus approx. 300.

Based on recent trends, the following is my financial advice for achieving financial freedom:

1. Put your life savings in TSLA.

2. Con your elderly neighbors out of THEIR life savings. Invest that in TSLA.

3. Enjoy your profits.

But seriously:

Spoiler: Q4 Delivery Prediction

83,000 and not a vehicle more.