Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

I’ll take the phase 1 deal with China agreeing to respect and protect business IP and to increase buying US agricultural products.

Trump 'Very Close' to U.S.-China Trade Deal, Averting December Tariffs

Most media outlets have changed the “close to a deal” to “Trump already signed.”

Having seen this play out before, I remain skeptical.

Not saying I don't want this trade war over and done with, just saying after all of the "It's been agreed" news its going to take more than some distant hearsay to convince me.

 

[Causalien]

Oh boy. The repocalypse.

The temp facilities will eventually become permanent. 20% upward movements for all stocks in 2020

 

[kengchang]

Elevators secured.

No, it's the submarine dude

 

[jerry33]

He didn't say that the car would cost more, he said the FSD option would cost more. (At least that is what I remember.) And Tesla has said that putting your $100 down for the Cybertruck locks in the FSD price.

I believe this actually refers back to the Investor Day, when Elon said the cars would appreciate in value due to robotaxi and FSD. He didn't say the cars would sell for more (though it's somewhat implied from "increase in value"). Of course FSD will cost more as time goes on.

 

[StealthP3D]

Right. But if you don't know what the other side's limit is and you are wanting to pick up shares quickly without driving the price up the 'discovering' that by buying shares but stopping once you breach the sell wall until it drops back down again. Just trying to make sense of the stair step.

Trying to understand your potential scenario here. Whenever a large buyer wants to establish a large position they need to contend with their buying causing higher prices for future additional purchases. And if there are a lot of shorts wanting to cover, the two groups are in direct competition for the same shares.

I just don't see the dynamics as being much different except that the shorts absolutely have to cover at some point while a potential long can decide not to buy (or not to increase their position further) once the price rises too high for their comfort. Are you theorizing maybe the big oil money that is working on establishing a large position is stopping their buying at predetermined stairsteps to let the shorts cover so as not to run up the price so high that the shorts panic and run it up even higher?

I guess I can see that as a possibility. There is definitely something at work to create this kind of pattern and if we exclude market manipulators (just for the sake of argument) then I think that might make a lot of sense. So, even though both groups want to buy a lot of shares as cheaply as possible, the oil money is being more calm and rational about it and using time to their advantage. On the other hand, the more orderly price rise could encourage short-sellers to wait this out (for the price drop they think must be coming). Because one group knows the future shares are worth a lot more and the other group is being forced to buy shares they think are already obscenely over-valued.It's like a game of poker where you have to get inside the head of your opponents to come out ahead.

 

[mongo]

Sure, get as many delivery in China for q4 as possible. But 5k m3 isn't going to move the needle much unless that's the difference between meeting 360k 2019 or not.

As for Q1 2020. Even though China has shown that they'd do over time on lunar new year for tesla, the traditional culture for sales is hard to get over.

Usually those who doesn't meet the sales numbers will do everything they can to meet them pre new years. Those who already met their quota will slow down and start thinking about prepping food for new years, getting ready for all the blind dates for potential arranged marriage etc.

It's much more efficient to let them take the new years off properly and have a refreshed sales and delivery staff after new years as there is a culture of wearing new cloths, driving new cars and buying new houses after new years.

How about this: No MIC deliveries in Q4, only prestaging. Deliver as many as possible once Q1 starts until Chinese New Year Eve on January 24th. Then on January 29th, Tesla reports record Q4 profits, along with the count of MIC deliveries, and a 10k/wk production rate at Fremont, plus maybe City Autopilot roll out as a little something extra.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla explained why accounts receivables has been elevated in recent quarters. It is due to a large gap in timing between vehicle delivery and cash collection from European banks. The gap in Europe is 28 days, China is 7 and US is 3. Due to the large increase of Model 3 sales in Europe this year, A/R has jumped up.

This sounds like more Martin Viecha BS. AR jumped up in Q3 2018, when revenue jumped. There has been no meaningful change this year with all the European Model 3 deliveries.

I do believe there is a delay getting cleared funds from the buyer's lender, but 28 days is a joke. Tesla delivers so many cars in the last week of the quarter that it only takes a 3-4 delay to produce $1b+ of AR. And the delay can be longer when selling to a large leasing company, as is very common in Europe.

Just to embellish upon the mod's mod up here from the bleachers, it seems to have morphed into a saying in American sports, where the game is not over until the end, where the national anthem is sung -- usually by a female singer of operatic proportions.

It is a popular saying in US sports, but it still refers to the end of an opera. They sing the national anthem before the game here, not after.

 

[Mkorpal]

How about this: No MIC deliveries in Q4, only prestaging. Deliver as many as possible once Q1 starts until Chinese New Year Eve on January 24th. Then on January 29th, Tesla reports record Q4 profits, along with the count of MIC deliveries, and a 10k/wk production rate at Fremont, plus maybe City Autopilot roll out as a little something extra.

Oh, and hand over the 1st dozen or so Ys.

 

[Curt Renz]

No, it's the submarine dude

Das U-Boot

 

[Sudre]

The Street - today:

Tesla discussion begins at the 4:43 minute mark.

At least this is the position real investors are supposed to take. Don't get me wrong I am not a Cramer fan but there was a criteria that would change his mind. His mind changed once it was met. That's how you are supposed to invest. Not the moronic Shorts method of goal post moving and fake news.

 

[Sudre]

If the Consensus is now Tesla is a profiting company, shouldn't the SP be going up?

oh wait it is...

Shouldn't all Shorts be jumping ship?

I think someone is providing cover for the majors to get out leaving retail shorts holding the bag.

 

[JustMe]

If the Consensus is now Tesla is a profiting company, shouldn't the SP be going up?

oh wait it is...

I think someone is providing cover for the majors to get out leaving retail shorts holding the bag.

No, no, no. I can’t believe that, because it would be unethical.

 

[SarahsDad]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

Full episode is now available (more talk about Tesla than prior linked video clip)

Mad Money - December 11, 2019

Interesting quote at 3:10: "(Elon Musk) once evicerated me at a dinner party" - I wonder whether this affected his prior opinion of Tesla

 

[Boomer19]

If the Consensus is now Tesla is a profiting company, shouldn't the SP be going up?

oh wait it is...

Shouldn't all Shorts be jumping ship?

View attachment 487625

I think someone is providing cover for the majors to get out leaving retail shorts holding the bag.

15mm net shares covered between 5/31 and 11/29

still over 28m short.

 

[kengchang]

15mm net shares covered between 5/31 and 11/29

still over 28m short.

From yesterday, down to 26M now (assuming it's correct)

 

[ZeApelido]

TMC forum stats say Cybertruck sub-forum has more topics and messages in 3 weeks than Model Y forum in 9 months.

#marketinggenius

 

[FrankSG]

It appears that people actually experienced in short selling would do both, i.e. short sell Porsche (i.e. VW) and buy TSLA for the proceeds (minus the premiums on the short sale) - in the belief that this would outperform (additional) TSLA shares bought on margin.

Not that I would trust myself to go there.

Yeah, that's too risky for me. Just holding the TSLA shares I am holding for 10 years should in all likelihood set me up financially for the rest of my life. I'm putting a % of those shares into options at times when I think there's a really good opportunity (like Jan'22 calls before Q3). But I feel no need to buy more shares on margin or short other companies to buy extra TSLA shares. Risk/reward ratio is not good on that for me personally.

 

[mtndrew1]

From yesterday, down to 26M now (assuming it's correct)

View attachment 487630

 

[dc_h]

Reuters - today: Thyssenkrupp in talks with Tesla about German factory: Handelsblatt

Good to see. Thyssenkrupp is an ancient family and they build a big percent of major projects in Europe. Most airports seem to be them and they are part of the elites in every country in Europe. Like Shanghai, they seem to have the right people lining up to drive the project.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Just sent an email to Editor-In-Chief of Canadian magazine, Renovation Contractor. Our voices need to be heard.


Dear Mr. Jim Caruk, Editor-In-Chief, Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine

Kudos to Renovation Contractor Canadian Magazine for your December 2019 / January 2020 Edition article "Charge It - Everything you need to know about installing electric vehicle chargers", by Alex Newman. Glad to see more and more Green articles and an Annual Green Issue to boot and I enjoy reading your bi-monthly Magazine. From what is otherwise an excellently written and informative article, I do have one issue which I feel requires correction in your next issue. Alex states “New EVs can travel about 100 km on one charge, with some going as far as 160 km”.

Personally, I know my fully electric vehicle, Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD, which I have been driving since June 2018 gets 525 km on one charge. Other EVs currently available have even longer range, such as the Tesla Model S Performance at 560 km on one charge. Heck, even the yet to be released 2020 Porche Taycan Turbo has a range of 323 km. Links to EPA results are provided below.

With information so readily available on Google, why was Alex’s information not checked for accuracy. The article portrays the myth that EVs are only short commuter City range vehicles. Range anxiety is no longer a problem for many EVs. EVs without compromise. Today.

tesla m3 EPA range

Porche Taycan Turbo EPA range

Yours Truly,